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I truly believe that RVW is a serious Group 1 horse and his run in the Eclipse would be easily good enough to take this.
However I have been analysing him a lot in the last couple of days and I have decided that he needs a small field to be seen at his best. Just look at his race record for a start. He has run in fields of > ten on 4 occasions – debut (2nd, awarded the race), Dewhurst (7th – stayed on once in the clear), Guineas (4th – stayed on once in the clear) and The Derby (4th – stayed on once in the clear). The 4 times he has had 10 or less runners he has won well on 3 occasions and finished 2nd to STS in The Eclipse. He’s a horse who has always to my eye looked a bit awkward when he’s needed to be manoeuvred in a race and not had things pan out nicely for him. His 2 wins as a 3yo have both come when he’s simply tracked one pacemaker, and his win as a 2yo was in a 4 runner race. In all 3 cases, everything panned out very nicely for him.
I know this isn’t at all a 100% certain theory. Indeed one could argue that he was simply inexperienced on his debut, ‘not right’ in the Dewhurst’ due to training problems, and again took time to come to hand as a 3yo and that explains defeat in the Guineas and Derby, and so the small field stats are just coincidence. This could be true, but I just think by looking at his way of running (particularly in the Dewhurst and Guineas) I am really starting to believe that he is a slightly ‘timid’ horse that is a star when things go his way but may not be cut out for the hustle and bustle of a big field Group 1 (also look at the way he shy’s away in The Eclipse after getting hit on his nose with Kinane’s whip. Yes I know he got hit, but a lot of horses don’t get put off to the extent that he clearly did). Look at the way he ‘loses’ his two races at Newmarket; as soon as it becomes a battle 2f out and they have to fight for position he gets left behind and he only stays on when he has some clear daylight to run into with 1f to go. I just can’t see him enjoying the experience of the Classic and I think he is one of these horses that simply needs a small field to be seen at his best.
Of course it could be that connections are aware of the above and try to offset it by racing in the front 2 or 3, meaning he won’t have to manoeuvre around horses or fight for position. This could work (and if I were them I would probably do it for the aforementioned reasons), but of course the danger is if he has to chase too hot a pace and leaves himself a sitting duck at the business end of the race.
So in summary, if RVW is held up in mid division amongst traffic in the Classic, I am of the very firm opinion that he will not be winning.
Gone to Lunch is slow and ain’t good enough. I’ll eat my own head if he wins the Hennessy!!
I don’t think he’ll win it (although I would love to see someone eat their own head so I’ll be cheering him on nevertheless!) but I can definitely imagine him running something like:
"In touch, ridden and outpaced 5 out, rallied from 3 out, finished well, not reach leaders"
. . . he’ll love the track with it’s long straights and could use his bottomless stamina to be a fast finishing (but unthreatening) 3rd or 4th, staying on past beaten rivals. He’ll probably be a 12/1-16/1 shot to win the race which I wouldn’t be overly interested in, but I really like the idea of backing him TBP @ 10/3, 7/2 ish
4.35 Kempton – CHOCOLATE COOKIE @ 11/4 (Stan James)
Looks like a very generous price to me. Think 6/4 would be more like it. Ran two decent races over 7f and 5f on the AW the last twice and this intermediate trip looks perfect. The form pick, a good 3lb claimer on board, in form, right trip, decent draw – happy days
I don’t like to jockey bash but . . . . .
Gone to Lunch
153 (10-5) perhaps wouldn’t have the same scope for improvement and may be a bit of a boat but he is another who will stay every yard and is very well suited to Newbury’s big oval track, and could definitely stay on into a place.
Nice Hennessy prep for GFL today. Can’t think of a worse track for him than Ascot so did ell to finish wher he did and stayed on nicely in the straight
Just one for me today:
2.05 Newmarket – LUCKY DANCE @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Won this race last year off the same mark as today. Can forgive him his last couple of runs due to fast ground/kickback. Not the most reliable horse but worth chancing at the price.
I’ve added:
4.35 Kempton – CHOCOLATE COOKIE @ 11/4 (Stan James)
Looks like a very generous price to me. Think 6/4 would be more like it. Ran two decent races over 7f and 5f on the AW the last twice and this intermediate trip looks perfect. The form pick, a good 3lb claimer on board, in form, right trip, decent draw – happy days
So to summarise a little more concisely, you think Binocular would beat Hurricane Fly
Just one for me today:
2.05 Newmarket – LUCKY DANCE @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Won this race last year off the same mark as today. Can forgive him his last couple of runs due to fast ground/kickback. Not the most reliable horse but worth chancing at the price.
I was reading somewhere that the Americans reckon Zenyatta will start a short priced favourite and Rip Van Winkle will kick off around 4/1 or even 5/1 because of the local support for the unbeaten filly.
That’s difficult to imagine but when you consider Raven’s Pass (8/1) paid $29 for a $2 stake, Conduit (7/2) $13.60 for $2, Donatovium (11/2) $13.6 for $2 Goldikova (9/4) $5.6 for $2
But Zeyatta who paid $3 for a $2 stake was returned 7/10 here, clearly shows how differently they can see things.
I’m think we can access the American PMU through Betfair but I’m unsure of deductions but if the weight of American money for Zenyatta is going to push Rip Van Winkle out would it not make perfect sense to back both home and away or am I missing something?
Indeed I think that the strategy of backing US horses at our prices and European horses at US prices could probably allow you to generate a book @ <100% on some races, thus guaranteeing profit. I have backed Zenyatta @ 6/1 and if I can cover myself with RVW @ 7/2 or 4/1 then I guess I’d be in a pretty nice position
I just don’t see how anyone can fancy Snoopy Loopy on these terms, especially given the form he has been in. Again, I really can’t see anything other than a Tamarinbleu or Ollie Magern victory. Most likely Tamarinbleu as he has a little bit more class and has the younger legs.
I’ve taken Ladbrokes’ 6/1 Zenyatta. Just too big to resist. I am sure RVW is a better horse than her and if I thought he would run to his Eclipse/Sussex form then I wouldn’t look to oppose him. But AOB’s record with horses at this time of the year is enough to make me oppose him.
My main fancy for the BC (particularly place/show) is
Gladiatorus
in the Mile. Think he’s going to run huge.
I’m also very keen to oppose
Mastercraftsman
in the Dirt Mlle. I think he’s had enough racing for the season and I don’t think he’ll be quick enough. No idea who I will bet against him but will start to have a good look. He’d be my lay of the meeting anyway.
Should also add that there are a load of Irish horses entered that haven’t yet been given official British marks on the RP site. Obviously plenty of interesting ones in there too.
Denman is so well suited to 3m2f+ at Newbury that he’d be a huge threat to anything off almost any mark. If back to his very best I think he could go very close or win off 174.
Although admittedly it would be a hell of an achievement if he could give the best part of 2 stone to a load of potentially improving second season chasers who could themselves be 10-20lbs better than their marks. The thing he has in his favour is that the staying novices didn’t look all that great last year.
Mathematically if he lines up off 174 with 11-12 you need a horse rated 148+ to be in the handicap proper on 10-0+. So I guess it’s time to look through the entries and find a circa 146-155 horse who has the scope for improvement.
What a Friend
152 (likely weight: 10-4) would be one. Goes well fresh, stays very well and has the right kind of profile.
Killyglen
153 (10-5). That mark looks fairly stiff but he is an interesting and improving horse.
Gone to Lunch
153 (10-5) perhaps wouldn’t have the same scope for improvement and may be a bit of a boat but he is another who will stay every yard and is very well suited to Newbury’s big oval track, and could definitely stay on into a place.
Another couple who would be a few lbs out of the handicap but interesting off 10st would be former winner
State of Play
145 and Irish National winner
Niche Market
145. Twiston Davies can get them ready first time up and if he has
Ballyfitz
146 back to his form of early last season he could also be of interest.
Anyone else have any other horses in mind?
Be very surprised if the winner came from anything other than Tamarinbleu or Ollie Magern. Even off levels I’d make them the two to best, and with the weights as they are they are just so far ahead of the rest. Plus they both love to be fresh so are likely to give their running.
1. Tamarinbleu
2. Ollie Magern
3. DarknessI think Solwhit has all the right credentials for this race but unfortuntely it seems the market agrees and he is a single figure price already. I am hoping that he gets beaten by Hurricane Fly/Binocular – the 2 horses who will surely dominate the small field/moderate pace 2m hurdles due to their turn of foot in the lead up to Cheltenham – a couple of times and drifts out to a more attractive price.
In other words I hope Binocular and HF dominate November-Feb, both go off at shortish prices, and then I can oppose them with Solwhit and one or two others at nice prices and hopefully watch the two hype horses get out battled in March!