October 11, 2009 at 03:03 #12877
I thought ramblings would be a more accurate term than musings. <!– s:lol: –><!– s:lol: –>
Quite a few NH folk seem keen on trying to spot the next big thing, by contributing to threads on novice hurdlers, Juvenile hurdlers, Irish Novice Chasers, but the main thing I’m interested in in NH racing are the staying h’cap chases – there is usually at least one each Saturday that is challenging to be the feature race of the day. These are the races I’m mainly interested in watching, and also in betting in.
First of all, congratulations to <b>Carvillshill</b>, breeder of <b>Beat The Boys</b>, on his victory today.
I hope NATD doesn’t have a midwinter slump again.
In the Munster National on Sunday, I’m mainly interested in <b>Dashing George</b> after his promising Kerry National performance, and I hope that <b>Operation Houdini</b> runs well as well. I worried that maybe Operation Houdini was ruined by racing too much last autumn.[/color:25hghdwh]
Someone on the betfair forum is really keen on <b>Northern Alliance</b> for the Grand National, but there seems to be little indication from Tony Martin that the horse will be well-suited by races of more than 3m. Looking at his pedigree, there doesn’t seem to be too much hindrance.
"It was nice to see him get the three miles but the runner-up (Church Island) was coming back at him at the death and I wouldn’t have liked the race to have been another furlong."
"Ruby was more confident than I was about the winner getting the trip."
There seem to be quite a few conspiracy theorists, who will argue that Martin is sandbagging us, but from watching a couple of series of Big Brother I have the conviction that people are pretty much as they say they are. (Whenever someone is accused of having a gameplan, (and acting one way rather than another because of it) I tend to dismiss the notion.)
It could be that Martin has a horse that is effective at 2.5 to 4m, but he thinks it is effective at 2.5 to 3m.
[/color:25hghdwh]October 11, 2009 at 03:14 #252788carvillshillParticipant
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Thanks Gerald, but it was actually my uncle and namesake who bred the horse!
I’ve been studying the Munster National for ages but can’t find a bet- Green Mile is an obvious chance for God, Parsons Pistol might find 3 miles a bit sharp on this ground, those at the bottom might just be a little outclassed- a race to watch with PP one to bear in mind for the staying mudfests later on. Cornas will take beating for Nick Williams in the 2 miler but is priced accordingly.October 11, 2009 at 03:27 #252791moehatParticipant
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I rather fancied Treacle in the Munster National.[was tempted to have an ew on Aggies Lad but have stuck with Treacle [no pun intended].October 11, 2009 at 03:39 #252792
A typical Gerald TRF error!
How big are the fences at Limerick? Apparently Green Mile is a littlish horse, and the fences were too big for him at Listowel last year.October 11, 2009 at 14:06 #252805peter .hParticipant
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I don’t think they’re too big for him. He may not be my personal pick of the bunch, but i’d put him in there…
There’s a race on Thursday; the 4:45 at Punchestown that has really grabbed my attention. It’s a 3m, 1 and has some really notable names in there…
Notre Pere, War of Attrition, Chelsea Harbour among others. This one is going to be an awesome race. My money at the moment is going towards Notre Pere (not surprising considering he’s on my ‘to watch’ list)October 11, 2009 at 16:57 #252826
That’s interesting. I’ll have to check what weight Notre Pere has. He’s supposed to be making his seasonal debut against Kauto Star at Down Royal, but that’s only because he’s got very few options.
I’m pleased that
is entered at Cheltenham on Friday, as he didn’t run in the latter part of last season, and I’d fancy him a bit more than stablemate Backstage if he could get into the GN.
edit: It’s not a h’cap – you’re barred! Going is currently Good at Punchestown. Will they only run NP on Soft ground, or is it that he is restricted to that because he is seen to best effect on it? (Can’t believe it isn’t soft everywhere – I got soaked through three times this week.)October 11, 2009 at 20:12 #252855
Ahh, I only start these threads to pick Moe’s brain
Couldn’t believe how Dashing George drifted from 10 to 20 in the space of 5 mins on betfair just before the off.
For the record
2nd Dashing George
3rd Paddy Pub
Operation Houdini apparently made a major blunder near the end, but I missed it.October 11, 2009 at 21:31 #252868peter .hParticipant
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edit: It’s not a h’cap – you’re barred! Going is currently Good at Punchestown. Will they only run NP on Soft ground, or is it that he is restricted to that because he is seen to best effect on it? (Can’t believe it isn’t soft everywhere – I got soaked through three times this week.)
It’s not a handicap? But according to RP.co.uk it says that;
Casey Jones and Notre Pere are carrying 11-10
One Cool Cookie, Royal County Star and War of Attrition have 11-6
Chelsea Harbour and Kilcrea Castle have 11-3
And Ponmeoath has 11-0
I could easily be wrong and have buggered something up along the lines, but does that not make it a handicap? (hard to believe i’ve been into racing for 11 years)October 11, 2009 at 21:41 #252871moehatParticipant
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Have only just got home; got waylaid by lots of interesting people on my way back. Kept changing my mind, but the trainer has got such a good strike rate at Limerick. Wish I’d backed it earlier in the week. Looks like Dashing George has got his jumping together, and Paddys Pub will be worth keeping an eye on in staying chases. Have now got enough money to cover my Cesarewitch bets.October 11, 2009 at 22:17 #252878
its a Conditions Race, but you’re right, the weights make it look like a h’cap. Penalties will be for winning a certain grade of chase since a certain date.
I’ve had a check with myself, and noticed that the thread title says chasers and not chases, so officially we can discuss it. I am now waiting for someone to come along and say officially that this thread belongs in the Lays & Plays section. I suppose its just a question of how this thread develops.
Its quite funny, I had hardly ever had a bet on Irish racing before last Christmas, and now I feel fairly at home with it, despite not having too many bets on it since.
One I’m interested in following this season is
One Cool Cookie
. I had got it into my head that staying chasers in Ireland run over 2m4f-2m5f quite a lot, but here we are, and they’re actually running in 3m races for a change. I still haven’t seen a video of the Irish National, so I’m not too sure whether it was the jockey’s or the horse’s decision to jump the dolled off last fence.October 12, 2009 at 19:34 #253040
I’m pleased that an early decision has been announced that Notre Pere won’t be running on Thursday. That should ensure that the bulk of the rest run, though they probably won’t be too keen on the second-season chaser Casey Jones conceding weight, however they’d have known about the Grade 1 penalty before they entered.
Okay, lets see what there is for Saturday . . .October 15, 2009 at 20:12 #253500
Casey Jones was chased up early by Carberry to join One Cool Cookie. Maybe that’s what he needs, to race prominently? Also said to need Goodish ground. Anyway, next stop the Hennessy, apparently.
I got betfair to add him to the Grand National market this morning.
Royal County Star was disappointing.October 15, 2009 at 20:31 #253501
Another enigmatic character running here – Boychuk. (Forgot to get him added to the GN market.)
Someone wrote on the betfair forum several weeks ago that Always Waining is in good form. [edit: correction, didn’t say in good form, said being aimed at the National ]
Parsons Legacy won this last year.
I’ve found an interesting quote about Three Mirrors, from over a year ago referring to last year’s meeting:-
18Apr08 Ayr (20GS ,RPR151)
He is a progressive horse and will have a month’s break, and then he could go for the Kerry National or one of the big three-mile handicaps at the Cheltenham October meeting. He has to go left-handed and have the ground right – [trainer]
Maljimar will always remind people of . . . .
. . . and AP and Jonjo who’ve got some rag running.October 15, 2009 at 21:26 #253502
Oooh, someone else has added Boychuk to the GN market instead.
We’re going to have some fun betting in the next few months.
I had better start putting in some overtime to pay for it.October 16, 2009 at 19:36 #253637
Gosh, Always Waining was a bit of a revelation. I only got back into the saddle a year ago, so I’ve never seen the horse run a good race.
When the Irish mafia horse came in by 3 points just before the off I was thinking Fist must be on. I’ll go and check now.
Don’t know what the matter has been with Parson’s Legacy for this year, but something is.
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