- This topic has 528 replies, 108 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 1 month ago by
.
- Posts
peter.h
I appreciate your input. In the race you mention Bluesea Cracker finished a country mile in front of Character Building when giving a pound in weight. Therefore if Character Building is in the equation then with favourable soft ground so must be Bluesea Cracker. Indeed with the ground any worse than gd-sft I wouldn’t touch Character Building with stolen money.
You mention in your post not to forget the Topham?
Does anyone out there have a good angle on what the performances of horses withdrawn from the National have been like in the Topham?
Whilst it would be nice to have the winner of the big race itself, I am more than happy to take my winners anywhere that I can find them.
‘Education is the school of mankind and they will learn at no other’
Yeah, but to be fair Character Building went on to run a very creditable race in the Grimphorpe, finishing 3rd and although this should, of all things improve Bluesea’s profile because like you said she finished ahead of him that day, but since then she’s disappointed, even on her favourable ground. I just don’t think she’s in the right form.
Just had a quick browse through former winners. Monty’s Pass + Bindaree both ran in the 2m6f hcap chase over the National course at the previous year’s Grand National meet, 2nd + 4th. Mon Mome, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch + Amberleigh House had all run in the previous year’s Grand National. The latter also ran in the 2m 6f chase. Numbersixvalverde had won an Irish Grand National. Comply or Die + Don’t Push It don’t have anything like this on their pre-National victory records.
Here’s a theory and its just a theory on Bluesea poor form,
In greyhound racing bitches come into season and their form suffers, I was wondering does the same happen to mares in horse racing.
Since horses are animals they will obviously have some days better than others.
I know that there are many mornings when I wake up in a shitty mood, mostly after one of my certainties has fell at the first.
Anyway horses must be affected by mood the same as any other animal. So your theory about being in season and that affecting form seems more than plausible to me.
In general mares don’t come into season in the winter months so that wouldn’t affect Blueseas form this winter. Tends to start uo around April time. Not sure if racehorses are allowed to be given stuff like Regumate to stop them coming into season?
Like most racing enthusiasts i love this race as a spectacle BUT not for serious betting purposes. Despite doing well over the past few years i still keep my stakes to a minimum and have been disciplined this year despite having my best Cheltenham on record!
I have backed 3 all EW.
My main hope and largest bet (total of £30 EW) is from the Willie Mullins yard again and
Obviously i shall have a couple of fivers EW on the day at long shots with daughters names or pets but that’s the last of my ante post bets done. Good Luck to you all for this most excellent of races to enjoy.
davy russel now reported for becauseicouldn;t see ride, becauseicouldntsee said to be 99percent certain to race
vf
davy russel now reported for becauseicouldn;t see ride, becauseicouldntsee said to be 99percent certain to race
vf
Becauseicouldntsee is a horse I like but my concern is that he has only had 7 chase runs to date. This is only his second season chasing and I presume second season chasers have a poor record in the National. Also, having had a wind op after his Leopardstown run at Christmas, he hasn’t run for months. I’d prefer the time-honoured hurdle prep run in Feb or early March just to sharpen him up.
So, reluctantly, he’s off my list.
As an aside, how has the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown worked out as a pointer to future Nationals?
Becauseicouldntsee ran a good second to Majestic Concorde this season while Oscar Time hosed up last year. All three guaranteed a place in the National line up.I thought Becauseicouldn’t see actually had surgery on an injury. Certainly put me off backing him. not the sort of preparation a horse would want in the run up to the race, although I don’t think he had too much time off with it.
I thought Becauseicouldn’t see actually had surgery on an injury. Certainly put me off backing him. not the sort of preparation a horse would want in the run up to the race, although I don’t think he had too much time off with it.
Sorry, you’re probably right about the op. I just made the assumption that the surgery was the usual breathing related thing.
It would be nice to see someone like Noel Glynn do well mind. I like the idea of an owner/trainer beating the big stables in the world’s greatest race. Will probably end up backing one from the big stables, though, hypocrite that I am!Trainer stated that he had minor surgery after his run in The Paddy Power. As a result of that, it was always the plan to go straight to Aintree without a prep run.
It was only a few weeks ago he was just 50-50 to make it, but he’s obviously progressing well now.
Until recently, I’ve always found the National an easy (and usually very profitable) race – however Phil Smith has changed all that with his compression of the weights at the top. Until Mon Mome you could effectively ignore anything above 11 stone and that whittled down the field by a good third. Unfortuneately, those days are over, but weight is still a key factor.
The horse which is well in at the weights in 2011 is State of Play, which has been placed the last 2 years and has 5 pound less (3 pound lower mark) than 2010 when third. I’ve been speaking with quite a few people who fancy Big Fella Thanks even though it was beaten by State of Play last year and is 8 pound worse off – having a numerical background I’m bemused by this, especially since Fella is also much shorter in the betting.
Evan Williams has planned to go straight to the National without a run and at 25s State is outstanding EW value compared to some of the horses who are much shorter in the betting, especially with it having a proven track record (twice). I’ve got a significant amount on at 40s and for the first 5 places.
The big value on the second selection has long gone i.e. Oscar Time. Once I heard Robert Waley-Cohen bought it I piled in at 50s, however I think it also has a great EW chance. If you need reasons for this selection, watch Pricewise’s view on RPTV after the weights were announced and if doesn’t convince you nothing will.
Since the weights were published I have been very keen on Backstage and Calgary Bay. Got 33/1 on the pair of them.
Browsing the remainder of the field, State Of Play is another obvious candidate – has been placed on his pervious two efforts in the contest, is well weighted and goes particularly well fresh (won a Hennessy on seasonal bow).
An outsider I may have a small flutter on is Roll Along (100/1). Has clearly had problems, but has been a very classy sort on his day and finished runner-up in an RSA Chase.
His dam is a half-sister to Nahthen Lad (completed course three times from four attempts). She was by Montelimar, who was responsible for Hedgehunter and Monty’s Pass.
I can’t see the horse winning, but there are less likely place candidates available at half the price.
I backed Big Fella Thanks on his two previous attempts at the race and he ran a blinder in both. Sadly, I don’t think he truly stays the marathon trip – travelled like the likely winner for much of the race last year before tiring.
Oscar Time is interesting, but as you say the value has gone. My concern with him is that in last year’s Irish National he arrived at the final fence full of running but was well beaten by Bluesea Cracker in the end who put a good few lengths between them from the last.
His win in the Paddy Power the previous Christmas was very impressive, again travelling beautifully but that was off a much lower mark. Will he really stay 4.5 miles off his current mark?
As we know, State of Play goes well fresh but even off a lower mark it would take a leap of faith for me to back him. I prefer to look for a horse that is pretty unexposed over marathon trips, rather than one that has had a few goes at winning it.
If he gets in, I may back Arbor Supreme following his run in the Bobbyjo chase recently. Off level weights he ran The Midnight Club very close and now gets over a stone from the favourite.He travelled well till unseating at the chair last year and although that is far too early to have any real idea of how would have done, at a general 20-1 I think he is worth a small each way investment this time around.
But until I know the likely going, I will hold fire on any bets.
I am still open to persuasion on any other horses people put up on here, though.Corranard: As a trends follower i tend to not back anything above the 11 stone mark as this is one trend that goes very well despite the handicapper condensing the weights.
I also prefer to stick to the irish horses that can handle good ish ground as the days of the national being run in a bog seem to be well and truly gone. Therefore i look at the longer races over there (Ulster/Munster/Leinster Nationals and Bobbyjo) and have come up with a couple at decent prices:
Ballytrim from Paddy Mullins yard and Golden Kite (still requires a few to drop out to get a run but should be OK) from Adrian Maguires yard at 66s (80s available in places).
– having a numerical background
If that is the case Wigan, you should be ashamed of yourself. Weight has not had as much influence as you’d expect. Seems you expect those carrying 11 stones or more to win just as many times as those carrying under 11 stones. Yet over the last 25 years the latter group outnumbered the former by 5 to 1. Master Oats (5th) was the only horse to carry 11 stones or more in his year. Countless other times there were 2, 3, or 4 11st+ horses (incl. when Rhyme And Reason won, with West Tip placed) running against 36 or more carrying below 11 stones.
The amount of 11 stones plus winners, is exactly what you might expect from their number. What is more, percentage-wise they have a better record of being placed than lesser weights.
(see page 11 of this thread for more details)
If you believe a horse has all the attributes of a National winner and is well enough handicapped, and is value…. Back it, whatever the weight carried.
Trends followers tend to bend what has happened in the past. Or look at one statistic and dismiss a horse.
Personally the two I’ve backed are The Midnight Club and Silver By Nature, 10-13 and 10-12. But if the weights were to go up; it would make no difference to my betting. It is the weight in relation to other horses that matters, not the actual weight carried.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.