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Beard, well in practice you would be watching the market on Betfair at the time and lay the favourite just before the off, thus you are more likely to be able to see the actual favourite.. as in your example with Capriccio there. ÂÂÂ
If it is a close betting heat and you cannot tell if one is going to be favourite on the off then just leave it alone, it really won’t affect the statistics of it in the long run. If there have been times during the running of the system that you may not have been able to lay the horse in question then I apaologise, however if you do follow this system you will still make your profit over time.
The other consideration is that occasionally you may have to offer up slightly better value than just one odds increment higher than SP.  Although on other occasions you could get the actual SP or even something shorter. This would even out over the long run too.  In practice I would not play on a horse if I was having to offer up value that is more than 0.15 above the actual odds because this will significantly shorten the profit margin…. Again, in the long run missing out some of them because of this will even out and you will still show the profit because of the built in over-round of the bookies, ie the value is almost* always on the side of the bookies.  These are minor things though ;)  The advent of the betdaq exchange opening will also avail better value to the layer (as well as the punter!).
The figures I have quoted in the system so far are acheivable I feel. Like I say, some cases as a layer you would have gotten poorer value, some you could have layed at a shorter price, but at some point in 95% of these betting heats, the prices I have quoted would have been matched. It is the idea that counts, if you miss one or two then it won’t make a big difference to the profit you have made in say 6 months time… and the ones you do miss are just as likely/unlikely to win as the the ones you do play.
Hope I’m making sense!… probably not! :biggrin: Its more of an eye opening system than a hard fast — DO THIS AND MAKE MONEY type thing. :)
(Edited by larry layer at 6:14 pm on Mar. 5, 2002)
Leicester 4.40 Red Rebel LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1325
Exeter 4.50 Capriccio LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1345
Sedgefield 5.00 MR Woodentop LAY £20 @ 1/3 LOST :o <br>BANK = £1365
26 plays, BANK UP £365. 23 Wins, 3 Losses.
<br>Thanks Matron and Slippy :biggrin: I would settle for a nice apartment just off Regents Park personally! Long way to go before then though! hehe
Wolverhampton 5.00 Flambe LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1315
Market Rsn 5.10 Cowboyboots LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1335
Fontwell 5.20 Dragon Hunter LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £1305
23 Plays, BANK UP £305. 20 Wins, 3 Losses.
Im predicting a higher percentage of these to start winning soon, it’s doing much better than expected!
Huntingdon 5.05 Game On LAY £20 @ 8/13 LOST <br>BANK = £1235
Doncaster 5.15 Kymani Prince LAY £20 @ EVENS LOST<br>BANK = £1255
Lingfield 5.20 Three Clouds LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1275
Newbury 5.35 The Penny’s Dropped LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1295
20 Plays, BANK UP £295 (14.75 Points if £20 = 1 Point). 18 Wins, 2 Losses
:biggrin: :cool: :biggrin:
Hi Daylight,
would you like me to put in a points figure as well as a bank figure to make it easier ?
Doncaster 5.15 Flossy Tops LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £1195
Newbury 5.30 Tom De Savoie LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK – £1215
16 Plays, BANK UP £215. 14 Wins, 2 Losses
Thanks, I will try to keep it going Paul ! Results are encouraging at the moment. Its quite eye opening isn’t it. I’m using the statistic that the last favourite of the day wins a lower percentage of races, which hopefully should mean you still have a big enough margin to lay them all on betfair and make a profit. I’m expecting lots of them to win soon as a 12 – 2 start is a bit too good. :biggrin:
Ludlow 5.00 Scottish Dance LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1135
Taunton 5.10 St. Helensfield LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1155
Southwell 5.20 Green Green Grass LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £1175
14 Plays, BANK UP £175. 12 Wins, 2 Losses.<br>
Lingfield 5.15 Open Arms LAY £20 @ 13/8 WON<br>BANK = £1115
11 Plays, BANK UP £115. 9 Wins, 2 Losses
Lingfield 4.40  Mr Lear  LAY £20 @ 5/6  LOST<br>BANK = £1147.50
10 plays, BANK UP £147.50. 9 Wins, 1 Loss
(Edited by larry layer at 4:47 pm on Feb. 26, 2002)
Wolverhampton 4.45 Joint Favs = NO BET
Plumpton 4.55 Brooksie LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £1127.50
9 Plays, BANK UP £127.50. 8 Wins, 1 Loss.
I dont think punters point was that he bet the horse thus it must be bent. His point was that the betting seemed strange to him and the horse didn’t appear to be pushed as hard as it could have. Simply put, that is all he said. In fact, did he not half his bet because he felt it was strange… Whether or not he is right to think that it was bent will never be proven. I wouldn’t call him a sore loser at all…. he simply pointed out what he felt was unusual for all of us to digest and make of it what we will. It appears the majority think his hypothesis makes him a sore loser…
good point pixo. This is exactly the point i felt was note worthy and also the point that punter has been trying to make all along. Spot the irregular or unusual betting patterns and lets see what happens. Examining the betting patterns exhibited on Betfair is a worthy source of information which needs further investigation… all the facts need to be looked at.
For what it’s worth, I go along with punter. 20k matched the night before at price well above that which it’ll be at nearer the race is a little off. Then again, coincidences do happen and betfair will match a vast majority of money on one horse if the odds are short enough. I still believe it’s worth looking at closer. Next time someone sees something they deem strange post it up and we can all see what happens. :cool:
I was never under any other impression Slippy :) I went into horses thinking that that must go on, and more evidence continues to turn up that it does. Thats one reason I gave up backing horses, I think the form is good to a point, but in the end, the bookie wins or the dodgy owner/trainer etc, unless you are one of the 0.?% of punters that can beat them. IMO anyway, I’m sure many members here make good profits backing horses and for that I really admire you guys because it is very tough! No only are you battling the other animals but that over round too (which I personally feel is more than half the battle) !! Im fairly new in horse racing anyway, so I really don’t feel that confident in my inexperinced views!
