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We need to be looking for good consistant form not just consistant form.Its more than just adding up the form figures and concluding its a consistant horse. Take Geordieland for instance adding up his form figures would be 9, but that would’nt mean he has good consistant form.. We are looking for winners so look for consistant winners. Geordieland is a horse that does’nt like to get his head in front. No matter what the ratings say a horse like Geordieland would’nt carry my money. We need to be looking for horses that have the ability to get there heads in front when it counts.
Why did VDW fall out with Tony Peach? Do you think VDW clicked on to Tony Peach just using him to make money from the books?
Talking about tipsters has any body got any thoughts on Jock Bingham?I read on the internet from some one who subscribed to his tipping service that it was rubbish. Do you think Jock Bingham was for real or was it just Tony Peach trying to make money? Do you think this is what caused to fall out between Peach and VDW because something upset VDW for him to say he did’nt know Tony Peach and for him to change his phone number?Has any one checked out Bingham selections in his books? Were they VDW selections?
Garstonf from your own figures first five in the betting win 55 from 66 83% in 1978 and 51 from 66 2007 77% which allowing for a small sample as Hensmen says this stat does’nt prove anything. Again the consistancy stats you use the samples sizes are to low to prove any thing. From my own records this year the 3 probables have won 74 from 107 69%. This is with out taking any other factors in to account apart from consistant form figures which is’nt the same as consistant form.
One of are aeroplanes is missing.
Its just like old times having the group back together. I remember some old names, but where is Guest is he on here posting under another name?
Lee I agree with you that weight is a factor, but Mtoto makes some good points which I don’t think anyo ne has answered yet. They can’t just be ignored. Mtoto you mention an example of a 7Ib turn around. what example do you mean?As for why does’nt VDW mention weight when talking about how to assess form you could also ask why does’ny he mention distance ,but he says to lokk at the going. I know that distance is taken into account in the second numerical picture, but may be weight is more to do with capability than form like distance is.
Looking at the Roushayd example why was is a bet when Roushyd was set to carry 9-10 when Roushayd had never won with that kind of weight, but had performed well when carrying weight. As we keep saying this is a method not a set of rules so inteligent judgement has to be shown and each race is different.Canny Danny was running over 3miles 5 furlongs and my research suggests that weight becomes more important the longer the race, so may be this is why in some examples VDW uses weight as a factor and other times seems to ignore it.
I think it was Mtoto who said that weight was’nt a factor. I personally believe that weight can be decisive in certain situations like on soft or heavy ground. As VDW said every horse has its breaking limit and is’nt capable of carrying more than a certain weight and this has to be checked like many other factors.Even the great Arkle could’nt always give lumps of weight away although he almost did it.
Looks like its been abridged in the new book and Tony Peach has left it out.How many more has he left out of the reprints?
I think it throws up fewer bets over Jumps because of the weather affecting the races during the winter and meetings being cancelled.More racing during the summer when the Flat is in full swing.
Hensmen did VDW put foward 100+ selections? I though it was only about 50 and where does he talk about Abathatc? Am I missing something?
Formath i think the 3.15 was a better race to look at because it’s a better class race.
Hensman how often do find a vdw bet on average per week and what kind of strike rate do you achieve?
Hensman I agree no rating system is foolproof which is why ratings can only be used as a guide, but some ratings are better than others and VDW did say to use ratings divised alog different lines like Speed figures and Collateral form to bring balance to the evaluation.
Pengamon
I think thats the difference if its held in California or new York because of the climate. Have you compared results from east and west.I don’t think Authorised looked happy in the race right from the start. The comentator said he was cruising on the outside at one point, but I never saw it. Best keeping the volume on mute.
I agree Mtoto and Hensman that the class of horse in a race can be different from the class of race. I think VDW did use ability ratings , but I think he also used cross checks to bring balance to the evaluation. Mtoto uses OR I think I don’t. The problem I have with the OR is that the ahndicapper is sometimes behind and the horse is improving quicker than he can keep up espiecally 2 and 3 year olds. Also sometimes the OR does’nt come down quick enough when a horse has’nt won for along time and it is doubful whether the horse is as good as it once was. i realise that Trainers play tricks to try and bring a horses handicap mark down and I’m sure the handicapper knowws that Trainers do this as well.
As some one has said recently each has his own way after the 2nd numerical picture.VDW said there was many different routes to arrive at the same conclusion as long as you proceed in a logical manner.
