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Hi Sorry
I was not very clear the data was for Turf Handicaps & Stakes 8f or greater.
If you want to be ultra selective then by adding Sire Pareto & Colt will improve the Strike rate.
Sire Pareto & Colt 17/21 Strike rate 81%
11-1111-1-1-30431-1111111/1
The full list for both sets of criteria (Warts & All) are at the google link below
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … VZcMIs5rBA
From a Personal point of view I have many alerts set up to remind me that certain runners are worth studying further.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Onefurlongout
If you are trying claw back losses with Dutch Betting your stakes will rise very quickly. Also your profit on each dutch bet will vary on the number of selections and odds.
One method would be to set a standard profit of say £50.
Return a profit of £50.00
4/1 = satke £32.10
4/1 = £32.10
3/1 = £40.12
25/1 = £6.17Total loss £110.49
If the first bet loses you now need to retrieve £110.49 Plus your £50 profit from that bet.
Next bet would be
9/4 = £168.39
9/4 =£168.39If successful would return you lossess from the first bet plus £50 profit and £50 profit for the second bet.
Having said that you would have laid out £447.27 to make a profit of £100 you are betting odds of 2/9
Personally if I were ever to use a Staking plan to retrieve losses I would want around 50% strike rate and even then according to Timeform you can expect a losing run of 10 consecutive bets after 2048 bets
If its a system then the fewer filters the better
Example
Sir Mark Prescott/Seb Sanders in Handicaps & Stakes 8f or more in June & July41/81 Strike rate = 50% and Average winning SP 2/1
Last 50 runs
120243113-101111111-0650-110322111121111332-2152101005
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Good Life
I have updated my google links to include this weekends races.
Good Luck
Monster
VDW “The Handicap Book was bought for its races to come feature. As older readers will recall, it used to give the following week’s cards and alphabetical list of horses with trainers’ entries enabling me to study well in advance. Horses could be entered in just one or any number of races and the eventually selected one, if indeed the horse ran, could prove most interesting as indeed could the decision not to run.”
I will try and update this link as new entries apear for this week only.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … fF3tbjF-CA
For those that are interested the following link is for horses who are running for the first time since being gelded.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … jLB8rT6jcA
Good Luck
Monster
Hello Ahoy
I was very politely told that I am not allowed to mention commercial sites on this forum and some of my stats are found by this method. It still means some donkey work is needed though.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Good Life
Its not an angle I have studied with Sir Michael Stoute but as a whole wearing headgear 35/2004 17.2% Strike rate -14% ROI
Winners from last season wearing Visor first time (I don’t know how many losers there were)
Allegreto Visor 12/1
Duchess Royal 5/1
Greek Well 8/1And I don’t know if you would count these
Wearing Blinkers first timeMARAAHEL switched from visor to blinkers 9/4
Ancient Clture switched from visor to blinkers 5/2Good Luck
Monster
Hello Ahoy
Good to hear from you, sorry for the late reply but had not noticed your post.
Yes I still keep a close eye on on Trainer and yes Stoute still can do the business and not just handicaps. the attached is First runs from the stable with a little extra criteria.
Also its easier to follow certain owners as they can be creatures of habit too.
Check out Sir Edmund Loder, (relative of David Loder) when he has handicap runners, again certain criteria needed.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … kOFTJ9EsdA
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … 75Uok10qQA
I mostly concentrate on handicaps and have developed my own class ratings since the Peach Forum days.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Seagull
Thanks for the reply and yes I agree that Trainers are creatures of habit.
M Jarvis also keeps a few saved for Handicaps at various tracks in August.
17/44 (The 17 winners were unique) ROI +160%.I will follow your excellent thread with interest.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Seagull
I think that T4C is a great concept, as is O4C (Owners for Courses)
I’m sure you do well with some very decent priced winners which quickly give a healthy bank balance and of course with the longer priced winners You don’t need that many of them, especially as BF odds are much better with longer odds, and 50/1 SP may be 75.00 plus on BF.
Like yourself I have alerts for T4C but they are usually linked to T/J combinations. Secodly, the fewer filters the better.
For instance M Jarvis does well at Nottingham and appears to be in profit come what may.
M Jarvis Nottingham 23/ 106 21.7% Strike rate ROI +16.4%
I could look at which type of race, days off track, class droppers etc do well for him at the track, but I find that sometimes the Jockey that is booked is a good starting point.
J Quinn 0 /3
M Henry 0 /7
M Hills 0 /2
M Tebbutt 0/ 12P Robinson 19 /62 30.6% Strike rate, ROI +41%
So having established that the boking of P Robinson improves the strike rate is there another simple rule that will improve that strike rate further.
Straight 3/ 21 14.3% Trike rate -41.7%
Clearly the Straight Track is not that good from an investment point of view.
But the left hand round course is a different proposition.Lefthand Round 16/ 41 39.0% strike rate, ROI + 84.4%
Good Luck
Monster
Hi David
have you thought about Trainer/Jockey Course Stats
Swallow Forest Barron/P Fessey Course combo 4/59
Barron/Mckeown Course combo 18/54
Good Luck
Monster
Hi AP
Empowered was first named Rocky Royale.
Not a big fan of Dosage, but you need to go back to Benny The Dip to find a Derby Winner with no points in either the Solid or Professional sections
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Formath
APM is exceptional at judging pace in NH races and of course today was able to stalk off the pace as expected. VDW Deja Vu, when he said that Kempton was not the track for Forgive ‘N’ Forget.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Formath
Do you think J P McManus is running Binocular because he thinks that Celestial Needs a stiffer test.
Racing Post Quote Said that CH got aflat footed at Doncaster and needs a fast pace which was why he wanted the Triumph Hurdle.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Artemis
I have Mia’s Boy improving according to my Class Ratings.
Last Two AW ratings were 141,140 and Mia’s Boy jumped to 161 on Saturday.
Good Luck
Monster
Hi Mtoto
They were the Last runs for both horses prior to the Old Newton Cup and the best they had recorded that Season.
The interesting point is that Gorgeous Strike was way out in front on LTO Class & Speed and therefore other considerations had to be the factor that made VDW decide Pipstead was a Certainty. I suspect that Stamina, suitability of Track and weight etc were the ‘Other Considerations’
Good Luck
Monster
