March 4, 2008 at 08:08 #6951
This method has been debated on this website before but for any that have missed it this is what it is all about.
The title is T4C and that stands for Trainers4Courses this was the title of my trainers trend books.
Basically anyone can compile their own list either from Raceform or RSB.
It just takes a lot of time.
I look first of all at what trainers tend to make a level stake profit over a certain number of years at all racecourses. I then look at at the actual results to determine the ages of the winners and what type of race it was.
I then re run those variables through RSB and a look for a certain percentage of winners v number of runners (strike rate). I then look at past results to ensure that the profits have not come from just a few horses as some trainers have done well with just a few horses that have kept winning at a particular track. I am looking for a certain number of different horses based on percentages.
This method in the past has found winners at up to 100/1 on a number of occasions. On the Nat hunt list there was a Gardie Grissell runner at his local Folkestone track that was in a 7 runner race that won @100/1.
Gardie had another winner at Folkestone at the last meeting.
I’m reticent to give away the actual percentages I look for but they are different as I allow newer trainers (with under 6 years experiance) a different figure than those who are well established.
Im not prepared to go into any further details except to state all selections at whatever price are win only.
I do not expect them all to win. Indeed I expect many losers along the way but do fully expect to make a lsp (a level stake profit) at the end of each and every season.
As the flat season starts in March and so far there has been no selections but today there is. I guess this is a good time to kick it off.
P.S. I will record the winners at S.P. and provide a profit/loss account as this is the only clear way to see at a glance how it is going.
Two other members have got this years list so hopefully they may post any selections up when I am on holiday.March 4, 2008 at 08:26 #148292
profit b/f Â£0.00March 4, 2008 at 16:15 #148378davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
That was some drift before the off – was trading around 9.2 – 9.6 on BF all day and then drifts out to a BF SP of 19.5 in about 2 minutes before the off.
Haven’t seen the race so not commenting on anything other than the drift.March 4, 2008 at 17:59 #148393
Imperial Sword 4th @10/1
bank to c/f -Â£100.00March 4, 2008 at 19:03 #148399ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
Best of luck with this, Seagull.
Is there any staking plan?March 5, 2008 at 04:39 #148489
Always been Â£100 win only and calculated at s.p.
Wed 5th March no selections
Thurs 6 March no selections
Fri 7 March no selections
Sat 08 march no selections
p/l -Â£100.00 s/r 0-1 =0%March 11, 2008 at 20:40 #149890
King Of The Moors
s/rate 0-2March 14, 2008 at 06:39 #150756
Thurs March 13th
Sorry not aftertiming as it lost.
However what with Cheltenham taking over yesterday. I forgot to put up the 1 selection for thursday.
That was the Michael Bell runner at Southwell Allied Powers.
this came 3rd @50/1.
(He does well there in non handicaps)
sr 0-3 =0.%
MaslamaMarch 15, 2008 at 06:46 #151399
Sat 15th March
Masalam won @10/11
profit on day +Â£90.90
s/r 1-4 =25.0%
240 ling Tasdeer 2nd
315 Philatest u/p
5-30 Dichoh. 2nd
easy to read that its M. Jarvis at Lingfield but it will narrow other trainers down to specific races.March 17, 2008 at 08:56 #151974
mon 17th March
another second placeMarch 23, 2008 at 09:28 #153370
Sunday 22 March
3-55 Mussel ace of spies
500 Mussel clouis
tourism WON 7/2
Profit on day Â£150.00
Mon 23 Mar
No selectionsMarch 25, 2008 at 21:25 #153768
Monday 24 no selections
Tuesday 25 " "
Wednesday 26 " "March 27, 2008 at 05:47 #153991
thurs 27 march
Grand Strategy 3rd @2/1
bank -Â£559.10March 28, 2008 at 13:26 #154236davidbradyMember
- Total Posts 3901
M Jarvis has a runner at Lingfield today which is a system selection (I think)
16:50 MaadraaMarch 29, 2008 at 08:36 #154422
yes you are correct. I backed it but missed posting on here.
Maadara won 11/4
profit on day Â£275.00
bank now – Â£284.10.
sat 29 march no selections.
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