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This looks a very interesting race, & another opportunity to see just how good or bad the classic form is this year.
The race consists of nine older horses of varying ability, some in form, some not. A few are reliable and good enough to hold their own in Listed & G3 races, racing against three 3yos all of whom ran in one or more Classic earlier in the year.
The most facinating contender is probably Dragon Dancer, getting a 7lb WFA allowance and no penalties as he has not managed to win anything. If his handicap mark is accurate he’s a minimum of 8lb clear of everything else in the race, but can he win his first race?
I think it will be a poor reflection on the 3yos if one of them were not able to win this. I always worry about horses like Dragon Dancer, that he‘ll find a way to get beat. I also haven’t quite taken to Short Skirt, she’s classic placed but was a long way behind Alexandrova, and she has to carry a penalty in this, and she can’t seem to beat Rising Cross. Mountain looks quite interesting, he finished behind DD in two Derbies, but may only have a couple of lengths to make up on DD & won well last time.
Of the older ones, Munsef is probably most reliable and has run some good sound races, but he always seems to find one or two that are too good for him on the day. Fracas is taking a big drop in class. The other older horses have all had their moments, but I would really hope one of the 3yos could win this.
Any ideas ?<br>
Goodness knows!<br>Too many unreliable types in the race.<br>Got to be doubts about DD. Many people will want to lay him.
Lingfield, I think you are right.
It will be facinating to see how this race is priced up, people & bookmakers are going to have to take a view, & opinions could vary considerably.
Purely on BHB ratings, Dragon Dancer would be priced up very short, but if he were, as you say there will be people queing up to lay him.
How would people price up the front few in this race?
Quote: from Colin Little on 9:53 pm on Oct. 19, 2006[br]Lingfield, I think you are right.
It will be facinating to see how this race is priced up, people & bookmakers are going to have to take a view, & opinions could vary considerably.
Purely on BHB ratings, Dragon Dancer would be priced up very short, but if he were, as you say there will be people queing up to lay him.
How would people price up the front few in this race?
5/2 DD<br>13/2 Munsef<br>7 Alfie Flits and Short Skirt<br>8 Mountain<br>10 Sunday Symphony<br>12 The Whistling Teal and Orcadian<br>16 Akarem, Foxhaven and Fracas<br>20 Franklins Gardens<br>predicted at sportinglife.com
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With Newbury abandoned today, I would suggest that you go for a horse that likes a little cut in the ground!:cool:
Colin
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Despite all the knockers, Dragon Dancer’s Derby 2nd is the best single piece of form in the race,and by some way.<br> Only an averagely run Derby, with quite a few horses close up, but, Hala Bek apart, the first 7 home all gp1 or gp2 winners giving the form a depth unmatched in most recent renewals.<br> He showed then that he needs a good test at this trip, something which has failed to materialise in any of his subsequent races, and, although unproven on heavy ground, tomorrow’s likely stamina test should be right up his street.
I like Alfie Flits with the cut in the ground.. nice price, plenty of pace and he definitely stays the distance… E/W for me
The going will presumably resemble that on which Orcadian galloped them into the ground in this race two years ago and he wouldn’t be a daft bet at long odds. Of course, he may well refuse to go a yard.
Quote: from reet hard on 9:01 am on Oct. 20, 2006[br] Despite all the knockers, Dragon Dancer’s Derby 2nd is the best single piece of form in the race,and by some way.<br> Only an averagely run Derby, with quite a few horses close up, but, Hala Bek apart, the first 7 home all gp1 or gp2 winners giving the form a depth unmatched in most recent renewals.<br> He showed then that he needs a good test at this trip, something which has failed to materialise in any of his subsequent races, and, although unproven on heavy ground, tomorrow’s likely stamina test should be right up his street.<br>
Only trouble is, it flatters him, as his performances beforehand and after suggest.
Have to agree with DJ.. If you can watch the maiden with Hala Bek… Got absolutely left for dead that day.
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And so he did by Papal Bull in his previous race, both of whom he beat in the Derby!<br>Maybe everything in the Derby ran below form except Dragon Dancer?;)
This is the Scoop6 bonus race (assuming Newbury isn’t abandoned) so please feel free to find the winner :)
I thought Sunday Symphony had a squeak. Seems best fresh, hence poor effort after quick return at Yarmouth last time. Heavy going the obvious concern.
Already done the Lingfield handicaps – Intrepid Jack and Descartes are nailed on! They’ll probably switch the bonus race to the 2.42 at Steepledowns if Newbury is abandoned. General consenus among the conspiracy theorists was that the Newbury meeting could have gone ahead today but they wanted to give Saturday’s card every chance. My current shortlist comprises of Mountain, Short Skirt and Sunday Symphony. So will probably go for Dragon Dancer. Going for a pint now to stop myself fretting about it.
A horse that has won a couple of northern bumpers, a Thirsk maiden & a 4 runner Ponrefract listed race….is trading at the same price as this years Derby runner up?
I thought for a while that the old rogue , Orcadian, had shaken off the field but he got very tired inside the final furlong and caught by Short Skirt.<br>Her next engagement is stated as being at the Dec. sales which may say a lot .<br>Not the greatest group race.
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