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2.00 – Desert Cry (NAP) (Sire De Grugy)
2.30 – Master Of The Hall (Wayward Prince)
3.05 – Master Minded (Mad Max)
3.40 – Ballyholland (Mon Perrain)
4.15 – Mossley (Sparky May)
4.50 – Ackertac (Battle Group)
5.25 – Ceol Rua (Baby Shine)0.75pts e/w Ballyholland @ 20/1
(Ladbrokes)
Absolute minefield again, and I couldn’t help but be impressed by Mon Parrain’s success at Sandown, jumping beautifully. But in races such as this, I always think it’s wise to go for one at a price. My selection is Ballyholland in this race.
This 10yo is experienced over fences having raced in 6 PTPs, and 15 chases, with only 2 runs over hurdles. Clearly versatile, based on its 2 mile hurdle success over the now useful chaser Mr Cracker in Naas last January. Not the most typical of warm-ups for the Aintree feature when that run was followed by a 2 mile chase run, beaten 10l by Tranquil Sea. This horse clearly has a touch of class, but simply didn’t get home in last year’s Grand National.
However, there was a lot to like about its run over the Aintree fences. Went well, running prominently for a long way, jumping like a stag on the whole. Really picks up at his fences which suits the course perfectly.
He is versatile in terms of ground – won 3 races (including PTPs) on quick ground, as well as 2 on softer ground, and 1 on Good/yielding.
Returned to the racecourse with a prep hurdle run at Naas on the 9th March, and ran a pleasing race to finish 11l off the winner (a progressive horse), after a long absence. Should have put him right for this race.
The trip today looks perfect for the horse, whose chase wins under rules have all come between 2m4f and 2m6f.
Given the way he jumped and travelled for a long way in the National last year, this race looks bang on for the horse, and off a 4lb lower mark, if retaining as much ability as a 10yo, should give us a good run for our money at a nice price.
Andrew McNamara has experience of the National fences with 6 runs under his belt. No great shows, but his runners have had odds of:
100/1, 100/1, 66/1, 33/1, 33/1, 25/1
So it’s hardly to be unexpected.
2.00 Sentry Duty (Knockara Beau)
2.30 Grandouet (Local Hero)
3.05 Punchestowns (Carole’s Legacy)
3.40 Silver Adonis (Turko)
4.15 Woolcombe Folly (Tchico Polos)
4.50 Medermit (Wishfull Thinking)
5.25 Pateese(NAP)
(Bothy)
3.40 Aintree –
1pt e/w Silver Adonis @ 14/1
Initially I looked at Herons Well for the Fox Hunters but was concerned about its jumping. Has the tendency to jump quite low at his fences which would be a worry for me over the National obstacles.
I was one of the unfortunate group to back Baby Run at Cheltenham, and I remain that he would have won that day had young WTD stayed on, but another one I fear in the jumping department. Unseated last year in this race (and didn’t jump great up until his demise either), and made errors at Cheltenham. If he gets round then it’ll take a good one to beat him – but I would be willing to take it on at the price.
Now my selection has no worries about the course. Obviously any horse can come to grief on the National course, but it’s nice to have good form in the book. My selection, Silver Adonis was the winner of this race last year, staying on well to repel the reopposing Moncadou. That one may have been unlucky last year and could go well again this term.
However, Silver Adonis jumped very well on the whole (was slow at a couple and pecked on landing at Bechers), and stayed on strongly up the run-in. Is relatively young at 10 in this field, and looks capable of putting in a bold attempt to regain his crown.
Couldn’t really land a blow in some decent handicap chases after his success here last year, but was trying to give weight away, and ran respectably enough.
Looked to be primed for this race when sent to Kempton in March to give him a warm-up run, and appeared to be jumping very nicely when he unshipped Tom Weston at the 9th. Was creeping into the race, and didn’t even jump the fence badly. The winner was I Have Dreamed – who is clearly quite a nice horse based on his handicap form.
Ideally would have got round that day and finished competitively, but appeared to be in good health, especially since he has a poor record fresh. Hopefully despite finishing prematurely, that run will have blown away any cobwebs and have the horse ready for his challenge tomorrow.
Richard Newland’s horse have been in excellent form – 4 out of his last 6 runners have won, with Silver Adonis’ blemish, and Lorum Leader’s burst blood vessel stopping a possible 100% record.
Tom Weston is one of the better jockeys in this field, and boasts an impressive £47.17 profit to £1 stakes in chases.
Everything is in place for a big run, though Turko and Baby Run are obvious threats should they complete. Turko may want further, though, and did fall in the 2008 National.
5.25 Aintree –
1pt e/w Pateese @ 12/1
Another minefield of a race, but one down the bottom end of the handicap interests me. It is the Philip Hobbs trained Pateese. This French horse was purchased for £35,000 in July 2009 after racing on the flat over the channel. Despite not being a world beater, he did pick up a 2 mile Longchamp handicap in April 2009.
This obviously would suggest to me that the horse would stay a trip over hurdles, but Hobbs finally had the horse primed in November last year for his first run over obstacles. Ran a very respectable race after an absence, on heavy ground at Exeter – to tire late on to 3rd, having challenged at 3 out.
It stepped up on this, expectedly, at Newbury in December when running 3rd to Minella Class, with Red Merlin back in 2nd. Pateese was beaten under 10l in the end. Minella Class ran 6th in the Neptune Investment and is currently rated 145. Red Merlin has progressed nicely to be rated 130.
Again Pateese found one too strong next time out, when being no match for Buddy Holly at Towcester.
Pateese did manage to get his head in front at Ffos Las, however, on his fourth hurdling start. He stayed on well to beat Ballinteni by 3 3/4l. That horse had some solid hurdling form so it was another step in the right direction.
This horse continued to improve and ran an excellent 2nd next time to Via Galilei. Battled on really well but was no match for the Gary Moore trained horse, though the pair pulled clear of Sire Collonges.
Again Pateese ran a really good race in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Was right in the frame until just getting done for speed by Alarazi, and Via Galilei again, but finished an excellent 3rd of 24 by just over 5l.
Is now rated 129 but I think that’s fair for this ever improving horse. Jumps really well for a novice, and is tenacious. I think this step up in trip is what the horse has been calling out for, given his staying exploits on the flat, and could give him a greater chance of fighting off the finishers.
Novices have a good record in the race, and off a featherweight, Pateese can give plenty of these a lot to think about.
Unfortunately for me, I’ll be at Ripon Races working, as opposed to sat at home watching BBC!
Is it okay if I post these in here?
3.20 Nottingham –
Perfect Pastime @ 4/1
Tricky little handicap but the one that interests me is the Walter Swinburn trained Perfect Pastime. Whilst not an out-and-out sprinter on pedigree, this gelding by Pastoral Pursuits showed form in every start at 2 without managing to get his head in front.
Started his career as a 16/1 shot in a 6f maiden at Windsor back in June, where he only found one too good in the shape of Major Dude of Richard Hannon. That horse flopped in a useful conditions race at Newmarket but was clearly a fancied horse as he went off 8/11 in the Windsor maiden, and 7/2 at Newmarket.
Perfect Pastime ran a creditable race on his 2nd start when 5th of 14 at Salisbury, though was 7l behind the first 3, who drew clear. Again, the winner was an 8/11 shot trained by Richard Hannon. However, this horse did go on to better things. Royal Exchange was that horse, who since won a listed race, and was a close 3rd in a Group 2 won by Rerouted. The horse in 2nd at Salisbury, Midnight Feast, was beaten in a Lingfield maiden, but was perhaps not suited by the track, and in the end it proved to be no disgrace. The winner of that race was Cochabamba, who Midnight Feast gave 5lbs that day. The Roger Teal trained Cochabamba proved a revelation as she went on to run 2nd in Listed, Group 3, and Group 2 company – behind Lily Again, Theyskens’ Theory, and Cape Dollar respectively.
The other horse part of the first 3 at Salisbury was Fight The Chance of Mick Channon’s. On that horse’s final start of the season at Chester, it beat Little Lion Man in a class 2 conditions race. So the Salisbury form is pretty strong. The respective ORs of the first 3 are now 103, 84 and 91.
Perfect Pastime returned to Windsor over 5f next time out, and was just unable to challenge when finishing 4th, beaten 1l. Showed a few signs of inexperience but finished well. That would, however, suggest that 5f may just be too sharp.
On its first run in a handicap, things appeared to drop right, but he hung right and was headed close home by Loki’s Revenge. Would have won had he kept straight. Again the form looks solid, as that horse is now rated 88 and won two all-weather races at the end of 2010.
Ran another excellent race when 3rd at Sandown in a September Nursery, but in the end Jack Smudge and Pick A Little wore him down, relegating him to 3rd. Jack Smudge is another horse who went on to record 2 further successes, and is also rated 88 now.
Perfect Pastime’s latest run can be ignored. In a 5f race at Newbury, he raced alone just off the stands side rail before joining the main bunch at half way. Did well to stay on to be beaten 5l in 8th under the circumstances. Was drawn 14 and those drawn 11, 12 and 13 finished in the final 3 positions.
Nothing wrong with the horse’s attitude (though does hang right a bit). Been unlucky meeting progressive horses and one day he’ll win a handicap. I think that day will be today. Off a mark of 73 which looks ready to be taken advantage of. Went well on debut which gives hope for his seasonal return, and Walter Swinburn’s last four runners have been placed.
4.00 Lingfield –
Maydream @ 8/1
This is a weak 2 mile handicap, and it might be worth siding with a potentially unexposed horse over this trip.
Maydream showed little in maidens, but has benefited from the switch to handicap, to record some respectable performances. Despite finishing 8th on her handicap debut at Wolverhampton over 12f in December, she was only beaten 4 1/2l behind Alternative Choice in a weak, but competitive, handicap. A move which I found a bit strange was to drop the filly back down in trip at Kempton where she raced over 10f next time out. This was again a decent effort, and was better than the form shows. Another very poor race, but Maydream was snatched up just before the 3f marker, and considering this horse appears to be a galloper – and doesn’t do anything very quickly, this gave her no chance over the 10f trip. She picked up again to finish 6th, beaten just over 6l.
Trainer Jimmy Fox decided to send her over a much greater distance at Wolverhampton next time. The 2 mile trip looked to be ideal on what she had shown previously, and her sister raced in bumpers, as well as her dam being placed over 12f. She had staying influence in her pedigree also. Unfortunately the Wolverhampton race was the rather farcical affair won by Six Of Clubs. All the jockeys pulled up thinking the race was to be voided as a stricken horse remained on the home turn, but this was not the case. Some jockeys eventually proceeded to continue and finish the race. However, Sam Hitchcott on Maydream was not one of these. Frustrating as we didn’t get to see whether she definitely stayed the 2 mile trip.
Her most recent run was the closest she has come to winning a race, finishing well to finish a 3/4l third to Little Richard over 12f at Kempton. Again, didn’t do anything too quickly, but ran on all the way to the line to be closing at the finish.
These races are very moderate affairs but there could be more to come over staying trips. A mark of 46 may prove very fair for this filly over further.
This race is far from a strong one, though, also. Dansilver is in good form and goes well here, but a rating of 64 may prevent him winning again. The two horses in form that he beat last time out are both maidens, and Camps Bay – who he beat over c&d recently – is a perennial place horse nowadays.
Prince Charlemagne ran in the Wolverhampton race behind Six of Clubs, but it is hard to assess that race in terms of form, and failed to run well last time out (when very easy to back). The market often tells the story with this horse so it is definitely worth watching.
I think this could be set up for one of the less exposed horses, and out of those, I very much think Maydream could be the one to beat. The track may not play to her strengths as ideally as Wolverhampton, or Kempton, but in a weak field, it might not be enough to stop her at a rewarding price (currently 6.8/1 on Betfair)
5.30 Lingfield –
Clearing House @ 2/1
I backed this horse when it won on the 19th March over c&d, where it displayed a fine turn of foot to put the race to bed. Blasted through runners to settle matters and drew clear to win readily. This was on the back of a couple of sound runs, though Lingfield is the place where Clearing House loves it most. It was an impressive 20/1 winner over c&d when coming through plenty of problems to score from the reopposing Christmas Coming by 1 1/4l in early March. Clearing House was getting a stone that day, but the way he won suggested it would take a big swing in the weights for the form to be turned around. Tomorrow there is only 2lbs between the runners, though Adam Beschizza takes off a very handy 5lbs – and I think he is a very capable jockey too.
Confirmed his wellbeing over 7f at Kempton next time out, when going down by a nose to long-time maiden Cane Cat. Met trouble in running and had to be switched wide to finish strongly to just fail. Ran a stinker at Wolverhampton next time out but is easily excused from that run. Both the track and the trip were against him with 9f around Wolverhampton proving far from ideal. The return back to the c&d where Clearing House has recorded 2-2 this year will suit to perfection, and can make it 3-3 tomorrow.
Perfect Pastime is now generally a 9/4 chance after defections.
Personally, probably with a mixture of head and heart, I think Comply Or Die will run a big race on Saturday.
I agree it’s easy to glance at the form figures and write it off, but it showed little before running 2nd in 2009 (though didn’t race over any marathon trips that season if I recall correctly). However, its recent form for me is a lot better than it looks.
Take a look at its run around Warwick. 6th, beaten 32l says the formbook, but he jumped superbly and kept battling out in front until headed as they started the run for home. Gradually weakened after, but made a bad mistake at the last, which probably exaggerated the margin also – though he was well beat at the time. That was a great run in my opinion under the circumstances.
Same applies at Newcastle in the Eider Chase. Has a P next to his name, but that’s hardly disgraceful given the circumstances. Again he jumped well, and despite feeling the pinch at about 4 or 5 out, kept galloping better than some, and may even have regained 3rd had he finished the race.
Considering he was giving lumps of weight to his rivals in both those runs, carrying 11-12 on heavy ground over marathon trips.
The ground will be a lot better on Saturday, and is given a great chance at the weights for the first year since his success. I think he will run well for a long way, if not all the way, and there are far worse 50/1 shots about.
Hello everyone.
My name is Ben, and I come from North Yorkshire. I’m 19 years old so have a lot to learn, but have loved racing from the first step on a racecourse. It’s a great area to live in with lots of local courses, with Ripon and Wetherby the two tracks I’ve been to most – though I love York and Doncaster. Have also been to Catterick, Thirsk, Beverley, and Aintree – for the 2009 Grand National.
I haven’t been as much recently since my Grandad died in 2009, and my Dad is now terminally ill, so both people I would go with, I can’t anymore. Looking forward to going to Doncaster in late April with some friends, though!
I’ve watched racing for years on the telly, too, and just find it a fantastic sport.
My favourite performances for different reasons are Motivator’s success in the 2005 Derby, Denman’s Hennessy wins, Workforce’s Derby win, and the performance responsible for my username on here
I had only been regularly watching racing for a short time before Indian Ink quickened away to thrash the opposition in the Coronation Stakes at Ascot. It remains a personal favourite – even if not one of the first races to spring to mind in many people’s heads!
Obviously it’s limited as I wasn’t around, or old enough, to see some of the older greats. Have watched some videos though and seeing horses such as Shergar is pretty breathtaking.
I don’t really have much of a preference between national hunt racing, and the flat, though usually I prefer the season that is upcoming! The Cheltenham Festival is comfortably my favourite week of racing, though. The rest of the jumps season can be a bit indifferent for me, sometimes, though, as everything is geared towards that one week in March.
My favourite horse currently in training is Time For Rupert, who I fell in love with when it showed guts to repel Inchidaly Rock, and then won a big handicap hurdle at Cheltenham having been under pressure for a long way. Knew it would become a top-class chaser, and I was gutted when it bled in the RSA. Ran a game race under the circumstances in the end, and hopefully he can gain some compensation next year!
Sorry for going on a bit, but there you go…like I say, still have a lot to learn, but ever willing to do so, and hope I can contribute something to the site
