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Judge, I’m surprised you think Foundation is on the small side, he looks a big lad to me.
Recorder, Tashweeq and Very Talented are others to throw into the mix as far as the racing post trophy is concerned, it’s a bit early to be writing it off as a betting contest since we have no idea what the final declarations might be. My worry with Foundation is that he’s a bit on the small side; possibly a concern that he won’t develop much from two till three.
I just looked at the video of that Royal lodge again and I’m not convinced Foundation had much left in the locker, eased or not, the second was gaining rapidly at the finish and I think Foundation might struggle to fend him off if they met again, I also think this Deauville strikes me as having the more scope of the two. Two smart colts though.
I don’t think there’s a stand out derby horse yet. The Beresford today should tell us more, True Solitaire is rock solid on the form line with Sanus Per Aqqam/ Deauville/ Johannes Vermeer so I’ve backed him, although Stellar mass is interesting at a big price.
Of course you have to respect O’Brien’s record in the game although I notice all of his three are wearing headgear, I must admit I have an in-built dislike of any horse that is sporting any kind of apparatus
Steve, do you see him as a miler or a 12f horse next season. Lydia made the comment that she thought he was a miler at most. I’m guessing her opinion is based on his pedigree.
I was very impressed with his performance today.
Steve, I agree, it was a very good performance today and he looks a top class prospect.
I do have a big ‘but’ though…that pronounced action of his could restrict how he is campaigned.
What do you think?
Video for foundation haydock youtube▶ 3:10
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laCS7BmfrR0<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>IBRacing wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>LD73 wrote:</div>
I liked the way Snow Sky quickened off the turn and left them for dead in the Hardwick – if there is no other likely front runner in the field on the day, I could see him repeating those same tactics.Assuming they are able to get those early fractions right, again he could have a 3 or 4L lead turning in and it is very hard to give that much of a start and then try to quicken past a horse that isn’t going to be stopping (remember SK has won over 14F).
I also feel that Ascot’s much shorter home straight of 2.5F (compared to York’s 5F and Epsom and Sandown’s 3.5F) on quick ground is not going to play to GH strenghts as he takes a while to hit full flight and it is highly unlikely that he will be able to out stay SK especially if he has used his turn of foot to bridge the gap.
Still think GH should swerve the KG altogether and be given a break until the Juddmonte because if they go the KG route and are still looking at the Arc as his swansong, he would need a prep race (Prix Neil maybe although it didn’t work out to well for Nashwan who had previously won 2000g, Derby, Eclipse & KG) and then you stil have the ground issue at Longchamp – I can’t see them ever wanting to go 12F with him on soft or heavy ground in either race.
Said it before but my personal preference would be go straight to the Juddmonte, then the Irish Champion and maybe finish his career in the Champion Stakes (usually run at a strong pace and I don’t think going 10F on likely soft ground would be an issue for connections) – the Arc would only be an option if the ground was good to soft or quicker.
I think you are making far too much of Ascot’s short straight. When was the last time a horse near to Golden Horns class was beaten at Ascot due to the straight?
I completely disagree with you regarding the colt skipping Ascot – wrong move. The race is perfect for him. If he missed the race and ran in the Juddmonte he would be running over ten furlongs. It took Golden Horn till the last half furlong up Sandown’s uphill finish to really shake the Grey Gatsby off. A horse like Free Eagle or Gleneagles over ten furlongs would be very tough test. At Ascot, if he gets there fit and well, he’ll more than likely win pretty comfortably.
Can’t say I remember a 3yr old of GH class (Nathaniel at the time wasn’t) actually running in KG in recent years as they tend to go Juddmonte/Irish Champion route.
You have also highlighted my worries yourself when stating ‘it took Golden Horn till the last half furlong up Sandown’s uphill finish to really shake the Grey Gatsby off’. Ascot’s straight is 1F shorter and it may well be that the race will not be run to suit a hold up horse & I am pretty certain that over 12F he will be held up – granted, he is the most likely winner but we all know that tactical races don’t always see the best horse winning.
Funny how before the Derby most said he was very much a 10F horse with a big ‘if’ over whether he would last over 12F – he reminds me some what of Sea The Stars who did win twice over 12F but in my eyes his best two runs came over 10F in Juddmonte (broke course record) & Irish Champion (when he was tag teamed by the O’Brien battalions).
I feel that a strongly run 10F is GH optimum conditions and I would rather see him in a superclash with the likes of FE/Gleneagles/Time Test et al at York but that is just me.
How about the mighty 3 year old filly last year
Providing Golden Horn runs well on Saturday I think he’ll go to the King George next.
Owner has said he won’t run as a 4 year old and he’s not as likely to get decent ground at Longchamp in October as he is at Ascot in July.
Might want to go for an all age 12 furlong group 1 that is eminently winnable while they can.
I hope he runs.
Epicuris ran to a rating of 112 as a two year old on heavy ground. His breeding and action point to him wanting a sound surface and Walter Swinburn eludes to this in the RP this evening saying he floats across the ground.
So given 12 furlongs and decent ground he could leave that 112 well behind…that is subject to him entering the stalls of course
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Others include Sinndar, Oath, High Rise, Shaamit, Lammtarra and Benny the Dip. All rated less than 119 by the Racing Post prior to their Derby run.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
This stat is incorrect. Pour Moi, Workforce and Ruler of the World were all rated less than 119 by the Racing Post coming into the Derby.
Shamardal was a miler who won over 10 furlongs thanks to a very fine tactical ride from Frankie.
Zawraq will get very little help at Epsom from his sire over the final 4 furlongs.
This is my first post but have had the pleasure of reading your opinions for a long time.
I too have been looking for news of Migwar having had a bit on at fancy prices on Betfair – I liked the look of his run back in March and feel he could step up on better ground and being by Sea the Stars out of a sister of Rule of Law who won the Leger would be suited by the Derby trip.
I can find no news of him since he was supplemented for our Derby on 9th April and looking at French entries he missed a race on the 4th April with a vets certificate so I think he will not be coming – there have been crazy prices on Betfair also.
He has recently been entered for the Arc though.Unfortunately, he picked up a minor injury and will miss the race. This was reported in the Racing Post Pricewise Derby special about 10 days ago.
Grey Lion has a blood disorder.Interesting that France Galop are showing that Grey Lion has been given an entry in the Sandown Classic Trial. How they have this information before the Racing Post or Sporting Life…I dunno, but if correct it could easily be surmised as a declaration of intent.
Soll is a big lad. Saw him in the flesh at Newbury when he ran in the Hennessy and he towered over the field.
What a fantastic race in prospect, and a real puzzle.
Here is my take on it, for what it;s worth.
Long Run – Reet Hard, I disagree with you. I don’t think he will be 100% tomorrow. His main aims will surely be the King George and the Gold Cup. I can’t believe they won’t have left a bit to work on with Kempton in mind.
This might sound crazy but I’m not 100% certain about him. He hit a lot of fences at Cheltenham in March and won’t always get away with that. Don’t think the King George he won was the best ever either.
Pressure now really on Sam Waley Cohen now he is King – I think he’s gonna feel it.
That said, he is form pick but think he might get beaten for fitness and just have this feeling that riding an odds on Gold Cup winner might not be as much fun (and as easy) as it was last season.
Diamond Harry – great record fresh. Take Denman out of last season’s Hennessey and it was like a conditions race(most ran off 10 stone). Won it really well. However, he is really fragile and has numerous injuries, because of that I won’t be risking my money hoping he is the same horse as he was last year. Could do with more cut in the ground as well, I think.
Kauto Star – all time great but in decline. Because of that I can’t have him.
Weird Al – suspect this fella is best fresh. Can’t forget his post race condition first time up last year at Carlisle when he was in a terrible state and wasn’t the same horse for the rest of the season. Jason Maguire prefers to go to Ascot, if he really fancied him no way would he desert him, not for anything, not in a race of this calibre.
Time For Rupert – my pick. Was so impressive in his first two runs last season at Cheltenham (first over 2.5 miles). Was a high class staying hurdler (winning at Aintree – similar flat track) and 2nd to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle, 11 lengths back to the third. Genuine excuses for last two defeats, firstly in the RSA when he never travelled but only finished 6 lengths behind the winner and yet post race was reported by the vet to have coughed and bled significantly.
Last time he travelled really well and jumped like a stag. Fitness did him in the end but the bugger kept trying all the way to the line.
Will be 100% this time and I expect him to reverse form with Weird Al.
He has loads of class and an attitude to die for. At 9s I had to have a very decent punt on him. I think he’ll front run and make it a right stamina test.
I see Corals & Hills have him at 50s to win tomorrow and also the Gold Cup – will have a crack at that as well.
1st Time For Rupert
2nd Long Run
3rd Diamond Harry
4th Kauto Star
5th Weird Al
6th Pure Faith
