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Thanks for those AP, interesting view taken by the BHB handicappers and interesting Topspeed has upped the rating from an original 164 to 168
Bin reading cuttings and AoB was expressing concerns about the hard season, but also saying DT seemed fine to him
Strange that he would state he seems fine leading up to race, but horse is reported as looking like a horse in foal
Maybe horse said to his connections after Arc
" I’m feeling fine and i’m raring to go and kick some US butt now boss"
Gareth – you are clutching a straws now. Forget the semantics – it was an appalling piece of campaigning from Coolmore running him in the BC and HK.
End of story.
TDK, i agree running a horse that looks in foal is crackers and connections should be ashamed , but there was nothing wrong in running DT at Monmouth, just like nothing wrong with running GW in Classic
Connections walked course according Mark Johnston and he reported that they took the view the ground was Good to Soft and DT takes his chance
They got their going estimate wrong and i don’t think they should be slagged off for that m8
TDK
Did horse that won KG look like it had enough, did horse that won Arc look like it had enough?
Did horse that ran at Monmouth look like it had enough?
He seemed to try his bollox off to me, but just couldn’t hack it in that ground, just like he couldn’t hack it at Donny as a 2yo
Scorpion similar route – failure
Ouija board similar route – successful
For some horses and connections it’s works out fine, some it don’t and if your not in it, you ain’t got any chance
Better to have crack, than be thinking about what could have been imo
reet
If HLB is 8lb or more ahead of the handicapper he shouldn’t need mistakes from opposition to win Class 2 handicaps should he???
Magic Sky
A case of HOO LA BALOO jumping the final fence in this handicap chase and Magic Sky failing to do so cleanly when looking as if he would probably have won
Lennon
A cracking finish to a decent little handicap, but not form to take too literally as the complexion of the race changed dramatically at the final fence, where front-running Lennon, who was three or four lengths clear and with the race sewn up, went left yet again and made a mistake that cost him the race
The official handicapper has HLB’s measure imo and i’m not even sure why he’s put him up to 151 as both these races and his overall form probably show he had his measure at 145
Though comments by connections are interesting, I treat them like i would any stable info and that is to pinch this from one Alan Potts
The opinions of jockeys and trainers can be dismissed immediately
Though i may not agree with it, just like you may not agree with mine, i sooner take on board the race analysis of reet hard , David Johnson, Drone, Prufrock, Flash, FoF etc, etc
HLB may have had plenty of runs but is only a 6yo and has been showing generally progressive form in his seven runs since last April, so I see no reason to doubt he’s improved again. That said I believe both VPU and MG ran a fair way below form (former over-rated anyway, latter a poor box-traveller and over too short a trip, as it transpired) and TM continued his progression, though the improvement is nothing to get carried away about and I wouldn’t be in the slightest bit interested in ~3.0 for the CC at this early stage: My Way De Solzen at ~11.0 with-a-run, fill yer boots!
For what it’s worth my – as usual conservative – estimate for yesterday’s race and the discrepancy from OR would be:
TM 162+ +4
VPU 159 -10
MG 155 -11
HLB 155 +4As others have mentioned hardly a vintage crop of two-milers, based on the above anyway.
Drone
Though i think HLB may be flattered by his position, a 4lb improvement is not beyond the realms of possibility and i think your assessment is probably a fair one
No disrespect but I think that’s a terrible comparison.
Kauto Star put up an Arkle type performance last year. He had VPE in serious trouble by the pond fence and could have beaten him much further.
I would think it perfectly possible that VPE put up a faster time this year than he did last year in the race, Didn’t Kauto beat him much further? yet this young horse has still bettered him. Plus my eyes tell me he is simply a classier animal.
Anyway IMO times should only be used from the 2nd last to the winning post and within 24 hours to compare if no change in going……it gives you amore accurate lime on how fast a horse can finish……..the rest just isn’t worth taking into consideration…..unless something special has knocked 5 to 10 seconds of a course record……..races are run way too differently to be be using times to judge perforamances……a slow pace can knock a lot of seconds of the time of a race
No probs DJ and I can see where your coming from David, it’s the difference in ground that i’m trying to point out
I’m just not convinced we saw VPE run to anywhere near his best, nor am i convinced we saw Monets run anywhere near his best, nor am i convinced a 22 run Chaser can improve almost a stone
I like winner, he’s an exciting prospect, but the above worries me a tad, thats all
Although both were given as officially soft, the Time based ground was given as Soft in 2006 and Heavy in 2007
The race time this year is 2.57 seconds slower that last year
Although i could be wrong and only time will tell either way, these added to the position of Hoo La Baloo has me thinking that yesterdays race is not what it first seems
It troubles me, if you know what i mean and I would probably give VPE another chance because of this
As I said in the original post Charlie, I have never seen a horse contest a group 1 that looked as fat as Dylan did today, so no, I don’t think we see things like this "over here"
Fair comment TDK, it was just a general question
Although there is probably a difference in fitness level between say a horse that looks in foal and one that is say 60/70/80 % fit. I personally don’t see much difference
Anyway, thats my take and others will no doubt see it different
I don’t think I have ever seen a horse contest a Group 1 race in a worse state than Dylan Thomas this morning.
Admittedly I only saw the horse via the ATR pictures, but the track commentators quite rightly commented that “If you didn’t know, you would think Dylan Thomas was a mare in foal” as he was walking around the paddock.
I can see why Coolmore chanced their arm in the Breeders Cup, but after that sorry display, surely there could be no justification for sending him to Hong Kong?
What a disgraceful way to treat a horse who has given them so much this season.
Nowt wrong with going to Japan or Hong Kong after Breeders imo TDK, however, running a horse that is nowhere near fit enough to do itself justice is just not cricket, but don’t that happen over here too???
I backed TW fto and although i knew he would probably come on for that and he was a threat today, i thought the improvement needed to beat VPE would probably be beyond him
I’d probably take VPE to turn it around under better conditions as i think his mark is about right
The most likely occurance for me is that Twist Magic has obviously improved a bit, Hoo La Baloo has probably run up to form, Monet’s Garden below his best as he needs further, Voy Por not quite at his best though equally flattered by his OR.
If your analysis is correct DJ
Twist Magic has improved only around 3lb
VPE has run 11lb below his OR, (you could be correct regarding him though)
Monets has run 13lb below his OR
Hoo La to his mark
Ashley Brook has run 29lb below his ORConclusion : the ground ( form on very soft in France according to form book) looks have played a very big part in him winning the race and he could be very opposable in a rematch under better conditions
David
I get going as heavy also and agree with you regarding Hoo La Baloo
reet
It’s weird one, if you take VPE and Monets as running near/to their OR’s then it suggests Twist Magic has improved a stone and Hoo la has improved 11lb
This also surprises me a tad
Trainer Alan King said: “No excuses. He’s done everything right, just been beaten by a better horse on the day.
Sprint
Exotics on
Absolute Champion
Sacred Kingdom
Miss AndrettiVase
The Welsh Poet NAP
Mile
Darjina
Cup
Viva Pacata nb
Nobody find Hoo La Baloo’s run and finishing position a tad suspect??
He looked like he was gonna finish 3rd until run out of that position on run in by Monets and It’s hard to envisage a 22 run Chaser improving much.on his OR
Monets 14lb his superior and VPE 19lb
Winner did it nicely, but Hoo La’s position has me thinking VPE and Monets were not seen at anywhere near their best today
Thoughts???
