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The role of luck is interesting. Whatever your strategy and level of skill any given season can be above or below average. I reckon, however, that over a 5 to 10 year period luck will gravitate to the mean. Therefore, you have to give yourself at least a couple of seasons and during that time you will be gaining knowledge and experience. You never stop learning.
Regarding the Grand National, how about Chris Pitt’s Go Down To The Beaten? It has a few inaccuracies but nowhere near the amount in, for example, Reg Green’s A Race Apart. Foinavon is definitely worth a place on the list. There is no comprehensive, highly accurate and up to date record of the race from 1836 in book form or online. I am in the process of putting together a website to rectify this but its probably 2 – 3 years away. One other book that should join the list is At The Festival by Richard Austen. I would be interested to learn your opinion of John Slusar’s books.
In short, Judge, the answer is yes. Its essential to keep detailed records unless you are someone who is unconcerned, for whatever reason, about how much you lose, Most people, like yourself, are concerned and if losing most are prone to chasing losses, at least for a bit, before perhaps temporarily ceasing to bet. When they start betting again they will mentally wipe the slate clean. This is one way bookmakers make a profit!
One of the many keys to successful punting is to keep a record not only of the actual bet but also of the type of race, your analysis/notes pertaining to how you expect each horse to perform – everything that informed your selection.
The cumulative data can indeed be used to detect profitable types of races, courses, etc. Including an advantageous range of odds.
Personally I could find no consistent trend regarding various class/course/distance combinations, I bet on Jumps only and suspect it is harder to make a profit on Class 4 and below. I also feel that its hard to break even (at worse) on bets at 2/1 and below. However, I think the importance of value is overstated. Ultimately the only value bet is a winning one! Do you agree Thehorsesmouth?
Much depends on your strategy. Basically I bet on every Jumps race shown on RUK, £10 Win or £10 E/W if the horse is 16/1 or bigger & at least 3 places. I do not vary my stake and place all a day’s bets before racing (no multiples Simon!) I allow my interpretation of the form to dictate the bet/s in each race with few preconceptions.
Remember, more bets will be losers than winners for even the successful punter. Unshakeable confidence in your method and ability must be maintained during a run of unprofitable days. Sticking to a fixed stake removes the temptation to chase losses. It reduces losses. Patience is paramount.
Yes thewexfordman it was an embarrassing mistake on the usually excellent RUK. Kate’s expertise is very much in the areas of the Flat and the racehorse as an animal so I was rather taken aback to find her the course analyst for a Saturday Jumps card. The homework she had done lacked feel for the Jumps but the blame must lie with whoever scheduled her appearance in preference to several alternatives that may have been available. What next? James Willoughby as the analyst at Ascot on Saturday! Sometimes I wish RUK had separate streams for Jumps and Flat.
