[carlisle]

hi everyone

I find speed ratings very useful for jumps & flat racing.<br>Any horse that has acheived a 20+ StopWatch figure is<br>enter into my database. Then I use this data to generate<br>my own computerised speed rating, based on the Solidus<br>method.

In my opinion speed ratings have to be viewed in the<br>context they were acheived.  For example

160    20fur  ascot  soft(+0.90)  hcpB145   £18K  +5Len  easily etc.

Speed is only one part of the puzzle though, you need a<br>rounded approach to probability………..timeconsuming!!!

I will post some speed ratings if anyone is interested.

from "not the finished article"<br>carlisle<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 10:09 am on Feb. 18, 2002)

[carlisle]

Hi Paul

thanks for your posting.  It looks interesting.<br>Although it’s off my main consideration at the moment.<br>Breeding and trends will be useful at the final fine<br>tuning stage.

I will checkout the website.  Cheers.

bye4nowfrom<br>carlisle

"secret of success is constancy to purpose"

[carlisle]

Hi Paul

I am not the finished article yet……  I know what I want<br>to do, but doing it is another matter.  It takes me about<br>three hours to do a 12 runner Hcp.  I want to automate<br>the whole process one day.

A comprehensive database is needed to feed my analysis<br>programs. Thus rating the eight individual factors<br>previously mentioned.  I have produced some<br>simple formulaes for most of the ratings. RecentPerf for<br>example uses  the last 3 postmark(plus bestnotlast),<br>last 3 len+/-, last comment and days since run, topmark<br>being 20/20.

Raceform data export seems the best way to get the raw data I need.  This will be a longterm project anyone interested?…………………..

Being able to operate in an efficient, robust & measured<br>way opens up alot of useful possibility, when it comes<br>to spotting value prices.  Studying the outputs would be<br>so much more enjoyable…….(quicker)!

bye4now<br>from<br>james_carlisle@yahoo.com

(Edited by carlisle at 8:47 am on Feb. 17, 2002)<br>

(Edited by carlisle at 8:51 am on Feb. 17, 2002)

[carlisle]

Hi

I am all for looking at form from a scientific approach.<br>Wanting to be able to quantify and measure the important factors.

Dealing with ratings and number data builds a sense<br>of meaning and gives the analysis a direction & ultimate<br>purpose.   ie  an estimated probability figure<br>                    (which is converted into price)

Although I do not like the idea of a single rating that<br>cannot be viewed alongside the component ratings<br>that make up the overall figure….   In this way problem<br>areas can be sighted,  such as poor Distance Rating for<br>example.

My significant factors are:  (with max scores)

Going =30, Distance =25, Course =23, Speed=20<br>RecentForm =20, Ability =25, Trainer =15, Jockey =10.

Added together equals Overall rating. (168)

If this rings any bells, not alarm ones, let me know.<br>Because I need help, god knows I do……………..

Making a book is the only serious way forward.

bye4nowfrom<br>carlisle<br> <br>

(Edited by carlisle at 9:14 pm on Feb. 8, 2002)

[carlisle]

Hi everyone

I consider estimating a horses price to be vital, otherwise you don’t know what you are buying.  However it’s difficult and time consuming to make a book. I am currently creating a database of results, that will feed analysis programs that<br>I am writing.  Any help would be welcome.

In a nutshell the essence of this discussion is……..<br>"I fancy this 3-1 shot, but has it really got a >25% chance?"

bye4nowfrom<br>carlisle

(Edited by carlisle at 9:49 pm on Feb. 4, 2002)

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