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i feel the need for some clarification of my posting following john’s comments :)
i don’t consider myself a pro punter – trader would be closer to the mark. essentially i trade fixed odds contracts on exchanges.. and i never do the horses. so i couldnt post selections etc.. but i do enjoy this site and the punters that are on it and respect them greatly, i do believe there are people here that do well punting.
as for my profitability, i still have a job that i dont intend (for now) to give up..so im not a "pro". i am currently making approximately 7 times more online though, so it is tempting…my life is changing slowly due to the extra money – so maybe you can say im "making a living" for myself.. i never count my chickens though and see it more as a hobby. i also think that with the advent of betting exchanges there will be increasing numbers of people out there who make a living from them.
4p in the meter now :biggrin:
Great advice from everyone so far.. see if i can add my couple of pennies ;)
Find your own method of doing things.  Although I have never tried it myself, i do have doubts about following other peoples tips in order to make a profit.  It just doesn’t sit well with me, i wouldn’t feel comfortable putting my money on something that someone else thinks has a chance.  What happens if they have a long losing streak and you give up on them, only to find that the tip you gave up before comes in and pushes the bank into profit ?! Or you are unable for some reason to get that tip where the big winner comes in…
Finding your own method that works is a time consuming process, but when you find it it will not only pay you in £££, but its very satisfying.  Also, you have a lower risk of other people affecting your price or using the same method.
Have an open mind.  There are more instruments and ways of investing/betting than ever before nowadays… it makes sense to look at them all and assess them to see if they suit your needs.  I would advise you to look at the exchanges and all of the things that go on there.  There are a lot more ways to make money in this game than simply playing a straight bet.  Read up on trading – financially, this will make you think.  Make sure your knowledge of probability is up to scratch as well..
Be Disciplined.  Stick to your method.. you might want to paper trade it to ensure itis profitable..  don’t experiment and never chase loses – this is the quickest route to the poorhouse.  Learn from your mistakes, always ask why you lost, and always ask whats the worst that could happen and were you just lucky to get away with the bet…take this into account.
good luck !  we’re all here to help you anyway.. if you wanna bounce any ideas off me or anyone just post up a message or PM ;)
(Edited by larry layer at 3:11 pm on Sep. 12, 2002)
May 6th
Towcester 4.50 Lets Go Dutch LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2154.70
Fontwell 4.55 Keltic Heritage LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2174.70
Kempton 5.25 Bustan LAY £20 @ 4/5 WON<br>BANK = £2158.50
Newcastle 5.35 Geri Roulette LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2178.50
Doncaster 5.45 Manorbier LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £2198.50
Ludlow 5.50 Turaath LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2218.50
Warwick 6.00 Lakota Brave LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £2238.50
May 7th
Chester 4.25 Pepperoni LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2258.50
Bath 4.40 Guilsborough LAY £20 @ 10/3 LOST<br>BANK = £2278.50
May 8th
Chester 4.25 Fortune Bay LAY £20 @ 21/10 WON<br>BANK = £2236.50
Kelso 4.45 Teelin Bay LAY £20 @ 1/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2256.50
Chepstow 5.05 Mounsey Castle LAY £20 @ 10/3 WON<br>BANK = £2189.83
203 Plays, BANK UP £1189.83. 154 Wins, 49 Losses.
May 1st
Exeter 4.50 Carnoustie LAY £20 @ 3/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1992.70
Ascot 5.15 Kew Green LAY £20 @ 6/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2012.70
Pontefract 6.05 Kylkenny LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2032.70
May 2nd
Redcar 4.50 Dispol Rock LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2052.70
Southwell 5.10 Silent Memory LAY £20 @ 16/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2072.70
Brighton 5.30 Joint Favs No Bet. (Neither Won)
May 3rd
Newmarket 5.10 Wild Fling LAY £20 @ 4/5 WON<br>BANK = £2056.70
Folkstone 5.20 Bay Legend LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2076.70
Musselburgh 5.55 Kangarilla Road LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2096.70
May 4th
Haydock 4.25 Indian Country LAY £20 @ 6/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2116.70
Hexham 5.05 Primitive Satin LAY £20 @ 7/4 LOST<br>BANK = £2136.70
Uttoxeter 5.10 Shampooed LAY £20 @ 2/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2156.70
Thirsk 5.15 Joint Favs No Bet. (Neither Won)
Hereford 5.20 Ozzie Jones LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2176.70
Newmarket 5.35 Desert Deer LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £2146.70
May 5th
Newmarket 5.20 On Edge LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2166.70
Hamilton 5.30 Wise Tale LAY £20 @ 15/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2186.70
Salisbury 5.40 Conquistadora LAY £20 @ 13/5 WON<br>BANK = £2134.70
191 Plays, BANK UP £1134.70. 145 Wins, 46 Losses.
<br>Hope you guys were following the system during that great run! Back on track again!
April 29th
Wolverhampton 4.50 Pup’s Pride LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2012.70
Towcestor 5.00 Burdens Girl LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2032.70
Plumpton 5.10 By N By LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2052.70
April 30th
Hexham 4.50 Queen of Araghty LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2072.70
Bath 5.00 Whizz Kid LAy £20 @ 6/1 WON<br>BANK = £1952.70
Nottingham 5.10 In Xanadu LAY £20 @ 2/1 LOST<br>BANK = £1972.70
175 Plays, BANK UP £972.70. 132 Wins, 43 Losses.
April 27th
Sedgefield 4.50 Business Class LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1947.25
Sandown 5.15 Island Light LAY £20 @ 21/10 LOST<br>BANK = £1967.25
Market Rasen 5.25 Tallison LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £1987.25
Leicester 5.30 Muwassi LAY £20 @ 8/13 LOST<br>BANK = £2007.25
Ripon 5.35 Cozy Maria LAY £20 @ 8/11 WON<br>BANK = £1992.70
169 Plays, BANK UP £992.70. 127 Wins, 42 Losses.
April 25th
Beverly 4.40 Polish Corridor LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2140.75
Perth 4.50 Cambrian Dawn LAY £20 @ 16/5 WON<br>BANK = £2076.75
Fontwell 5.00 Desmond Tutu LAY £20 @ 15/8 WON<br>BANK = £2039.25
April 26th
Sandown 5.10 Golden Bounty LAY £20 @ 4/1 WON<br>BANK = £1959.25
Wolverhampton 5.15 Ashton Vale LAY £20 @ 9/2 LOST<br>BANK = £1979.25
Perth 5.25 Mister Wellard LAY £20 @ 13/5 WON<br>BANK = £1927.25
164 Plays, BANK UP £927.35. 123 Wins, 41 Losses.
Bit of a bad two days there, those averages have to correct themselves every now and then. RP site hasn’t updated the results from Saturday’s last races yet, will update when they have.
Thats the key, if you can’t get on at a short enough price, sit it out.. profit will come in time.
tooting, Matron is right… even if you actually miss the favourite, but you get the shortest odds you can – you will still win in the end, stick with it. Remember the probability is on your side ;) As for switching between windows.. I do this constantly when I’m betting on sports events in running, usually with 3/4 bookies open at the same time. You’ll get quicker with practice! Another thing to consider is opening a window and resizing / repositioning it so that it is displayed at the side of the betfair screen, to refresh just right mouse click then click refresh. ;) This is what I do with ftse / dow jones betting – u can constantly keep an eye on it. You also have sites like smartbet which automatically update and show you the odds shortening/lengthing in different colours. Very helpful.
April 24th
Epsom 4.50 Tribal Prince LAY £20 @ 5/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2080.75
Catterick 5.30 Pinchbeck LAY £20 @ 13/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2100.75
Perth 5.40 Long Walk LAY £20 @ 11/10 LOST<br>BANK = £2120.75
158 Plays, BANK UP £1120.75. 121 Wins, 37 Losses.
April 23rd
Exeter 4.50 Hard To Know LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2116.75
Folkstone 5.00 Sienna Star LAY £20 @ 6/4 LOST<br>BANK = £2136.75
Wetherby 5.10 Bold Bishop LAY £20 @ 19/5 WON<br>BANK = £2060.75
155 Plays, BANK UP £1060.75. 118 Wins, 37 Losses.
robgomm, I have asked myself this same question! I can’t come up with a concrete answer.. In reality there isn’t a huge gap statistically between the last favourite and the others – just a small one, but its big enough for us to exploit ! ;) anyone got any ideas ?
On some occaisions I think it could be down to punters looking to back value in the last race in order to make back loses – this could produce a favourite which might not be the best horse in the race.
The obvious answer is that conditions in the last race level the playing ground in some way – this is essential what is happening. – but how ? I’m not a racing expert, but could the use of the ground by the previous horses possibly level the abilities slightly of horses in later races ?
Do the horses just not like racing later in the day ? I’m sure someone can throw up some ideas.
Ihaventalight – I know just how you feel at the moment! Busy season for me ;)
April 22nd
Hexham 4.40 Perouse LAY £20 @ 11/10 WON<br>BANK = £2056.75
Pontefract 4.50 Kylkenny LAY £20 @ 4/1 LOST<br>BANK = £2076.75
Windsor 5.00 Slupia LAY £20 @ 11/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2096.75
152 Plays, BANK UP £1096.75. 116 Wins, 36 Losses.
A nice start for you ihaventalight if you were doing it with the real money today!
April 20th
Bangor 4.50 Felix Randall LAY £20 @ 13/8 LOST<br>BANK = £2048.75
Ayr 5.10 Tollbrae LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75
Stratford 5.45 Druid’s Glen LAY £20 @ 6/4 WON<br>BANK = £2038.75
Newbury 5.50 Welsh Diva LAY £20 @ 12/5 LOST<br>BANK = £2058.75
Thirsk 5.55 Sabreeze LAY £20 @ 7/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2078.75
149 Plays, BANK UP £1078.75. 114 Wins, 35 Losses.
April 19th
Thirsk 5.00 Sunley Scent LAY £20 @ 11/2 LOST<br>BANK = £2068.75
Newbury 5.10 Gamut LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2048.75
Ayr 5.20 Ravenswood LAY £20 @ Evens WON<br>BANK = £2028.75
144 Plays, BANK UP £1028.75. 110 Wins, 34 Losses.
Hi guys,
Good to have you along RichK and Ihaventalight.  Sadly I haven’t been doing this with real money, I wanted to test it on paper for a while first, I had a couple of reservations about it’s feasability before I started.  I knew the favourites in the last race of the day won less than all the others, and I know that if you were to back all of the last favourties to win you would only return approx 89% on your stakes over time, leaving an 11% margin… Think of it like this, the odds on the horse are usually (unless its a "good thing"!:biggrin: ) just below the actual probability of the horse winning – a profit margin is built in!….problem was, would offering above the odds prices (as you usually have to do) on the exchanges wipe out the margin?  I think we can say at the moment – no!  I do think that you will have periods of time where you won’t be making money on this but staying level, I think the system has had a good run since I began.
To answer some of the questions myself…(I agree with RichK for the most part – thanks Rich!)
a) a bank for £50 lay per race… I would advise at least £1,000.  I always like to play it safe when talking about bank sizes.  The bigger the better.  But consider that if you have a favourite that goes off at 11/2 and wins, thats £275 down straight away.  Its not beyond the realms of possibility that several could go in, in a row – they are favourites after all.
b) As close to the off as you can.  Although I advise you spend a lot of time watching the character of the markets on Betfair and try to judge when the price will be at its lowest.  Load up some bookies prices in different windows, or smartbet.co.uk to keep a track of the prices.  It’s crucial you get the shortest price you possibly can.  If a price shortens, very often people will actually take an artificially short price as they get nervous about it shortening quickly.  And be QUICK with altering the price of your lays, there are traders on there that prey on your price being left on the screen for a split second too long… I know, because I’m one of them! :biggrin: Not usually on racing though.
c)  As Rich says, you can constantly amend the price of your offer.  If a price is drifting and you know it, that is when you can make the best play – by offering your odds at the forefront of the betting…  (its all about getting your price to match the SP as closely as possible to keep the profit margin in tact, if you can consistently read the market you will make more money in the long run because your margin will be bigger.  This is the key to making the system as profitable as possible.)
d)  A minimum bank on Betfair is £25.  You need ot have sufficient in your bank to cover your "exposure" – the amount you stand to lose if the horse wins.
e)  As Rich said – it can take 15 minutes.  I believe settling markets on Betfair is the main cause of site slow down so they try to time it in times of lower activity… :biggrin: whether it works or not, erm…  hehehehe
Im going to start using this system myself shortly.
Lets hope it keeps going!  I may start another laying system soon, looking at some stats at the moment to see if its workable.
(Edited by larry layer at 3:46 pm on April 20, 2002)
