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B or S needs soft or heavy to produce his best.
He stays well but is getting on a bit and probably on the downgrade.
I presume he is still rated with an x for being a poor jumper by Timeform.
Any poor jumper should not be allowed to run in the National, however good he is.Ginge
Value Is Everything
I do like a challenge.
Table Of Odds And Chances
Evens=50% …. 21/20=48.8% …. 11/10=47.6% …. 6/5=45.5% ….5/4=44.4% …. 11/8=42.1% …. 6/4=40% …. 13/8=38.1% …. 7/4=36.4% …. 9/5=35.7% …. 15/8=34.8% …. 2/1=33.3% …. 85/40=32% …. 9/4=30.8% …. 5/2=28.6% …. 11/4=26.7% …. 3/1=25% …. 100/30=23.1% …. 7/2=22.2% …. 4/1=20% …. 9/2=18.2% …. 5/1=16.7% …. 11/2=15.4% …. 6/1=14.3% …. 13/2=13.3% …. 7/1=12.5% …. 15/2=11.7% …. 8/1=11.1% …. 17/2=10 5% …. 9/1=10% …. 10/1=9.1% …. 11/1=8.3% …. 12/1=7.7% …. 13/1=7.1% …. 14/1=6.7% …. 15/1=6.2% …. 16/1=5.9% …. 18/1=5.3% …. 20/1=4.8% …. 22/1=4.3% …. 25/1=3.8% …. 28/1=3.4% …. 33/1=3% …. 40/1=2.4% …. 50/1=2% …. 66/1=1.5% …. 80/1=1.2% …. 100/1=1% …. 132/1=3/4%(0.75%) …. 150/1=2/3%(0.67%) …. 200/1=1/2%(0.5%) …. 300/1=1/3%(0.33%) …. 400/1=1/4%(0.25%) …. 500/1=1/5%(0.2%) …. 800/1=1/8%(0.125%) …. 1000/1=1/10%(0.1%) …. 2000/1=1/20%(0.05%)I offer you this challenge Letsgetracing and Zoso.
Show me how (assuming level stakes), you can make a profit on your 3/1 bets without winning more than 25% of them?
Without just avoiding the question by saying there is no such thing as value in racing.
If you can, then I will admit there is no such thing as value in racing.
But if you can not then you will have to admit you are wrong and value does exist in racing.I bet you can not, or will not do this because it is impossible.
Value Is EverythingSeagull,
You say only Tony Martin knows if his horse is value, everyone else is guessing.
Tony Martin may be the only one who knows how good his horse is. But, unless Tony Martin has studied the form and knows all the inside information about every other horse in the field, then he too is guessing. Some other trainer may have laid a horse out for the race. How good other peoples horses are has an enormous effect on whether one particular horse is or is not value.Value Is EverythingSeagull
Getting winners does not necessarily put food on the table but getting value certainly does.
As I have said:
Any horse I work out as a 25% chance of winning, I only back if better than 3/1.
Obviously I am expecting to win 25% of my bets that I rate as 25% chances.
Provided I win 25% (or more) of those bets I get value and make a profit.
If I win less than 25% of those bets then I do not make a profit.
(Actually, 22% might just be good enough. If I win 22% of my bets I believe have a 25% chance, but with an average priced winner of better than 7/2. Probably best to ignore this as it might confuse the issue).
Obviously if I win less than 25% of my bets that I rate as 25% chances, then I have not obtained value.
Therefore if a punter gets value he makes a profit and can put food on the table.
If a punter does not obtain value he does not make a profit and can not put food on the table.Assuming level stakes.
Say a punter does not back value horses, instead backing horses he thinks have the best chance of winning. He may well achieve a strike rate of say 33%, but this does not mean he makes a profit. He needs an average priced winner of bigger than 2/1, if he does not achieve this he will not make a profit. Where as a value punter with a strike rate just half as good 16.5%, will make a profit if he achieves an average priced winner of better than 5/1.A value punter will probably achieve a strike rate less than someone who bets on horses he believes have the best chance of winning. But true value punters are far more likely to make an over all profit. What many “best chanceâ€
Value Is EverythingTable Of Odds And Chances
Evens=50% …. 21/20=48.8% …. 11/10=47.6% …. 6/5=45.5% ….5/4=44.4% …. 11/8=42.1% …. 6/4=40% …. 13/8=38.1% …. 7/4=36.4% …. 9/5=35.7% …. 15/8=34.8% …. 2/1=33.3% …. 85/40=32% …. 9/4=30.8% …. 5/2=28.6% …. 11/4=26.7% …. 3/1=25% …. 100/30=23.1% …. 7/2=22.2% …. 4/1=20% …. 9/2=18.2% …. 5/1=16.7% …. 11/2=15.4% …. 6/1=14.3% …. 13/2=13.3% …. 7/1=12.5% …. 15/2=11.7% …. 8/1=11.1% …. 17/2=10 5% …. 9/1=10% …. 10/1=9.1% …. 11/1=8.3% …. 12/1=7.7% …. 13/1=7.1% …. 14/1=6.7% …. 15/1=6.2% …. 16/1=5.9% …. 18/1=5.3% …. 20/1=4.8% …. 22/1=4.3% …. 25/1=3.8% …. 28/1=3.4% …. 33/1=3% …. 40/1=2.4% …. 50/1=2% …. 66/1=1.5% …. 80/1=1.2% …. 100/1=1% …. 132/1=3/4%(0.75%) …. 150/1=2/3%(0.67%) …. 200/1=1/2%(0.5%) …. 300/1=1/3%(0.33%) …. 400/1=1/4%(0.25%) …. 500/1=1/5%(0.2%) …. 800/1=1/8%(0.125%) …. 1000/1=1/10%(0.1%) …. 2000/1=1/20%(0.05%)Value Is EverythingHi Robbie,
Nice to here you are trying to produce 100% books. Or rather, less than 100% books. It is a very good idea to start by using say a 90 or 95% book. Cutting down the number of bets and a bigger margin for error are a good thing. The 1% I mentioned was perhaps an over-simplification of what I do. In most cases, for my MAIN bet I would want 3% or more above my price to beat. If the horse is under 2/1 then better than 2% would usually be needed for even a saver bet. Though a big priced horse, say a 33/1 shot I rate as a 4% chance, would certainly be backed as a saver with just 1% difference (1 ½% for a main bet).
I find it easier to work out a race to 100% and then put in a margin for error, rather than work it out to 90 or 95% straight off. But that is a personal thing.
Specialising in certain races is also good. I have very few bets in poor quality racing. Poor quality racing bores me, other than Fontwell. Just can’t get interested in it, as well as being too difficult. I steer clear of all weather stuff and don’t care much for sprint handicaps. I tend to specialise in races on the round course at Goodwood. The better the quality of racing, the better I seem to do. It seems easier to work out the form, easier to find the victorious 3/1 shots as well as the 20/1 winners. These are also personal preferences, find out what you are good at and stick to it.
I don’t use Raceform, the Timeform perspective is my form book. But have just started reading Dave Nevison’s book and he uses Raceform interactive. It makes it a lot easier if you enjoy studying form.
Don’t really see how you can right off any horse even outsiders, they can effect the result even if they do not win. Any front runner can influence the pace of the race, and so who is going to be suited by how the race is run.Ginge
Value Is EverythingUsed to go racing about twice a week but have cut down recently. I go to Goodwood, Newbury and Salisbury on the flat with an occaisional visit to Ascot, Sandown and Bath. Over jumps, Newbury, Wincanton and Fontwell with an occaisional visit to Ascot, Sandown and Cheltenham. With racecourse and fuel prices on the increase will be cutting down this year. £15 for the quality of racing at Fontwell is too much even with £3 taken off that with the Racegoers Club and am against summer jumping. Have fewer bets on course these days, those I do have are often saver bets.
Most are placed on Betfair the nigh before racing, or with 12 telephone bookmaker accounts.
I don’t bet every day. When I do I usually work out between 3 and 5 races, backing on average 2 or 3 bets in per race.
Though did back 11 horses in last years Grand National, beginning in February when the weights were published. This year have already backed two, Bewleys Berry and Simon.Value Is EverythingAaron
As everyone knows by now I bet on horses I believe are value.
Any horse I think has a 25% chance, will only be backed if available at bigger than 3/1 (at the biggest price I can get above 3/1).
Obviously, I am expecting to win 25% of my bets that I consider have a 25% chance of winning.
Because I have taken prices greater than 3/1 for every horse I believe has a 25% chance, a 25% strike rate on my 25% chances will automatically make a profit. Of course this will only happen if I am a good judge.If there are two, three or more horses available at better prices than my 100% book I will back all of them if more than 1% bigger. It is in my opinion wise to have a margin for error. But it will depend on how much value is there and the recent record of the trainer (in or out of form). If there are three good value horses in one race, I might back the one who is 5% better than my tissue as the main bet. With one who is 3% better half a bet and one 2% better just a saver. But that is just a guide.
Value Is EverythingUh!
Did not expect you to name your sources Zoso just wondered how you got these contacts in so many yards?
Yep, the table is mathematical, did I say it was not? True value is mathematical. If you are saying now ,you do need to win more than 16.67% of your 5/1 bets then you do agree with me. That value (in table of odds and chances terms) is important in making an over all profit. Of course you need winners, one particular 5/1 shot winner or loser means nothing as long as you win more than 16.67% winners at 5/1. (Sorry to others fed up of 16.67% but he still does not get it).
If you have been a professional gambler for 5 years without a form book, you are better than the said investors. They need at least one.If you are so confident of your argument why are you so evasive of any question I ask?
Please, go back on my posts and do me the courtesy of answering all my questions, as I have yours Zoso.Value Is EverythingZoso,
Hmmmm. You are that good Zoso?
Your information is that good, you know everything about every horse in a race not to need a form book. I know there are many ways to get value and make a profit but…
Wow!
How did you get these knowledgeable connections in so many yards?
And to be able to make a profit without winning 16.67% of your 5/1 bets etc. Unbelieveable, I am not worthy.
You are better than Alan Potts, Dave Nevison, Steve Mellish, Eddie Freemantle and John Noakes put together.
Value Is EverythingAaron:
When I bet it does not matter about SP’s. You say 22.8% of 3/1 SP’s win, why is this significant? It is obvious it will be less than 25%, horses thought by the bookies odds compiler to have a 25% chance will be put in at either 100/30 (23.1%) around 2% mark up, or 3%, 7/2 (22.2%) if it is unexposed.
It does not matter if only 22.8% of 3/1 chances win. Each 3/1 shot is an individual, if you believe any 3/1 shot has more than a 25% chance it should be backed. If you are correct enough times then you will make a profit. Of course there have been occaisions when I have not worked the form out properly and make a mistake, everyone makes mistakes. Backing a 3/1 shot that did not have a better than 25% chance. e.g. if I have not taken enough notice of an out of form trainer etc. But these I hope and think are far and few between. So I suppose the answer is yes it is possible but highly unlikely.
Sorry zoso, I am not agreeing with you. I am not saying backing a 3/1 loser is a mistake. If the evidence (form)before the race suggests to me a better than 25% chance, it is a good bet,I am still a bit confused Aaron, so if I still have not answered your question let me know.
Value Is EverythingZoso,
There is no way that a horse with the best chance of winning, BEFORE THE RACE, would be allowed to go off at 18/1. D’Argent was a great bet at 20/1 with his record at the course, on the ground and distance, well handicapped on his best form. However, in his two races prior to Warwick this horse finished 12th of 13 finishers (almost 40 lengths behind the winner), and pulled up on his reappearance. Are you really suggesting it had a better chance than Arnold Lane (3/1fav). Even if D’Argent did get edgy in first time blinkers, raced freely at Newbury and might have needed the race on his reappearance.
Arnold Layne, still improving, well weighted, ran a great race when winning last time over course and distance, on similar going, described by Timeform as “notably fluentâ€Value Is EverythingZoso
You really can not see past the one race can you. Until you can it is pointless trying to explain the table of odds and chances anymore. Had you answered my questions I could have made it easir for you to understand, but you clearly do not have the confidence in your argument to answer them. Your concept of value comes from the Thommo / Lesley Graham school which teaches false value, not the true value from the table of odds and chances. Every professional gambler uses this table, if that does not tell you something nothing will.
From your “spreadsheetâ€Value Is EverythingThats right Zoso, everyone wishes they did not start something when they are proven to be wrong.
Value Is Everything
