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Lanzarote Hurdle –
Trends blown to peices shock! Glenn must have been right all along!
But then again…. there’s always next week.
As promised –
Lanzarote Hurdle – those holding strongest trend credentials are Sharp Rigging, Mr President, Chockdee and Without a Doubt. My advice is to wait until ten minutes before the off and back any of these quartet that are 10/1 or under (at the moment Mr President is only qualifier but that could change).
Anyone interested in seeing the rationale for the above should PM me and I’ll e-mail a copy.
Not if you concentrate only on specific variables which my analysis has proven have a disproportionate effect on the outcome. <br>As discussed earlier the limitations in the sample size is recognised but can be overcome by focusing on trends which are so strong that they allow for a large margin of error.<br>I accept that, from a pure statistics viewpoint, trend analysis has it’s flaws but my point is simply that it does, in practise, provide a useful tool to help predict the likely outcome of certain races.<br>The target may be being painted but so long as the arrow does fall into it with the required frequency then that’s all I need to happen.
Let’s look at trends using a real-life example.
I’ve done an analysis of the last ten years Lanzarote Hurdle results (this year’s renewal being run on Saturday at Kempton) and have established a set of criteria that would have eliminated all but 10 of the runners. Of these 10, 4 won showing a profit against turnover of +280%. The average theoretical chance of these 10 runners, as evaluated by the market before the race, was 17/2 (or 10.52%). Their actual winning chance, as can be established in hindsight by the result, was 6/4 (40%).<br>In other words they were almost 4 times more likely to win than the market had predicted beforehand.<br>Now, come Saturday, there is no guarantee whatsoever that if any horse or horses meet my criteria, they will have a chance 4 times greater than their starting price. However the evidence from past results would tend to suggest that horses who came into the race with similar credentials in the past have performed markedly better than it was generally thought beforehand that they would.<br>Now, a sample of 10 horses is very small and there is every likelihood that the performance of the horses who meet the criteria in the future will not do as well as those from the period our sample has been drawn from. However, the difference between the actual performance and the market assessment of the likely performance of this type of horse is so great that even if those meeting the criteria in the future do half as well as those from the sample (i.e if there are only 2 winners from the next 10) then we would still make a profit, betting to level stakes of £100 per selection, of £900 or 90% profit against turnover. Given that successful pro gamblers often target between 10 and 15% profit against turnover you can see that even with the future selections who meet the criteria doing only half as well as in the past we still have a large margin on our side to accommodate the likelihood that future trends in the race will differ from those prevalent in the past.<br>The proof of the pudding in all this is, of course, in the eating. This type of analysis has proven both successful and profitable for me in the past. Using this approach I put up selections on this site during last year’s Cheltenham Festival (which is ideal for this type of approach, as has been stated by someone else earlier) and they were very profitable. I also use this approach to make selections for the Pricewise Challenge competition where, after only a few races, I am in profit and, from five selections, have had an 11/2 winner, two seconds at 8/1 and 9/1 and two out of the frame. I also use it with some success to help select my horses in the Bob Rolf 4PP comp and in the recent match play comp on the forum.<br>I know from experience that trend analysis can work in the long term. The knowledge that is needed to apply it comes not only from a grasp of statistical analysis (and I’d suggest to anyone backing horses that the more study they do on the laws of probability the better) but also from a knowledge of what kind of trends throw up the most repeatable results and how much the past trend needs to be in your favour before you can approach future races with a degree of confidence that even if your future trend performance falls short of the historical data you are still likely to end up in front. As a rule of thumb, and it is only that, I would not normally consider heavily staking on any trend horse unless historical results indicated the trend had thrown up horses who had at least twice as much chance of winning as the market had predicted beforehand. This rules of thumb does, in my experience, give you enough leeway for the statistical variation to go against you while still leaving a handy profit.<br>I’ll post up the Lanzarote selections on this thread for fun on Saturday but would point out that even if they lose (which the laws of probability state is the likeliest scenario) the relevance of what I’ve said above is not affected!<br>
Glenn – you are partly correct. The sample size is important but statistically sound conclusions can in fact be extrapolated from small sample sizes. I would also point out that while the number races analysed may be 10 the actual sample size depends on the number of runners analysed and this can run into hundreds in some cases so, although you are corect in highlighting that sample size is a factor which may (or indeed may not) affect the soundness of the statistical analysis, the size of the sample does not fundamentally flaw the statistics.<br>Analysis of a ten year sample of a particular race or races will allow you to draw sound statistical conclusions on the data within that sample. It does not, however, enable you to draw significant statistical conclusions on future races. It can only give clues and the stronger the significance, statistically, of a particular trend within the ten year sample the stronger the likelihood of it recurring in future samples of a similar nature although, statistically, we are on weak ground as there are a plethora of factors which can ensure that the ‘next’ ten years are fundamentally different than the previous ten.
In summary – sample size does not automatically flaw the data and prevent significant statistical conclusions from being drawn from it.
Trends are an extremely useful analytical tool, particularly with regard to jumping. <br>ACR1 and tdk are right however in that it is often the application/interpretation of the trend analysis which is at fault rather than the data itself.<br>It is vital, as ACR1 says, to position any data (e.g. no. of 8-y-o winners of a race) within the context (i.e. how many runners of that age were there). <br>To use an example. If I were looking at, say, the likelihood of horses at a specific price range winning a particular race I would analyse the lastten years results by filtering horses within price bands (for argument’s sake <2/1,3,1 to 9/2, 5/1 to 9/1, 10/1 to 24/1 and 25/1 upwards). I would then examine the individual results of each grouping, focusing on the market’s pre-race assessement (i.e. the starting price) against the actual result (the actual percentage wins of the horses in that grouping). Certain races consistently favour short priced horses and this analysis can reveal those and can reveal the edge which has historically been gained by focusing on those horses.<br>Statistically, using trend analysis in this way is flawed however. This is because the sample from which we draw our data is based on the set of results which have already occured. The race we are about to bet on does not form part of the sample we have analysed and what we are doing in effect is using statistical evaluation of a historical sample and making a BIG assuimption that the future sample will closely reflect that historical data set. This is not always the case, as we know, and this is why such analysis is inexact and problematic. <br>As tdk points out individual horses (he uses the example of Rooster Booster) can make a mockery of the trends. The important thing about trends though is that they can generally be reasonably accurate. So, while we may lose out in specific instances we may gain an edge in the long run. Again, as pointed out by tdk, intelligent use of trends where one can spot races where the trend may be upset because of a particular horse or circumstance can help make them even more profitable, although I have found that the trend quite often overcomes my subjective evaluation and I have thrown the baby out with bathwater.<br>To conclude, trends are powerful tools but, as with all types of backfitting, are statistically flawed and should not be used to the exclusion of other analytical tools, teh most important, IMO, being assessment of a horses ability.
I agree that isolating a particular factor which has relevance to a horses chance (e.g. speed figures, trainerform,etc, etc) can provide an edge but also that the edge can sometimes disappear for a variety of reasons (e.g. in the case of speed figures they are much more widely analysed and used these days).
I have,over the years, used a variety of systematic approaches which have concentrated on individual aspects which were not being factored into the price.
Some of these were fairly standard tools such as speed figures and some not so, the relevance of the number of days since a horses last run which was a useful ally before the significance of the so called ‘bounce’ factor was more generally recognised. In all these cases the edge disappeared over time suggesting that the factor was now being allowed for in the price by the bookmakers or, as I now believe was the case the majority of the time, they were no more than statistical anomalies which, as statistical anomalies almost invariably do, reverted to norm (which is why backfitting fiends often come unstuck).
These days I rely on a balanced approach where I am spending a long time analysing each race in fair detail using a host of factors to establish a clear outline of the relative percentage chance each horse has (in other words I make up my own tissue). It is not easy to find an edge however and my betting, apart from trading, is highly selective as a result.
E/W – I’d ask whether, although you are finding big priced winners using speed figures, are you making a long term profit and, if so, what level of profit (in percentage terms against turnover)?
Good stuff !
<br>(Edited by cormack15 at 8:32 pm on Dec. 10, 2004)<br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 8:33 pm on Dec. 10, 2004)
Smile and Elgar’s Cello Concerto today.
Yesterday I had The Boy with the Thorn in his Side on endlessly after hearing it on the excellent Blackpool the other night had reminded me how brilliant it is.
tdk –
Labour have been democratically elected by the people of the country to govern the country on their behalf. It is their responsibility and duty to implement such legislation as they see fit to improve the lot of the people of the country, even if some minorities don’t like it.
In this case it is not only the ‘majority of Labour MP’s’ who want hunting with hounds banned, it is the majority of the populace as well.
Democracy in action and, in this case at least, working for the better good of us all.
Agreed – he is a class act and the prospect of he and Moscow Flyer going head to head with both staying upright is mouth watering.
Sal – I hear what you are saying and, having been brought up in a rural area and spent much of my first twelve years on a farm, understand the pragmatic approach to the harsh realities of life for inhabitants of the animal kingdom. I also accept that the image of the hunt follower as a bloodthirsty despot is a generalisation which is inappropriate.<br>What does not change however is my opinion that those involved in foxhunting are misguided and have no moral foundation upon which to defend their activities. Pretty soon, thankfully, they will have no legal foundation either and I, for one, will be delighted to see those participating in such activity reduced to criminal status.
Yes Spook – drag hunting is the alternative and I am sure that, as in Scotland, there are enough people in England with a desire to continue with the ‘good’ aspects of hunting (i.e.. the social side and the thrill of riding cross-country) without the unwholesome aspects.
Spook – I have never been to a hunt so you are probably correct to assume that I may not be best qualified to comment on the prevailing agenda of those involved. What I was hinting at was that there are a variety of reasons why people attend hunts of which ‘pest control’ is likely to be low on the list of priorities. While I accept that not everyone who goes out hunting is a bloodthirsty maniac dying to smear themeslves in the blood from the mutilated fox I would nevertheless argue that anyone wanting to enjoy the pleasure of riding across country can do so without having to become involved in the ugly and immoral spectacle that comprises the ‘hunt’.
Sal – The trouble with combining the two is that it then becomes something different. Following a group of hounds chasing a fox is NOT the same as a drag hunt and using a pack of hounds to cull foxes in a controlled and humane manner is NOT the same as the barbaric spectacle of a group of Tally-Ho merchants whooping it up in delight and taking pleasure in the fact that they’ve achieved another ‘kill’. Whether hounds are the most effective and/or humane way to control foxes is an extremely debateable point anyhow.
Insomniac – you raise an interesting philosophical point there my friend.
(Edited by cormack15 at 3:04 pm on Sep. 17, 2004)<br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 3:05 pm on Sep. 17, 2004)
Sal – you and I both know that people ‘following the hunt’ are not interested in ‘pest control’ for it’s own sake. They have a different agenda altogether and dressing foxhunting up as merely ‘pest control’ belies a naivety which I know you do not possess.<br>In my opinion, and I know it is only my opinion and I respect the right of others to have differing opinions, anyone getting on a horse to follow a pack of hounds chasing a fox is either mentally incapacitated or plain and simply ignorant.<br>In a hundred years or so humanity will look back and reflect that, while we have enough intelligence at the beginning of the twenty first century to make the most amazing of scientific and technological breakthroughs, we, as a society, are still not possessed of a morality which recognises that obviously cruel and barbaric ‘pastimes’ as foxhunting and bullfighting are relics of a bygone age which should be consigned to history.
(Edited by cormack15 at 1:23 pm on Sep. 17, 2004)<br>
(Edited by cormack15 at 1:24 pm on Sep. 17, 2004)
Foxhunting should be banned along with all sports where pain, suffering and death of the animal are the object of the exericise.<br>Racing does not fall into this category although injury to horses is an inevitable consequence of the sport.<br>Angling, ferreting, hunting with terriers, fox hunting of a variety of kinds, inhumane trapping, etc, all fall into my category of ‘sports’ whose days are numbered.
