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I don’t know for certain Reet, & tbh I don’t really understand enough about the tightening of the track in wet weather? to really comment. (if that’s the thoery?)
I do know Cusoon can produce very fast times over this trip, and has shown it on more than one occasion (which makes a judgement about him more reilable).
The other good horses in yesterdays race had the oppourtunity to run as fast, but could not, the exception maybe being Blue Bajan.
When Cusoon has run fast races, the times have tended to be relatively quicker than other races on the same card. (that’s not an exact science, due to pace of race, quality of horses etc), but it does suggests to me he deserves a great deal credit for being a fast horse.
I would argue that if there was ever a justified case for on course books betting to 125-130%, it would be on a race like this (especially if they were taking each way bets). They must have taken a fair bit for the 2nd/3rd favs to place against the 1/3 fav. I’m guessing like you that it was last minute money from the offices, which sort of weakens my point, but I think it’s still valid.
Even at the final returned SP prices, punters who backed each way at SP, still got a better return on the place portion of their bet than they would have betting at Tote place odds.
This was a real oppourtunity for people in favour of the new SP return system to explain why they need to take account of bookmakers that take each way bets…but the off course firms may have ruined it by shortening the e/w horses up last minute.
You get the feeling that even if they were betting to, say 130%, on course, the off-course firms would have still tried to shorten up the live e/w horses even further, maybe it’s just instinct with them.
If the reported race time of 2m 01.79 is right, Cusoon has knocked another 0.4 seconds off the 10f course record at Lingfield. He did have a really good quality pacemaker in Party Boss today though.
It will be the second time he lowered the course record in a couple of months. I think the record had previously stood for five or six years. That’s a real feat by Cusoon when you consider the amount of races they run over 10f (including decent ones like the Winter Derby & the Churchill Stakes).
Come the Winter Derby itself, he could still be vunerable to the likes of Blue Bajan or Sri Diamond, or his own hold-up style.
I don’t think it was the Hughes ride that was iffy, but the whole race was just unsatisifactory (no pace, messy). Even at the entry stage there was nothing in that would have made the running at a decent pace.
I was hoping to back Cusoon as well. He broke the track record at this distance a month or so back carrying exactly the same weight, Mighty has run well at Lingfield, but not up to that standard yet.
There was an argument to say, as the fastest horse in the race, they should have made the running with him & tested Mighty. I suppose they were scared they would just set up the race for Mighty if they did. Once the tactics were decided, & they decided to hold him up as usual, & then there was predictably no pace, he was going to be in trouble. As soon as Mighty got first run on him off a very slow pace, he wasn’t going to get back. To a lesser extent, the same thing happened to Cusoon last week when Very Wise got first run on him.
He is a bit awkward as well, he developing a habit of hanging when he’s under pressure, & he may be difficult during the race?<br>Imo he’s still worth persevering with, he’s not brilliantly handicapped, but he is fast. He just needs to get into a fast run race, preferably without too many unexposed types in it.
I was really looking forward to Harchibald running in this, & imo he would have won it well. It’s a real disappointment he didn’t make it.
I haven’t warmed to Straw Bear yet, he has a lot of 1’s & 2’s to his name but imo he’s only performed to rating in the 140’s, I‘d be interested if anyone can explain why he has a rating of 154. I don’t think he’s proven at this level yet, & all the professional indicators suggest he is not the best horse in the race. So he either needs to have improved again over the summer, or as dave 22 says, get conditions that suit him & inconvenience the others. Which are possibilities.
I think there are enough other possibilities for him to be too short at 1.9/1. If Desert Quest is a non runner, the reduction factor will make SB almost an even money shot. I’ve laid him at this stage, I may back him back tomorrow if he’s bigger.
I really don’t fancy Desert Quest that much either, so I’m hoping either Noble Request or Arcalis will win this one, they both have the form to.
It wasn’t so much about what he said, which was very predictable, place chances etc. It was more about the signals he was sending out. His father was wonderful at reeling off loads of information about his entries without actually telling you anything you didn’t already know, and avoiding dropping any sort of hints that you could make use of. I thought David was a bit edgy & his tone was not in keeping with a horse that I had 8 or 9lb clear from memory & that had a good record fresh, & won the race last year. He was sort of saying it wasn’t going to win.
On the best fresh discussion, Maybe I have a slightly different take on it. There’s no doubt that he has a good record fresh, but does that mean he is best fresh? The connections have so many options they can prep & aim this type of horse at one race in the entire season. I suppose it’s connections prerogative to choose the time. It seems they have decided against having loads of horses ready for Paddy Power meeting this weekend, again probably because it’s become too obvious that they target it.
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You may be right DJ, but I’m not totally sure. I’ll accept he’s not getting any younger & he will be an 11yo soon, but he was very well handicapped yesterday.
If he is best fresh as well, you would have though that they would have really gone for it with him yeterday. I thought they talked about him & rode him as though they had something else in mind.
Maybe the website (which I have not seen) is different from the magazine.
On Friday it had a double page spread on the Breeders Cup, tipping Araafa, a piece on C.Soumillon & page for each of the Satuday race meetings.
As well as all the other sports stuff…& a lot of advertising!
I was thinking more of the Hennessy for IG!
Interesting comment about the Welsh National AP, I do agree with you, but I think there is also an interesting trend of horses carrying big weights running quite well in the race. Granted they are very vulnerable over the trip & normal heavy ground, but some do have enough inherent class & particularly stamina to run well.
It may not be the case every year, but Cornish Rebel, Chives, Sir Rembrandt have all recently been placed carrying big weights (Sir Rembrandt again & Take a Stand both fell when running decent races as well). These top weights may be lays in the win market, but there may be a way to make money in the place markets with these thorough staying types?
I think this year Sir Rembrandt is a classic example, he’ll carry the weight, go on the ground & see out the trip really well. He may not win but imo is really decent place betting material in the Welsh National.<br>  ÂÂÂ
I think he deserves a bit of credit for yesterday, I thought his jumping was quite good until he got a bit tired, but then so did a few others. Reading between the lines a few of you are still not convinced?
I couldn’t quite work out why they wanted to run him in this race in the first place. If they believe he could be top class, I was thinking it would be better to run him in the big handicaps off a potentially lenient mark. If they have any pretensions of him being a Gold Cup contender, IG has got to be able to run a really big race off a mark of 147. DJ mentioned the Welsh National, but he would need to win or go close in the Hennessy off that mark to have any chance mixing it at GC level.
There seemed a possible danger yesterday of screwing up his handicap mark. If he managed to win the Charlie Hall, fine, but if he ran into a place against some not fully-fit rivals on soft ground he could quite easily be put up 5-10lb-ish for his efforts. In finishing 5th it seems to have worked out OK though. Maybe they are not worried, or maybe they know better & were prepping him for a big handicap run?
I know this is a lot of if’s, but if he did need the run as someone was suggesting, & if his jumping holds together in the hustle of a big handicap, he could be very fairly handicapped.
A horse that has won a couple of northern bumpers, a Thirsk maiden & a 4 runner Ponrefract listed race….is trading at the same price as this years Derby runner up?
Lingfield, I think you are right.
It will be facinating to see how this race is priced up, people & bookmakers are going to have to take a view, & opinions could vary considerably.
Purely on BHB ratings, Dragon Dancer would be priced up very short, but if he were, as you say there will be people queing up to lay him.
How would people price up the front few in this race?
Quote: from robert99 on 11:18 pm on Oct. 15, 2006[br]c15,
I would agree that gambling with a credit card payment (even at normal extortionate rates) is not a good thing for some,
I think I’d be inclined to put it at bit stronger than that.
From a bit of research from the RP website, it looks like Stoute does like putting up McEvoy on a decent 2yo with a winning chance.
Jockeys who have rode 2yo winners for Stoute this season:<br>McEvoy – 6 wins from 10 rides, Sanders – 2 from 3, <br>Hills – 2 from 5, Winston – 2 from 15, Moore – 1 from 11<br> <br>AS DJ indicated with Shorthand earlier, Stoute does seems to stick with the jockey who has ridden a horse previously. Another example today is Mick Kinane riding Jeremy.<br>
