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Well ok fair enough then, I didn’t know that, but all bookies have refunded bets – not sure what’s happening with Betfair. So for the most part, no harm no foul.
Right enough.
Until this incident, I actually had no idea about antepost rules concerning horses who are ineligible for races that they are given quotes for.
I suppose we live and learn.I don’t understand what connections have done wrong here…
He wasn’t entered for the race and they didn’t come out and say that was his aim.
This is akin to bookmakers leaving horses in markets when their futures clearly lie along a different path or if they’re injured.
If punters don’t check, they’ve only got themselves to blame, because bookies are sure as hell not going to help you out.
Oh but they did Zarkava.
Gordon Elliott’s own website has continually stated that Backstage’s whole season was being geared to the Cheltenham Foxhunter. Even last Tuesday they posted about its latest victory and about how Jamie Codd would ride at Cheltenham.
Did they know it was ineligible then? I really hope not.
Personally, I love Elliott – he’s easily my favourite trainer and I will be backing many of his runners at the festival (already on Shadow Catcher for the triumph) but just think they’ve let a few people down by not making this knowledge public sooner.Just watched an interview with Willie Mullins on the At The Races Cheltenham microsite, where he was talking about Sir Des Champs.
He said he’d imagine he’d run in the RSA
Which would make me very happy too, since I backed him for the RSA at the start of the season. My reasoning was that in the conditional hurdle last year he needed every inch of the 20 furlongs, so the extra five furlongs of the RSA chase would be right up his street.
Of course, Gigginstown have others for the race, but who really knows at this stage which horse will go where?
Last year Sir Des Champs was entered up all over the place so I couldn’t take a price about him until his destination was confirmed.
This year I will back him (again) for whatever race he goes for, just like last year.
I love this horse, and I thought he won with a lot in hand the other day, even allowing for the excuses of the Hidden Cyclone camp, and the proximity of Fists of Fury.Likely we will get a new ‘winner’ emerge every week now. Moscow Mannon’s initial win on ground more akin to what he is likely to face at Cheltenham has hardly been franked. It could be that the apparant improvement in his latest two wins is primarily a result of the softer ground. Personally, I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 16/1 to find out.
Certainly don’t take 16s! There is a quote from the trainer saying he is only 50-50 to go to Cheltenham. They are thinking of going hurdling with him now, but of course, may change their minds after another bumper victory.
It is true what you say. This time of year, another bumper horse comes out looking special on an almost daily basis. Formlines are very hard to work out. But I suppose that is the beauty of the bumper: there will be many horses line out at Cheltenham that will have had only one run – you are only ever backing potential.
It has to be remembered that the champion bumper at Punchestown is worth more in prize money than the Cheltenham equivalent so some Irish trainers will wait for Punchestown.
Wait till you are sure that Cheltenham is the target before dipping in. As much as I like Philip Fenton’s Venture Capital, he’s quoted in last week’s Irish Field as saying they may wait for Punchestown.I can’t understand why they didn’t say all of this on Monday or Sunday, whenever it was Shark made comments to the press about the horse. In any case, entries were made on Tuesday at lunchtime, so why take 2 days to tell us!?! It really doesn’t help our game out at all.
I agree with Zarkava. I backed Hidden Cyclone only two days ago on the back of Hanlon’s quotes. Although he intimated that they might wait with the horse, the main thing that I took from his words was that the RSA was very much the target. I took 25s at Hills and was reassured when yesterday Hills cut it to 20s. I know the risk of antepost betting, but if you intend skipping a big festival, why not just come out and say that? I was even thinking of putting Hidden Cyclone into some each-way trebles. Glad I resisted that particular temptation.
OK, I have been trawling the videos looking for some value in this race in the ante post market.
I am heading towards the QDLR camp BUT there has not been much mention on here of
At 33s Bostons Angel looks a massive EW bet, anyone know of any problems the horse has had and why such a long price?
I presume his price is that big because of his style of racing. He is not a horse that oozes class or that races in an exuberant style. Rather, he is very workmanlike and keeps finding more and more. I certainly wouldn’t want to be riding a horse trying to get past him.
I have a lot of respect for Bostons Angel and believe, like yourself, that 31-1 is a huge price. Certainly, he doesn’t deserve to be double the price of Quito given that he has already beaten him before and may well have again at Down Royal had he not unseated.
I’m not saying he is Gold Cup class, just that 33s represents very good e/w value to me.Venture to Cognac… thank you for that info about horses from out of the handicap. Very interesting. When the jumps season is over I might go through all the stats, but right now my head hurts watching and rewatching races concerning this year’s contenders. Studying their form, plus looking at their breeding.
Very sad to hear about One Cool Cookie. I actually had a small bet on him today based mainly on his Becher run and his breeding – sire Old Vic and damsire Montelimar. At least Stan James are non runner no bet, so I don’t lose out.
But still my shortlist is far too long. Maybe others will drop out as well, saving me the problem of whittling down my list.
Fantastic work Gingertipster.
My earlier post was probably not articulated very well, but what I am trying to find out is how are the percentages of wins/places of horses below the 11stone threshold altered if those horses running from out of the handicap are taken out of the statistics?
If a horse is handicapped to carry 8st 12 but has to run off the minimum of 10stone then surely that horse has little or no chance of winning the race. (Bobbyjo excluded).
Those horses have a clear weight disadvantage, much more so than classier horses having to lump 11stone around Aintree.
Pre the Phil Smith era, very many horses were running from out of the handicap and they would be the first off my list of potential winners.
Your analysis is excellent, but would be even better if it were divided thus: those horses carrying 11stone and above; horses weighted from 10stone 13lbs to 10 stone 0 lbs but in the handicap proper; and those horses from out of the handicap.
As an aside, how the hell did Hi Cloy get allotted top weight?
Again, thanks for the excellent post.
P.S. Who was it a few years ago that posted the analysis of the negative influence of Strong Gale in the National? I found that fascinating and would like to revisit those stats.I agree with what you say, Gingertipster, about weights carried especially in relation to the numerical disparity between horses carrying more than or less than 11 stone.
But out of interest, how many of those horses over the last 25 years carrying 10 stone were running from out of the handicap? I remember Lord Gyllene winning from a pound out of the handicap and Bobbyjo winning by fully a stone out.
But how do the percentages compare for horses running below 11 stone off a true mark (i.e from within the handicap proper) and horses running from 11 stone or above? If we weed out horses who were out of the handicap and were therefore running with a clear weight disadvantage (although it didn’t stop at least those two mentioned from winning), how close are the percentages then?
It’s just something that I would find stastically interesting, even though now, with the compressed handicap, it is no longer possible to make the cut from outside the handicap.Oscar Time is interesting, but as you say the value has gone. My concern with him is that in last year’s Irish National he arrived at the final fence full of running but was well beaten by Bluesea Cracker in the end who put a good few lengths between them from the last.
His win in the Paddy Power the previous Christmas was very impressive, again travelling beautifully but that was off a much lower mark. Will he really stay 4.5 miles off his current mark?
As we know, State of Play goes well fresh but even off a lower mark it would take a leap of faith for me to back him. I prefer to look for a horse that is pretty unexposed over marathon trips, rather than one that has had a few goes at winning it.
If he gets in, I may back Arbor Supreme following his run in the Bobbyjo chase recently. Off level weights he ran The Midnight Club very close and now gets over a stone from the favourite.He travelled well till unseating at the chair last year and although that is far too early to have any real idea of how would have done, at a general 20-1 I think he is worth a small each way investment this time around.
But until I know the likely going, I will hold fire on any bets.
I am still open to persuasion on any other horses people put up on here, though.I thought Becauseicouldn’t see actually had surgery on an injury. Certainly put me off backing him. not the sort of preparation a horse would want in the run up to the race, although I don’t think he had too much time off with it.
Sorry, you’re probably right about the op. I just made the assumption that the surgery was the usual breathing related thing.
It would be nice to see someone like Noel Glynn do well mind. I like the idea of an owner/trainer beating the big stables in the world’s greatest race. Will probably end up backing one from the big stables, though, hypocrite that I am!davy russel now reported for becauseicouldn;t see ride, becauseicouldntsee said to be 99percent certain to race
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Becauseicouldntsee is a horse I like but my concern is that he has only had 7 chase runs to date. This is only his second season chasing and I presume second season chasers have a poor record in the National. Also, having had a wind op after his Leopardstown run at Christmas, he hasn’t run for months. I’d prefer the time-honoured hurdle prep run in Feb or early March just to sharpen him up.
So, reluctantly, he’s off my list.
As an aside, how has the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown worked out as a pointer to future Nationals?
Becauseicouldntsee ran a good second to Majestic Concorde this season while Oscar Time hosed up last year. All three guaranteed a place in the National line up.i like becauseicouldntsee. tehy said nina carberry was riding, but just read on sportinglife paul townsend is, if he runs i may back him now
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There are quotes around by Davy Russell to the effect that the minor injury he received recently won’t keep him out of the National where he expexts to ride Becauseicouldntsee.
This is interesting given that Gigginstown’s One Cool Cookie should make the cut. One Cool Cookie was an eyecatching staying on third in this season’s Becher chase, although he never travelled well in that race.
He looked much better in the cross country chase at Cheltenham until ducking out at the cheese wedges.
I’d be a bit interested in both of these horses for Aintree. It will be interesting to see who Russell rides should One Cool Cookie get in. OOC is by Old Vic, out of a Montelimar mare, by the way. Plenty of National winners there.
