[kersly]

Friday 29th Nov<br>Flat Non Hcp(AW)<br>12.30 Wolvs-Magenta Rising(6 inc p/d no adj TS)1m.5f 2-y-o F Mdn St..f/c 7/4…12 run…..Won 7/4

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.20 Newb-Saitensohn(7)2m5f C Nov H…f/c 6/4…10 run….Won 1/1<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>2.05 Wolvs-King Revo(5)…..Lost<br>Nat Hunt Hcp<br>12.45 Bangor-Bold Hunter(6)…Lost(another faller that looked like winning)

kersly<br>

(Edited by kersly at 4:03 pm on Nov. 29, 2002)

[kersly]

Hi Mr E,<br>Selections are worked out from the paper version of the RP.After discussions with other posters there is obviously a discrepancy between "paper RP" and "online RP".I havent a clue why but it has been pointed out a few times.The online version seems to leave out certain pieces of information,it makes the idea unworkable.I only use the paper version. I notice there was an odds on loser today Mr E,it was f/c at 5/4 but shortened to 1/2 the only way to have eliminated that was to have access to the live market or place the bet with a local bookie and stipulate "odds on-no bet".That may be a way forward.Just hope the idea can hold its own over the last 2 days of Nov,then an analysis.Thank goodness for Claymore,didnt it look impressive.

Hi Dave,<br>Ill look forward to your findings.there is always room for improvement.Lets see if further improvements can be made. <br>Cheers-kersly

(Edited by kersly at 12:39 am on Nov. 29, 2002)<br>

(Edited by kersly at 12:47 am on Nov. 29, 2002)

[kersly]

Thursday 28th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp <br>2.35 Uttox-Claymore(6)..f/c 9/2……………..7 run…Won 5/1<br>1.50 Carlisle-Harrovian(5)..f/c 11/4…………9 run..Lost-Unp<br>12.35 Taunton-Spring Dawn(7)..f/c 11/4….14 run..Lost-2nd 5/1<br>1.05 Taunton-Gin Palace(7)..f/c 5/4…………14 run..Lost-2nd 1/2

A busy day it could help hopefully to the 20+ points for Nov..;) Famous last words. <br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>2.45 Carlisle-Nemisto(5)..f/c 9/2…Lost-2nd 0/30

Hi Dave,Mr E,<br>Im afraid I dont have all the parameters required for your kind offer of results analysis.Im missing number of runners and f/c SP.<br>Ive tended to look for patterns in the type of races and note if a 4/5/6/7 qualifier made any difference,also was Postdata important.I could research the info required or alternatively start to record the required info each day from now on.It may be better to do that as then the f//c SP could also be recorded.Ill do the last few days over the weekend as I still have RPs.<br>Your interest is appreciated.

kersly <br>

(Edited by kersly at 8:43 pm on Nov. 28, 2002)

[kersly]

Wednesday 27th Nov.<br>Points taken Mr E.Ill go to the end of the month as it is then probably a revision.

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.45 Weth-Zaffarani…f/c 13/8…………Lost<br>1.55 Chep -No Need For Alarm..f/c 4/6……Won 2/5<br>___________________________________________<br>1.35 Ling-Cill Droichead..f/c 14/1 a high f/c SP Ill probably do as before and make this an each way selection,it wont be recorded in the figs,only other one in Nov like this won at 11/2..aaarrrgh….3rd 9/1<br>____________________________________________<br>Hcps-reference only<br>Flat<br>3.45 Ling-Lara Falana……Lost<br>Nat Hunt<br>12.35 Weth-Interdit………lost

kersly<br> <br>

(Edited by kersly at 3:14 pm on Nov. 29, 2002)

[kersly]

Hi Mr E,<br>No problem Mr E I appreciate your observations,surely the purpose of the board.<br>My  post of 19-11-02 indicates Ive doubts about f/c odds on selections,they do look a dodgy medium,perhaps the stipulation odds on no bet but thats not possible on the net  when having to  place bets early,sadly no use of Betfair either.Havnt had much time but even a quick scan through results show that leaving odds on selections out would apparently not have reduced the profits it might even had made Oct a + month.I need to analyse further.In reality Ive very little data to prove one way or another.Ill use the idea to the end of the month then take stock.Im also concerned about Chase races but yet again not enough evidence to have any firm conclusions.<br>Lets see how it develops.

kersly

<br>

[kersly]

Hi Mr E,<br>As stated the only selections I invest on are the Non Hcp Selections both Nat Hunt and Flat(inc AW).There was a change to the selection procedure at the beginning of NOV.The basis of the selection procedure is still there in its present form from NOv 1st the results are as shown.

Sequence of Flat Results……….

6/4,L,L,L,L,5/2,3/1,L,5/2,11/10,3/1,7/2,L,L,L,11/8,L,2/1,L

Selections…………….. 19<br>Wins…………………….   9<br>Staked………………….  19<br>Returned……………….29.47<br>P/L……………………….(+10.47)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Sequence of NH Results for Nov.

L,L,4/1,5/1,L,4/6,L,L,L,L,L,L,4/7,L,9/4,L,L,10/11,2/5,L,<br>11/8,L,L,L,0/30,L,L,13/8,4/9,L,1/1,5/4,L,L,9/4,2/5,L,<br>5/2,L,L.

Selections…………………….40<br>Wins……………………………16<br>Staked…………………………24<br>Return………………………….43.91<br>P/L………………………………(+3.91)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Combined to 1 point level stakes(+14.38)<br>_____________________________________________<br>October finished with a Combined loss of (-0.98)-seemed to coincide with end of Flat season.<br>_____________________________________________<br>September showed a combined Profit of (+30.00)

kersly<br>

[kersly]

Hi Mr E-Ill reply soon.

Tuesday 26th Nov<br>Flat (AW) Non Hcp<br>12.05 Southwell-Blue Trojan………..Lost<br>1.05 Southwell-Surdoue………………Won 5/2

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:03 pm on Nov. 26, 2002)

[kersly]

Monday 25th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>2.00 Newcastle-Valereux……Lost<br>3.20 Ludlow-Ballycassidy……Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>12.45 Ludlow Sadlers Secret……Lost<br>3.30 Newcastle-Trooper………….Lost

kersly<br>

(Edited by kersly at 1:15 pm on Nov. 26, 2002)

[kersly]

Sunday 24th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.45 Fakenham-Mark It…….Won 5/2<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>2.15 Fakenham-Strong Magic……Lost<br>3.20 Fakenham-Take Heed………Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>In the 12.25 Aintree-Jupiter De Bussy qualifies apart from f/c SP may well relent and make this an each way selection but wont include in records whatever the outcome……Won 11/2

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 8:49 pm on Nov. 24, 2002)

[kersly]

Sat 23rd Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.35 Hunt-Krabloonik(7)…………Lost<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>11.50 Ling-Coffee Time(7)……Lost<br>1.50 Ling-Marnie(7)….Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:37 pm on Nov. 23, 2002)<br>

(Edited by kersly at 9:02 pm on Nov. 24, 2002)

[kersly]

Friday 22nd Nov

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>2.05 Ascot-Master George……..Won 9/4<br>2.40 Ascot-Baracouda……………Won 2/5<br>_____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>1.10 Exeter-Wartorn……Meeting Abandoned

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 4:52 pm on Nov. 22, 2002)<br>

(Edited by kersly at 11:21 am on Dec. 1, 2002)

[kersly]

Thursday 21st Nov<br>Non Hcp Nat Hunt<br>12.25 M.Rasen-Domenico(6)…Non Runner<br>12.45 Winc-Orangerie(6)……..Lost<br>1.20 Winc-Janiture(6)………….Lost<br>____________________________________________<br>Nat Hunt Hcp-reference only<br>1.10 Hereford-Nick The Jewel(7)…Won<br>1.40 Hereford-Smart Lord(5)…Lost<br>2.00 M.Rasen-Juracon II(7)…Lost<br>3.20 Winc-Chief Cashier(7)…Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 12:23 am on Nov. 22, 2002)

[kersly]

Wednesday 20th Nov

2.15 Southwell-Indian Steppes(6)..Lost(2nd)

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 8:29 pm on Nov. 20, 2002)

[kersly]

November so far up to and including Tuesday 19th Nov

NON HCP FLAT<br>Selections…………………………..17<br>Wins………………………………….. 8<br>Staked………………………………..17.00 points<br>Returned……………………………..25.97 Points<br>Profit/Loss……………………………(+8.97)

NAT HUNT NON HCP<br>Selections……………………………..33<br>Wins……………………………………..14<br>Staked…………………………………..33.00 points<br>Returned………………………………..38.29 points<br>Profit/Loss………………………………(+5.29)

Combined………………………………..(+14.26)<br>_____________________________________________<br>Monitoring Hcps only;<br>Flat Hcp<br>Selections…………………………………2<br>Win…………………………………………..1<br>Staked………………………………………2.00 points<br>Returned……………………………………6.50 points<br>Profit/Loss………………………………….(+4.50)

Nat Hunt Hcp<br>Selections……………………………………8<br>Wins……………………………………………1<br>Staked…………………………………………8.00 points<br>Returned………………………………………3.00 points<br>Profit/Loss…………………………………….(-5.00)

Combined………………………………………(-0.50)

From this years results using this idea and from a period studied some while ago if a horse is quoted at 7/1 + the strike rate is very low this would have eliminated a few losers,also I question the worth of backing f/c odds on.<br>Ill follow as per original idea for the time being.

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 3:21 pm on Nov. 19, 2002)

[kersly]

Tuesday 19th Nov<br>Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.30 Kelso-Interdit(5 no p/d)2m6.5f D Nov Ch…Lost<br>2.00 Kelso-Lady Lap Dancer(4 no p/d no adj TS)2m.5f G Sell H…Won 1/1<br>1.40 N.Abb-Joly Bey(7)2m5.5f C Nov Ch…Won 5/4<br>_____________________________________________<br>Flat Hcp-reference only<br>1.50 Ling-Looking Down(5)..Lost

kersly<br>

(Edited by kersly at 2:53 pm on Nov. 19, 2002)

[kersly]

Monday 18yh Nov<br>Flat Non Hcp(AW)<br>12.35 Wolvs-Bond Royale(6)….Won 2/1

Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.15 Folk-Kosamet(5)…………….Lost<br>1,55 Leic-Sunridge Fairy(7)……..Won 13/8<br>2.25 Leic-Bow Strada(6)…………Won 4/9

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 3:55 pm on Nov. 18, 2002)

[kersly]

Sunday 17th Nov Nat Hunt Non Hcp<br>1.10 Chelt-Taming(5)……………………..Won 100/30<br>3.45 Hayd-Russian Gigolo(6)…………..Lost

kersly

(Edited by kersly at 7:51 pm on Nov. 17, 2002)

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