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Models, systems, bots, available statistics are a waste of time regarding horse racing.
Show a small gambling trainer these and it will go in one ear and out the other. They think that stuff as nonsense.
He just wants to get a horse ready, entered and declared and all to go well on the day.
To be honest there is an opportunity there to advise many trainers how to back their horse. Some of them are still living in the stone ages.
Now don’t get me wrong..I do love reading form and old sayings like “no bad horses run in Newbury”.
These betting models and systems will clean you out.If you are going to win or lose money win and lose it your way.
Colosus
Hello Tb,
Just got word from a stable for a horse when racing returns in Ireland.
I am told he is ready to win.
They plan to resume early June.
I know for a fact that others are talking out of school in the yard. I told him that.
Please God the horse in question will be 6 or 10 to one.I will watch the entries closely. If I am on then I will post it as early as I see fit.
I am thinking 15 mins to a half an our before the off.
You see its a gambling stable and I don’t want to jump in ahead of them…then they may go the other way on me.ok guys
Colosus
Ginger, I thought you were barking mad and then I found this book online. I would like you to read it in your time and summarise it for me. The author goes into some detail. I was able to download it for free. A few google ads come up so just close them and continue.
Trading Options to Win: Profitable Strategies and Tactics for Any Trader
Trading Options to Win Profitable Strategies and Tactics for Any Trader S. A. JOHNSTON John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Author: S. A. Johnston Stuart Johnston
Its right up your street and can downloaded for free.
This guy, the author S.Johnston tells us how it is….Wiley and Sons are just the publishers
It will take you a week to read it
Ok Ginger ..Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. —Aaron Levenstein
Colosus
ps.This form of knowledge risk can be almost completely eliminated by following this maxim: “When in doubt, find out. When not in doubt, check it out anyway.” Nothing but naivete or laziness can really expose us to knowledge.
I will repost the link above as I tried it myself and didn’t bring me to the book. Maybe copy and paste it in to your URL !
Where therz a will therz away.Sometimes I had to type the following in the URL
https://epdf.pub/trading-options-to-win.htmlThe whole plan must be kept simple.
Bust your nut to win a right few bob before or ever run the 2000 Guineas.
I have pulled many strokes in my day but my dream is to have a tank of bookies money on the “invincible” Pinatubo.Lets say they run, they will form a book mainly based on the BF market. If he hits 6/4 in the shop I am going all in.
They can keep their 72% handicaps when they return.
40 to bleeding 60 handicaps. Class 6’s or the odd Class 7’s races.
Investment funds give you an average 1.5% return per year on your investment.
Pinatubo at 6 to 4 all in..150 % of your money in less than 5 minutes.
He is a machine !I don’t play poker but I understand the meaning of all in.
don’t forget to rub the ducks back when he runs away with the 2000G
Colosus
Lets look to the future
Pinatubo will blow them away in the 2000 Guineas.
I am praying to get 6 to 4 on the day.
I will wait all year to back him.
They may front run him or hold him up.
No matter what happens he will still win.His delayed appearance will surely have strengthened up !
Anybody want to give me 7 to 4 ? No run no bet
I doubt it very much
Colosus
good man dynamite !
I am telling the forum that the bookies don’t let you back a horse the following way instead of each way.
50 on the place
20 on the wintherefore you have to put the twenty on the nose
and 50 on 3 places in the extra markets that they offer you.Don’t complicate things, as you said you have 3 chances of collecting.
Colosus
OK
You never mentioned the word I used, “psychological”.I am gambling over 30 years and I use all my knowledge and race factors to try and get the first winner on the day. Considering the odds and probability and other things. You are more mathematical than me. Always looking for an edge on the bookie.
I am a shop punter, I gamble with a good friend and he knows his onions. Whilst in the shop I get to see markets quicker than any laptop. I know part of gambling is psychological.That and self control. Its us against them.
You have a different style to me.
My friends also have. Some of them haven’t a clue about horses.Where as I know a lot more.
I just don’t like losing my first bet on the day.This should have been Guineas Day. Hopefully we get to see the next superstar soon !
Pinatubo caught my eye when he won his maiden. Interestingly the greenhouse are going 4/5, where Laddys are going 11 to 10.
If they are going no run no bet maybe, if they run he mite hit 5/4 on the day.
Colosus
I know what sense you are making.
I was only using Man Utd as an example.
Of course I mean that you have to be strong no matter what selection you take.
You love value, and my understanding of value is getting the first bet up on the day.
Please read my last thread on “vigorish or overround”.I am out to save the small man. When racing returns I will pass on any word to a small bunch of new friends.
Colosus
Its time punters woke up ! Now they have time at hand to evaluate their mistakes.
1. Always know at any given time what you have in your pocket.
2. Work hard to get your first winner on the day. Its psychological, Get the first one up and sit back and relax. Get the racing post and have a look at the cards for the remainder of the day. Leave the bank card at home.
3. Don’t ever chase on a race or connected markets that you have absolutely no solid opinion on.
4. Back in a big shop that has hardened punters in it. Make sure the staff are friendly and are only delighted to see you win. Throw them the odd fiver when you win large, keep them on board.5. Stay away from little shops and “awkward” staff. You would be amazed at the winners you can find when you are sitting in a large shop in the right company.
6. The big one of all… take it easy on the beer when you are punting. That’s the Molotov cocktail !!!
The drink gives you a confidence that even God cant explain.
Win a few bob then have a few drinks.
If your on day out with friends, do a couple of patents for small money to stop you going bonkers and dropping 2 to 3 hundred and wake up the next day out of pocket. Its what I call EXPENSIVE DRINK ! Do the maths..10 pints for 300 euro…if you drop 300 on the day.7. Make yourself a simple target on weekly racing..lets say 50 euro to a small punter. Look at the 50 as 6 pints of stout and a packet of fags or a snack box on the way home.
8. With these things in mind overtime you will enjoy your few bets..become more self controlled. Get to see big trainers that leave nothing behind when they are on.. the likes of Roger Varian, Mark Prescott, Michael Halford and many others.
There is no better feeling than a punter has is sitting in pub where the bookie is paying for his few pints.
Picking up 50 a day equates to over 15k tax free per year.Being on this site is a great privilege for all of us.
I know many men over the age of 60 that cant use a calculator let alone a pc or a laptop. These are e/w merchants and have no idea about 3 place fixed odds betting in the extra markets.Remember your money is hard earned so when you are punting use logical thinking, read form and listen to those that know what they are talking about, don’t ever be rushed..form your own opinion and act on that.
Over and Out
Colosus
i totally agree !
if I tell you in future that I have word for an 11 to 4 shot in a maiden at Dundalk. Over 7 runners.
And he is 4 to 7 a place extra markets place only.
Surely the bet is 700 on the 3 place at 4 to 7.
And 200 on the win at 11 to 4. To win money you have to go for it when you get the word.You are no fool !
You talk about value. I go after value !
How I go about it is simple.
Lets say Man Utd are playing at home and they are even money.
I try and put them in a double with a 1 to 2 shot that I also fancy.
Suddenly when the 1 to 2 comes in first that leaves me on Man Utd at 2 to 1.
People look at odds on shots as robbery.
They couldn’t be further wrong.
1/3 is 33.33% of your money
2/5 is 40%
4/7 is 56%
4/6 is 66.66%
8/11 is 72%
4/5 is 80%
5/6 is 83 %
And you can be even smarter… don’t do a double on paper.Back the 1 to 2 in a single and reinvest a portion of the winnings then on Man Utd…even leave yourself a lovely free bet on Man Utd
Odds on are odds on for a reason !
Colosus
Good man Ginger
When racing returns I will pass on word for Dundalk.
You can then tell me the correct stake in your mind.
Colosus
Just having a few drinks here and looking at Wikipedia.
Researching the Kelly Criterion or otherwise known as the Kelly Formula.
Apparently Warren Buffett and Bill Gross applied it.
I am a nut job on working out the optimum stake required on a horse. The wager size percentage.In layman terms its as follows
For an even money bet, the Kelly criterion computes the wager size percentage by multiplying the percent chance to win by two, then subtracting one. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win (or 0.7 probability), doubling 0.7 equates 1.4, from which you subtract 1, leaving 0.4 as your optimal wager size: 40% of available funds.
So the optimum stake is 40 % of available funds.
Colosus
yes I hit the submit button and realised that I was replying to the other thread. not to worry !
Jaysus Ginger.. you have me bamboozled !!
Now I understand that there are many configurations how all jockeys could ride a race.
I always thought there were three ways to ride a horse.
Out in front, keep it handy or hold it up.colosus
Good lad Botchy
its quiet simple really
To Long standing each way punters a fiver each way is 5 on the win and 5 on the place. Historically you couldn’t put 10 on the place and 5 on the win.Now the these players… can put 5 on the nose.
And then stick 10 on fixed odds place betting….they must take the fixed place odds before placing the bet in the EXTRA RACING MARKETS.
Nowadays they will do anything to get you into the shop.
I look at it as a little gift.
I just wouldn’t be putting both bets on the one docket !!Imagine a 70 year old man that has backed each way all his life under the house rules walks in a and puts 20 on the nose and then puts 50 on 3 places extra markets.
Thank you Mr.Cognac
If you are a clever man, which I think you are, as you think I am clever lol
I mainly back with the greenhouse, the odd bit with the bluehouse.
The two main bookies in Ireland.
I had a big job with one of them years ago.The extra racing markets is the way to go.
I am on to a trade.. a little risk, yes but that’s mainly down to stake planning.
The greenhouse made 250m pre-tax profits in their last returns.
I just want a nibble of it.
I live 15 mins from Dublin airport and am looking to talk to sincere punters and traders.
I am from a racing background and have no interest in bots, tipping premiums or any schemes. I get word and pass it on to friends.I just love getting it right ! And a bite to eat and a few drinks.
There is going to be mad fun when racing returns.
Hopefully a few strokes pulled and we get on.I will tell you in person and privately that there are some foolish punters out there.
I don’t back with the P.O.P.E
They are a bunch of outdated swindlers.
I saw last year that guys with word hammered a horse at 16/1 SP for a place on the P.O.P.E..he won the race and they paid 6/4 for a place.
Now Cognac the fixed odds place betting in the Extra markets is the way to go for all of us.
I know a good few bookie traders that will be going mad reading this.
Lets make it a level playground.
