The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

T4C

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 56 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #6951
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    This method has been debated on this website before but for any that have missed it this is what it is all about.

    The title is T4C and that stands for Trainers4Courses this was the title of my trainers trend books.

    Basically anyone can compile their own list either from Raceform or RSB.
    It just takes a lot of time.

    I look first of all at what trainers tend to make a level stake profit over a certain number of years at all racecourses. I then look at at the actual results to determine the ages of the winners and what type of race it was.

    I then re run those variables through RSB and a look for a certain percentage of winners v number of runners (strike rate). I then look at past results to ensure that the profits have not come from just a few horses as some trainers have done well with just a few horses that have kept winning at a particular track. I am looking for a certain number of different horses based on percentages.

    This method in the past has found winners at up to 100/1 on a number of occasions. On the Nat hunt list there was a Gardie Grissell runner at his local Folkestone track that was in a 7 runner race that won @100/1.
    Gardie had another winner at Folkestone at the last meeting.

    I’m reticent to give away the actual percentages I look for but they are different as I allow newer trainers (with under 6 years experiance) a different figure than those who are well established.

    Im not prepared to go into any further details except to state all selections at whatever price are win only.

    I do not expect them all to win. Indeed I expect many losers along the way but do fully expect to make a lsp (a level stake profit) at the end of each and every season.

    As the flat season starts in March and so far there has been no selections but today there is. I guess this is a good time to kick it off.

    P.S. I will record the winners at S.P. and provide a profit/loss account as this is the only clear way to see at a glance how it is going.
    Two other members have got this years list so hopefully they may post any selections up when I am on holiday.

    #148292
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    04 March
    4-10 Southwell
    Imperial Sword

    Bank £0.00

    profit b/f £0.00

    #148378
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    That was some drift before the off – was trading around 9.2 – 9.6 on BF all day and then drifts out to a BF SP of 19.5 in about 2 minutes before the off.

    Haven’t seen the race so not commenting on anything other than the drift.

    #148393
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Imperial Sword 4th @10/1
    lost £100.00

    bank to c/f -£100.00

    #148399
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Best of luck with this, Seagull.

    Is there any staking plan?

    #148489
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Art
    Always been £100 win only and calculated at s.p.

    Wed 5th March no selections

    Thurs 6 March no selections

    Fri 7 March no selections

    Sat 08 march no selections

    p/l -£100.00 s/r 0-1 =0%

    #149890
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    March 12
    300 southwell
    King Of The Moors

    lost
    bank -£200.00

    s/rate 0-2

    #150756
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Thurs March 13th
    Sorry not aftertiming as it lost.

    However what with Cheltenham taking over yesterday. I forgot to put up the 1 selection for thursday.
    That was the Michael Bell runner at Southwell Allied Powers.
    this came 3rd @50/1.
    (He does well there in non handicaps)

    bank -£300.00

    sr 0-3 =0.%

    Friday
    3-35 Ling
    Maslama

    #151399
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Sat 15th March
    Masalam won @10/11
    profit on day +£90.90

    Bank -£209.10

    s/r 1-4 =25.0%

    Sat selections
    240 ling Tasdeer 2nd

    315 Philatest u/p

    5-30 Dichoh. 2nd

    bank -£509.10

    easy to read that its M. Jarvis at Lingfield but it will narrow other trainers down to specific races.

    #151974
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    mon 17th March

    500 wolv
    brave hawk
    another second place

    #153370
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Sunday 22 March

    3-55 Mussel ace of spies

    500 Mussel clouis
    tourism WON 7/2

    Profit on day £150.00

    bank -£459.10

    Mon 23 Mar
    No selections

    #153768
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    Monday 24 no selections
    Tuesday 25 " "
    Wednesday 26 " "

    #153991
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    thurs 27 march

    8-20 wolv
    Grand Strategy 3rd @2/1

    bank -£559.10

    #154236
    davidbrady
    Member
    • Total Posts 3901

    M Jarvis has a runner at Lingfield today which is a system selection (I think)

    16:50 Maadraa

    #154422
    Seagull
    Member
    • Total Posts 1708

    David
    yes you are correct. I backed it but missed posting on here.
    Maadara won 11/4

    profit on day £275.00

    bank now – £284.10.

    sat 29 march no selections.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 56 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.