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The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

markdbh

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Viewing 13 posts - 1 through 13 (of 13 total)
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  • February 23, 2010 at 17:46 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #278618
    markdbh
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    So after no bets on Monday the week got off to a decent start with 2 losers and 5.1 winner at Southwell.

    Got a 3rd at 16.1 but i don’t do e/w. Perhaps I should?

    Mark

    February 23, 2010 at 17:43 in reply to: Mark’s Method #278615
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    I went for Southwell today.

    4.00 Sam Lord
    4.30 Pension Plan
    5.00 Quousko de L’Isop

    L L 5.1

    not too bad

    Mark

    February 22, 2010 at 08:04 in reply to: Mark’s Method #278371
    markdbh
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    Hmm. I don’t like aw racing in terms of betting. So i have no bets today. Where is the spring? Heard this could be one of the coldest winters ever recorded. Hey Ho.

    Here’s hoping the weather is better for the rest of the week.

    February 22, 2010 at 06:30 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #278370
    markdbh
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    ok I’m back:). Last week saw a loss of ten units – boo

    But the previous week saw a total gain of 34 units.

    So this week will be interesting!
    Good luck everyone.

    February 22, 2010 at 06:29 in reply to: Mark’s Method #278369
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    ok I’m back:). Last week saw a loss of ten units – boo :)

    But the previous week saw a total gain of 34 units.

    So this week will be interesting!
    Good luck everyone.

    February 13, 2010 at 19:36 in reply to: Mark’s Method #276304
    markdbh
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    The one selection came 3rd. But i backed to win :)

    February 13, 2010 at 09:06 in reply to: Mark’s Method #276035
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    Carpincho 4:45 Newbury is my only selection today.
    any thoughts?
    Cheers
    Mark

    February 12, 2010 at 21:37 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #275967
    markdbh
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    Well my method / system has worked well this week. Some longish priced winners. 12.1 24.1 12.1. So I’m happy. No doubt a long losing sequence is in the offing, but overall i believe it is logical and works.
    Mark

    February 12, 2010 at 14:11 in reply to: Mark’s Method #275834
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    wow. It won at 7.1. And i got an early price of 12.1.

    But not showing off. There will be LOTS of losers I am sure.

    February 12, 2010 at 13:00 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #275819
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    Cant help feeling we are arguing at cross purposes here :) All I am really saying is that it is more important to pick horses which have a positive expectation value of return than to pick the most likely winners. We all know that blindly following favourites will lose.

    So my initial question stands I think. Just wanted to get some views. Thanks for all the replys.
    Mark

    February 12, 2010 at 10:33 in reply to: Mark’s Method #275784
    markdbh
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    • Total Posts 15

    Todays one selection is Summery Justice 2.00 Kempton

    February 12, 2010 at 06:57 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #275749
    markdbh
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    If I understand correctly you are saying that a good value horse at 10.1 is still likely to lose. Agreed but over time such horses will give a positive return. It assumes that you can really work out the probabilities of course, which is unlikely. Having said that I an sure it is possible to spot horses that the market has got wrong. This is the opportunity to win.

    i agree that any system that selects horses and then expects you to blindly bet on them is most probably not going to work. I want to use the market to then further select from the system to get good value.
    thanks

    Mark

    February 11, 2010 at 21:46 in reply to: Should systems identify value for money? #275715
    markdbh
    Member
    • Total Posts 15

    Thank you for the replies which are very good. I am a bit pushed for time right now but wanted to at least acknowledge. Let me answer tomorrow please? i hope this can be the start of a valuable debate which is helpful to everyone.
    Cheers
    Mark

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