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I’ll be in as Edantony. Guess I need to take a view on the Derby and then go from there. Looks a tricky year for sure but that will just make things more interesting as there will be greater diversity between teams.
Well done Kris; a very good total. Also a big thanks to VTC for running the comp and for the regular updates.
I think Kris has one hand on the trophy.
Quick question: I thought you only got one sub? I see that some people made two and was wondering if I missed something? I was busy in Jan and wasn’t checking; am surprised to be so high up.
Would be good if the Tote listed the time the window closes as obviously it would be best to have the Wednesday declarations just to be sure which horses were running in the Brown Advisory.
Let’s say there’s a 16-1 shot you think is a 5 point bet as you make it a 5-2 chance. To win those 5 points you’d only need to bet about 0.3 points which with a point set at 2% of bankroll would be 0.6% of you bank (£3 or £3.25 out of £500 with a point set at £10 as I recommend rounding to the nearest .05% to keep things simple and make sure you don’t miss a price while working out an exact stake).
As I said; the bigger priced horses only require small stakes when your approach is to bet to win points rather than staking in them directly. As above, with a £500 bank I’d have 25p as a min stake on the real long shots and the max on any horse would be £50 (would be a max confidence bet on a horse evens or shorter, such that at evens I’d think the horse should be about 1/4 on). Those would be the only two times that the stake would take precedent over betting to win x number of points.
Essentially it’s very similar to what you proposed, just much simpler. How much value you think there is sets the amount you bet to win, you round the stake to the nearest .05% (a 2k bankroll would round to the nearest pound) and you have a min and max for simplicity on the low end and bankroll management on the high end.
A simpler version is to set a point amount; let’s say £10 for example. Then just bet to win between 1 and 5 points depending on your perceived value; with a max stake of 5 points to mitigate exposure. With the most ‘juice’ usually being on bigger priced horses it pretty much takes care of itself and no complex calculations are required.
The amount you set your point amount at obviously depends on bankroll, risk tolerance and whether or not you bet every perceived edge or account for process risk and build in a buffer.
Personally I would advise setting a point at 2% of bankroll and erring on the side of caution with expected value; such that I tend to want horses that I think are at least 30% overpriced; as in I’d want at least 12s about a horse I thought should be 9s and would consider that a thin edge. The stake in that example would probably just be £1 with a bankroll of £500 and a point set at £10.
With other sports where there are less ‘unknowns’ it’s likely a higher volume approach with a point set at 1% would be more optimal.
Misread ‘until’ as ‘in’ so it seems as though the Ryanair will be the next big target which makes a lot more sense.
Nicholls thinks Stage Star needs to go left handed, mentioned the Denman chase and alluded to prioritizing Aintree by skipping the Ryanair which seems odd.
Possible campaign:
Dubai Classic
Prince of Wales
King GeorgeSend him to America and have him train on the dirt
Pacific Classic (Del Mar)
Breeder’s Cup ClassicBravemansgame
Constitution Hill
El Fabiolo
Facile Vega
Galopin Des Champs
Gerri Colombe
Impaire Et Passe
Jonbon
Protektorat
State ManThey’ll need to buy a lot more horses: https://www.racingpost.com/profile/owner/325088/wathnan-racing/horses
Well done to those who got the Derby and Oaks winners permed though. I had Soul Sister in 2 of my 4 paid lists, but knowing that there are some people/syndicates who put in 100’s of entries I took a chance and omitted Auguste Rodin even though I’m a massive fan of his sire Deep Impact. The effortless athleticism that saw him almost glide across the turf was a thing of beauty: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY_puVhDQgY&ab_channel=WorldHorseRacing
Aftertiming but I was thinking of picking Ace Impact (won the French Derby today) in the TTF after looking through the French Derby runners on Thursday, plus I saw it had been entered for all the big races (Eclipse, Irish Champion, Arc). Not in the list (and too late to request for it to be added), but at least had a very small bet at a boosted 13-1 for interest in the race.
Derby 2nd (beaten half a length) not in the list of 531. If only there had been a declaration stage on Monday or something that the Tote could have used…
