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Pitty you missed the earlier race thats all I’m saying. Don’t want to be accused of aftertiming.Pittsburgh Phil used to say never let women distract you.
Well done Formath last 4 have won. Remember what VDW said though think hard about the factor of temperrament and refrain from throwing away the advantage so far gained.
I’m still working my way through this race so I’m not sure what I’m going to do yet, but so far KS looks to be out in front class and form wise and conditions should suite. MYDS looks to need a race to be at his best which he will need to be in this race. One doubt I have is KS struggled early in his last race before rallying. VDW said the first doubt should be enough to leave well alone so does that mean no bet. Perhaps LEE, Mtoto, Hensman and those with more experience could tell us.
Finally managed to track down the old form book so I’ve been looking at the Sunset Cristo race.Seems pretty straight foward apart from not ran for 72 days although has performed well after an absence and also carrying 11-7 although not top weight and had won with more before , but not in this class. Is this why VDW said not a cert, but a good bet at the price.Any thoughts on this one?
Seems to have gone abit quiet on here of late.Would any one be interested in discussing the Hennesy abit later in the week. This is the race that Pegwell Bay was a winner in race and there could be another winner in the race on Saturday.This could be a good race to discuss because its the first big race of the season.Any thoughts?
Hensman I hav’nt looked at the Prominent King race in detail, but could one of the methods he talks about be class of horse they ran against , not class of race.
Racing Post Ratings do seem to have had a worse than normal season on the flat.They do better over the jumps though. Topspeed does perform badly and there must be something wrong with their standard times.Other speed ratings do better like Mark Nelson from Racing and Football Outlook who uses Ken Husseys old system.
Interesting race, but I wont be getting involved.
15/8 Galactic Star
3.8/1 Red Gala
6/1 Regime
10/1 Lines Selection
Galactic Star seems to have alot going for it, but won last race by only hd and ridden out and now being asked to go up in class. Has been aimed at the race though.
Red Gala raised in class, weight and distance lto now being dropped to collect possibly. Although Ryan is riding Galactic Star this time.
Regime. I have to agree with Mttoto that regime has some positives and and also being dropped in class.
To much conflict and doubt for me , but will be interesting to watch.
Nobody is forcing us to bet only ourselves.Possibly the biggest advantage we have is being selective.
I think you have to be careful taking SF to litrally because pace is a big factor even in large fields there can still be a slow pace if there are no front runners in the field. VDW taled about pace and going when studying form. Pace has’nt been mentioned much yet in this thread , but it can be the decisive factor in some races.A question. Do you think pace is linked with the going because VDW said take note of pace and going. Which to me implys that he is linking those to factors together.
If BL was out of form because of a slow SF then WL must also be out of form because he did’nt record any SF in his last race. I think theres more to it than speed figures. I can see why WL was a form horse and I can’t believe they let him go of at 12/1 in 5 horse field
BL was carrying 12-7 in his last race, but even so he should have finished closer.Pipedreamer this has never bothered me not having a bet.I don’t like losing money . I find it depressing. Never understood why people chase and why they keep betting when they are long term losers. I’ve never understood whats exciting about losing and why many feel they have to have a bet to take an interest in a race.I guess I’m the odd man out.If I thought I could’nt win at this game I would never bet again . I think it comes down to personality , but some do learn to be disciplined ansd with out that nobody can win.
Mtoto to be fair VDW never said BL was out of form, but he did say he had a hard race.Last two furlongs comments read Hard Ridden. This was only 10 days before the Champion Hurdle. You have to ask yourself at this class level is 10 days long enough to recover from a hard race. Could BL be expected to be at his best after only 10 days to win the Champion Hurdle and I think he would need to be. Note also this his 6th race in 4 months which is alot for this class level.Happened this year with Honolulu fav for the St Leger did’nt perform and then came out to soon after a hard race. Lower class probably woud’nt be a problem.VDW says both methods show BL well out of it and if you look at his speed figures relative to class it shows a down turn in form . BL was not improving infact quite the opposite.I agree that he could perhaps be excused his last race based on going and course considerations, but the fact still remains BL had some hard races and the last one 10 days ago hard ridden on heavy going which must have taken alot out of him.
Any one know what the last 2 furlong comments are for PK because they are not in my form book?
L33 if you can achieve 80%+ strike rate why would they have to be 6/4 or better. You could back them at 1/3 on or better at that strike rate.
Cormack alot more to it than just compile a couple of ratings. Tony peach thought capability was about an individuals capability to operate the method , but VDW corrected him and said it was the horse being capable of performing under the conditions for example going, distance, weight,draw,course.
The probabilty part is the hardest to understand imo.I think it covers everything not in the first 3 parts.Partly to do with not going against the odds.VDW talks about the 3 probables and he did a great deal of research that went into each part of the method.Probabilty also includes luck. Thats why theres no such thing as a cert in racing . As Mtoto said you still need look in running to get a winner even when everything else looks right.
BL was carrying 12-7 in his last race, but even so he should have finished closer.