The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

maggsy

Forum Replies Created

Viewing 3 posts - 69 through 71 (of 71 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • in reply to: VDW #117400
    maggsy
    Member
    • Total Posts 71

    I’ve just run this through RSB again and although I can’t use class ratings I have used :lol: other ratings and this does show a profit when conbined with consistancy even though outside the first 6 in the betting. As you say Hensman it does not happen often so the sample is small, but it does seem to show that VDW was right again and remember this was before we had computers do to the research. :)

    in reply to: VDW #117378
    maggsy
    Member
    • Total Posts 71

    If you look at horses not in the first 6 in the betting and consistant ie with a rating of 6 or less you get 64 wins from 1490 4.3% 38%loss according to RSB. I realise there is more to consistancy than just adding form figures together , but these results are not very encouraging for those wanting to bet outside the top 6 in the betting which in my experience is going against the odds.Candidato Roy had a form figure rating of 10 which is even worse than the figures I ran through RSB. As I understand the 3 probables have to be in the top 3 rated on consistancy. I don’t know if that would include Candidto Roy because I did not look at the race in any detail because I tend to keep away from large fields.
    His class figure comes from winning in Nad El Sheba so I would downgrade that anyway because foreign form tends not to be as good unless it comes from Ireland or France and certain other races. Since then his form has not been as good and was going from class 50 to 930 which was a big jump up after being dropped to class 50 and not being able to win. I realise that the class of horse in a race is not the same as the class of the race , but even so its hard to see how any one could say that VDW would have picked Candidato Roy.

    in reply to: VDW #117316
    maggsy
    Member
    • Total Posts 71

    The problem I have with Candidto Roy being a VDW selection is that it was not in the first six in the betting. On my understanding it has to be in the first six in the betting .

Viewing 3 posts - 69 through 71 (of 71 total)