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Here are the ratings for the 4.20 Folkestone:
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Saint Godegrand 52 52
Allez Frank 61 48
Supreme Copper 60 57
Osako D´Airy 58 51
Onefourfun 68 74
Coppermalt 54 54
Seven Sky 60 61
Better Moment 56 53
Needle Prick 67 74
Black Cloud 52 52
Tempsford 72 87
Tabaran 56 45
Leadaway 55 50
Schemer Fagan 55 48
Tayman 57 54
Lady Roisin 54 54
[/code:1hpzpbua]GL
Having been spoon-feed the basics I thought I’d give this VDW system a try today in the 4.20 at Folkestone.
I have narrowed the field down to:
Oneforfun
Seven SkyBut although not in the first six in the betting forecast preferences is for:
Tayman
Good luck All
Good call, Pompete.
Well done Pete .. I get the feeling you knew that was going to win, even though it wasn’t in the first six in the forecast ..
Arkle
When I was first composing that post I had some amusing quips in the second and third paragraphs to indicate how things steadily got more difficult. So the words quite simple don’t really have the same meaning as first intended. The words quite straightforward would be more appropriate. But that is just to describe the method as stated in the first paragraph only.
Regarding Celtic Pleasure the class sequence of races run, that you have shown, is correct. His wins were, most recent first, class 68, 53 & 5. His ability rating was 42 as shown on page 6 of this thread and I have him with the second highest ability rating in the field.Hensman
This is my interpretation of why VDW said Burrough Hill Lad was not a form horse. Basically, it is because his last time out race produced the lowest speed figure by far of all the chases at that meeting. So to use VDW’s words “the race was slow and the horse did nothing from the distanceâ€
If BL was out of form because of a slow SF then WL must also be out of form because he did’nt record any SF in his last race. I think theres more to it than speed figures. I can see why WL was a form horse and I can’t believe they let him go of at 12/1 in 5 horse field
BL was carrying 12-7 in his last race, but even so he should have finished closer.Garston
That is a plausible answer, but in my view probably not VDW’s – given his comments about sfs in his letter of 10/10/81 and the point Maggsy has made (and that would not be limited to Wayward Lad in relation to the KG but would also apply to many of the runners in other VDW example races).
Maggsy/Hensman
You have answered exactly as I hoped you would. You are correct there is more to it than just speed figures but it IS the basics behind the answer. I will give you my full explanation later (hopefully tonight). Incidentally, Wayward Lad DID produce a speed figure last time out, it’s just that it was less than zero.
Maggsy/Hensman
Everything must be related to class.
Look at the Ascot meeting on Sat, Dec 14, 1985. Consider the chases only.
12.15 Class 56 Nov Ch won by Desert Orchid, speed figure 85, slower than standard time 4.2, 6 ran.
1.55 Class 125 Hcap Ch won by Door Latch, speed figure 24, slower than standard time 8.6, 8 ran. (BURROUGH HILL LAD third btn 11 lengths sf 35)
2.30 Class 65 Hcap Ch won by Admiral’s Cup, speed figure 80, slower than standard time 0.9, 6 ran.
As you know speed figures are calculated from the faster/slower than standard time figure and are adjusted by weight carried and the going allowance. When speed figures are available these should be used to compare, when they are not we must compare the faster/slower than standard time figure.
The 1.55 is the highest class race above and it SHOULD HAVE produced the highest speed figure. If it had been a 3 or 4 runner affair then that could have been used as an excuse.
It was the combination of the significant reduction in speed figure, from 78 first time out to 35 last time out and the proof of a slow run race as shown above together with the horse doing nothing from the last 2 fences that showed VDW that Burrough Hill Lad was out of form.Look at the Haydock meeting on Wed, Dec 11, 1985. Consider the chases only.
1.30 Class 24 Nov Ch won by Repington, speed figure -, slower than standard time 33.5, 4 ran.
2.00 Class 59 Ch won by EARLS BRIG, speed figure -, slower than standard time 27.8, 4 ran. (WAYWARD LAD second btn half a length sf -)
3.00 Class 31 Hcap Ch won by Gemelek, speed figure -, slower than standard time 28.6, 3 ran.
Next day same going (soft)
1.30 Class 22 Nov Ch won by Strands of Gold, speed figure -, slower than standard time 59.4, 5 ran.
2.30 Class 29 Hcap Ch won by Hardy Lad, speed figure -, slower than standard time 40.4, 10 ran.
The 2.00 is the highest class race above and it produced the FASTEST slower than standard time figure as it should have. So there is nothing to suggest both Earls Brig and Wayward Lad are out of form.Look at the Cheltenham meeting on Sat, Dec 7, 1985. Consider the chases only.
1.40 Class 122 Hcap Ch won by COMBS DITCH, speed figure 100, slower than standard time 22.5, 7 ran. (HALF FREE fourth btn twelve and a half lengths sf 78)
2.15 Class 46 Nov Ch won by Arctic Stream, speed figure 37, slower than standard time 34.6, 8 ran.
2.50 Class 43 Hcap Ch won by Jo Colombo, speed figure 82, slower than standard time 18.6, 3 ran.
Previous day same going (soft)
1.05 Class 31 Hcap Ch won by Troilena, speed figure -, slower than standard time 20.4, 5 ran.
2.15 Class 60 Hcap Ch won by Run and Skip, speed figure 76, slower than standard time 15.2, 6 ran.
2.50 Class 28 Ch won by Von Trappe, speed figure -, slower than standard time 31.8, 7 ran.
The 1.40 is the highest class race above and it produced the highest speed figure as it should have. Note that it was not the fastest slower than standard time figure. So there is nothing to suggest Combs Ditch is out of form. But what about Half Free?
VDW does not have him as a form horse and there was no significant reduction in speed figure, 79 first time out to 78 last time out. So at the moment I am settling for the distance beaten combined with the fact that Half Free lost his place 3 out and passed two weakening horses from the last 2 fences to finish fourth.Finally and this may seem obvious, a horse that has won last time out MUST be considered in form, provided that win was in the current season or within a certain time limit. The reason I say this is because of Beau Ranger, VDW’s cat and everything I have portrayed above. Another one to note above is Von Trappe, winning the lowest class above, therefore not expected to produce the highest speed figure. Having said all that then, only a beaten horse last time out can be considered to be in or out of form.
Garston
"It was the combination of the significant reduction in speed figure, from 78 first time out to 35 last time out and the proof of a slow run race as shown above together with the horse doing nothing from the last 2 fences that showed VDW that Burrough Hill Lad was out of form."
Undeniably plausible, and a better explanation than others I’ve seen on other forums over the years. But although we’ll never know for sure, I think it is well wide of the mark. I suggest that VDW gave us a clue with his comment in brackets: "… I am aware that some large wagers were made (some by associates who ought to have known better) on Burrough Hill Lad". Maybe I am reading too much into that, but I suspect he was referring to associates who knew how he worked but failed to look closely enough at the detail with this one. When one does …
HI GARSTONF
The post you are putting on this thread are very good indeed and are worth reading more than once .In your last post you say look at the cheltenham meeting sat december 7 1985 . The 1.40 is the highest class above and it produced the highest speed figure as it should have . NOTE THAT IT WAS NOT THE FASTEST SLOWER THAN STANDARD TIME FIGURE. May i ask in your opinion if the race in question had record the fastest slower than standard time along with the best speed figure, would the horse taken from that race be out of form .
Thank you
ArkleIf there is no sgnificant draw advantage in the 325Donc then I have Tombi ans Jimmy Styles as being the best class horses placed to win.
I think you have to be careful taking SF to litrally because pace is a big factor even in large fields there can still be a slow pace if there are no front runners in the field. VDW taled about pace and going when studying form. Pace has’nt been mentioned much yet in this thread , but it can be the decisive factor in some races.A question. Do you think pace is linked with the going because VDW said take note of pace and going. Which to me implys that he is linking those to factors together.
Hensman
In the results section of the Sporting Life it records any large wagers struck. In the case of Burrough Hill Lad it would have something like, bets of £5,000 – £4,000, £10,000 – £8,000 etc. These are not exact figures but you know what I mean. The meeting was one of the most important in the N.H. calendar. Burrough Hill Lad was an odds on favourite so obviously large bets would have been struck by both high rollers and professionals. How do you know VDW was not referring to the un-named people who struck the bets above?
How do you know that he wasn’t referring to a business associate who regards a £1,000 bet the same way an ordinary punter regards a £10 bet?
If you were VDW’s associate and knew his methods would you not compare notes with him before placing a bet to make sure you had got it right?
As you said, we will never know for sure.Arkle
If the race in question HAD recorded the fastest slower than standard time then the speed figure would have been even higher.
Garston
I believe that VDW had a very particular notion in mind when referring to form. IF I am correct (and although I try to keep an open mind I find it difficult to work on the assumption that I’m not), then the phrase in brackets quoted in my last post has particular meaning – indeed I would say it was a clue to those who think they have worked out what VDW meant by form but find this one example elusive.
If I am wrong about VDW’s notion of form, as obviously I may well be, then of course the construction I place on the phrase falls and any of the possibilities you raise could be true.
But running with my view for a moment (which includes the assumption that sfs play little part in NH races and certainly not the central one you suggest), anyone following the "VDW approach" could be forgiven for selecting Burrough Hill Lad. Like Little Owl, he was a consistent horse and had the highest ability rating in the field by a reasonable margin. He had excellent ratings support from the two sets most commonly available, and given the way one at least of VDW’s seems to build on the Mail’s it is not unreasonable to think he probably showed up well in VDW’s ratings, too. The horse had won the race the year before, beating two of his four rivals in the 1985 race, which could reasonably be viewed as a target for the year (being arguably the second most important longer chase in the season). His failure to win lto under 12.07 could be viewed as an example of a horse being run under a heavy weight to set him up for his next challenge rather than to win that lto race. I can imagine plenty of "VDWers" thinking him "a good thing" and viewing backing him around evens as an easy way of paying for Christmas.
BL was carrying 12-7 in his last race, but even so he should have finished closer.
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