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Here in Japan, Through Seven Seas is the sixth favorite in most exotic bets which should tell you that the betting public doesn’t really fancy her chances.
Westover is favored here over Hukum which I think makes sense but still a little surprising. Age is a factor of course but does Hukum really need soft ground?
Bay Bridge is 50 to 1 here but every second punter over there seems to be touting him. He’s an ‘autumn’ horse? It’s hardly persuasive. And doesn’t he need soft ground too?
Ace Impact is the favorite here followed by Westover, Feed the Flame and Fantastic Moon. I’ll play those in trios and trifectas and also toss in Hukum and Place Du Carousel.
Although the Japanese dream of winning the Arc they’re very savvy gamblers and you should know that they are backing Alpinista, Onesto and Luxembourg (in that order) over Titleholder.
Yes, you make a good point about Mishriff. And I don’t think there’s much doubt that this horse takes to dirt more than turf. I mean there’s no way he surpasses his performance in Riyadh.
I didn’t give Ghaiyyath a chance in the Arc but at this distance and on a fast track I like him here over Enable. If Enable turns up fit and ageless then Ghaiyyath probably finishes second but when do you bet against Enable if not now?
Deirdre will also be a key horse in my exotics.
Good news for Oisin Murphy fans – Suave Richard will run in the season-ending Grand Prix (the Arima Kinen) on December 22nd and Oisin will be on the saddle.
It looks to be a high quality field so he’ll have his work cut out for him but it promises to be an exciting race. In Japan, the Arima Kinen is actually a bigger race than the Japan Cup.
“Japanese horses are my friends…” Such a delightful young man. Hopefully he will ride Suave Richard again in December in the season-ending Arima Kinen.
Bold prediction by Goda-san, but I like it. I’m still keying Wagnerian but I have Suave, Rey, Cheval as well as Look Twice and Etario in a trio formation. It’s still raining here but it should stop by early morning, after which the sun may make an appearance. How fast the course dries out could be a big factor. Doesn’t seem to be much interest in this race overseas but good luck to all those playing.
That’s interesting, wit. However, those are rather arbitrary English translations. For example, the Japanese word for soft in this instance is 不良 which I would never think to translate as ‘soft’ – ‘heavy’ would be far more accurate.
It’s raining rather heavily in Tokyo as I write this and more rain is forecast for the weekend. The course drains well though so it’ll probably be ‘yielding’ by race time. But that should give some of the horses coming off the pace a better chance and eliminate the possibility of a ridiculously fast time like last year.
I remember when this used to be one of the most looked forward to races of the year. Some of Europe’s and America’s finest used to take up the challenge. But alas in recent years there’s only been a few token entries and this year none at all…It’s not because of the prize money on offer – I think it’s the second most lucrative race in the world. It’s probably the Tokyo racetrack – it’s a beast. Enable, Waldgeist etc. are outstanding horses but they wouldn’t stand a chance at Tokyo.
I’ll be at the track on Sunday anyways. But many of Japan’s best horses won’t be. The Hong Kong races promise to be much more exciting.
I’ll probably include Wagnerian in most of my wagers on Sunday. Very reliable if unspectacular performer.
In Japan Waldgeist paid 34 to win. The exacta paid 65-1. I didn’t get either of those but I was on the trio for 25-1.
Fierement finished last. But the Japanese will be back again next year.
The Green Channel in Japan states that Sottsass has overtaken Japan as the second favourite. Is that information correct?
Anyways, I’ve decided to go with Enable Sottsass, Waldgeist and Magical. Good luck to all.
I’d say the first 4 home will be Enable, Magical, Waldgiest, Japan.
Yes, I’m leaning that way myself. Love Sottsass’s turn of foot but agree with Potato that it’s likely to be blunted here.
Connections for Fierement would definitely prefer a fast track. Sunday Silence/Deep Impact bloodlines thrive on the fast courses in Japan. That’s why Almond Eye’s connections made the sensible decision to pass on this race. I’m pretty sure She’d destroy Enable in Tokyo…
Thanks for the weather update, Mike007!
It seems like there was some heavy rainfall in the morning. Would greatly appreciate any up-to-date info on the ground condtion, track bias etc. (preferably from someone not associated with ‘the Team’). Cheers.
Regarding the Japanese invaders, Kiseki and Blast Onepiece can handle soft going (Fierement is untested) but I still don’t like their chances (Fierement and Blast Onepiece are the the third and fourth favorites after Enable and Japan here in Japan).
Magical wont be sacrificed for japan..
Magical is a classy mare who deserves her chance to be sure so, yes, I guess she won’t be purposely ‘sacrificed’ per se but if she takes on Enable it may amount to the same thing. Donnacha has a big chance here so I think he’ll want to try something a little out of the ordinary because as Frenchy15 said Magical’s ordinary 124 RPR clearly isn’t good enough. Sure, backers can hope for a sub-par performance from Enable in which case Magical will have every chance but a bold ride by Donnacha could work out better for AOB I think. Best case scenario Japan wins, worst case scenario Magical finishes 2nd or 3rdish…
Also, looking at her dominant performance in the Irish Champion, I can’t help thinking that’s her best distance. She seems to fade a little at 2400m. I could be wrong – just throwing it out there.
Soft Light may well be a fast improving proper horse but Take Yutaka is out of his depths here. And he’s only a second rate jockey in Japan these days.
If AOB feels Japan is his best chance to win the Arc – which he probably does – he may have Magical breaking earlier than usual which would be irresistible bait for Frankie on Enable. She will accept the challenge and no doubt wear Magical down (and waste Ghiayyath as well) but she will have expended a considerable amount of energy in the process allowing Japan and/or Sottsass to catch her on the line.
That scenario sounds right to me.
In Japan bets can’t be placed until Sunday morning (Japan time) but I’m fairly certain Enable will be the heavy favorite followed by Japan (thanks in part to his name if course), Fierement, Blast Onepiece, Sottsass and then Kiseki, Magical and Waldergeist. Connections for the Japanese invaders are talking up their chances but I suspect they’re being encouraged to do so by the Japan Racing Association (JRA) which makes a killing on this race every year the Japanese horses fail – and this year will be no exception I think. I intend to make a killing myself by betting against them. Enable on top of a trio formation with Sottsass, Japan and Waldgeist should pay well here in Japan (fingers crossed). I’ll throw in Ghaiyyath (I’m skeptical but he’s scary) and Magical for insurance and the worst I should do is break even.
