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Actually the more i think about your betting proposition re sizing Europe im not sure i do see the logic, and i certainly dont mean any disrespect to you.
But you have made abundantly clear that you can not see under any circumstances Sprinter being beaten so why risk a stake on Sizing when he has a few question marks over him to get a 5/4 free bet, but risk loosing your stake if you cant trade. If Sizing wins today it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world for HDB to announce to the waiting media that he sees Sizings future over longer trips and if he gets turned over like i believe he has a couple of times in recent years you’ll also struggle to trade your bet. So not sure its worth the fuss especially when youve made it clear that the chance of a pay day on this bet will only be if Sprinter fails to line up in the Champion Chase?
Watching brief for me, sizing is one of my fav horses but I believe they will step him up this year and if he is beaten first time up then might struggle to get out of bet. But see the logic in it and wish u luck
Interesting to see Sizing Europe declared at Gowran Park tomorrow over 2m 4f if he wins and sees out the distance id expect them to start the annual Sizing Europe Gold Cup dream again
Personally speaking at the moment I wouldn’t be tempted by the 14/1 odds currently available for the World Hurdle for Zarkandar, his odds on betfair are 23 to back and 75 to lay and I think that this reflects much more accurately the likelihood of him lining up in the race and winning it.
I think that you mean Zarkandar? If you do then he is certainly going to be targeted at 2 miles and his target is the Champion Hurdle. Who knows what will happen if he gets beat and the plan doesnt materialise. But certainly the intended target is the Champion Hurdle and I get the impression that if PFN gets a clear run with this horse he thinks that he will be a player.
The more horses that Sprinter Sacre scares off the easier it will be for me to collect at least my place part off the 66/1 I’m holding on Sanctuaire!!!! And at this stage I’d be rather happy if Sprinter Sacre fulfilled your profercy as long as Sanctuaire was in the top 3. Without going over old ground I think we are in for a proper race, and can’t wait for the tingle creek and then champ chase and if sprinter wins the more power to him, but I wudnt go counting your money just yet!!
The problem with trying to win a small fortune this time round is that you’ll have to risk one as well! And there’s a lot of water to pass under the bridge between now and March
I think you could be right about sizing europe, although every year HDB seems intent on stepping him up in trip believing he could be a Gold Cup horse, the form book tells a different story though. I wouldn’t be surprised if he did this again and if he some how wins first time out this year then he might take a different path to the 2 mile chase route he has taken previously. But there really doesn’t appear to be a serious challenge from Ireland at present as I’m kind of ruling Big Zeb out really, as despite being a great horse his best days appear to be behind him now and again might look at other targets upped in trip perhaps.
Finnians Rainbow looks certain to step up for reasons you have stated. I think that Riverside Theatre will be aimed at the Gold Cup this year rightly or wrongly though.
On Sanctuaire, even if he gets beat in the Tingle Creek (I accept that this is the most likely outcome however no where near the certainty you are predicting, and can not wait to watch the race), PFN will put him away till the festival and run him in the Champ Chase, of that I’m absolutely sure, probably citing that he is much better on good ground in the spring or some other excuse blah blah blah. If Sanctuaire is fit ill be gob smacked if he doesn’t take his place in the starting line up for the Champ Chase. And for the record I think that Sprinter will face his toughest challenge yet (apart from getting battered by Al Ferof in the Supreme) against Sanctuaire and it will be an amazing spectacle I just hope they get to the race fit and well so we can all enjoy seeing a true champion and possibly legend at the peak of their powers.
Told you the 10/1 Sanctuaire wouldnt last long lol!!!!!
9/1 best priced now, its not my money I promise you.As I understand it the plan is to run Sanctuaire in the Tingle Creek then one other race prior to the Queen Mother, as PN believes he is a better horse fresh and doesn’t take his races too well. From a Sanctuaire "fans" point of view it’s reassuring that PN at last seems to know how to get the best out of him at last.
If Sanctuaire is soundly beaten in the Tingle Creek then I’m not convinced that PN Wud automatically step him up in trip as you described, in fact I think that wud be the least likely option, although I accept that it wud be a slight concern. Much more likely is the possibility of sizing Europe being stepped up this year, in fact do we know if he is even going to start over 2 miles this year, I’d be surprised if he was. Beaten by Finians last march who id agree is no sprinter sacre, surely he will be destined for a different target? And he now is at last chance saloon in his career to land the big one
And just a quick note, one of those walk overs (Taunton) was over 4 seconds quicker than the Racing Post standard time, ran unchallenged and wasnt pushed and as it was his first run over fences and on good to soft ground, thats pretty good in my book certainly adds some weight to a horses ability (although you cant always trust the rails haven’t been moved in!!!)
"The race itself was hardly laced with superstars, the from is at least questionable."
Ok, but like you I also believe that French Opera is no Superstar but he is still rated 160 so by no means a mug, but the facts are Sprinter Sacre beat him by 6L in receipt of 5lbs. The same none "superstar" was annihilated by Sanctuaire by 23 lengths off levels.
You make a valid point that Somersby and others could have been over the top by the race and you could be right. As ive mentioned in a previous post its interesting the handicapper took the lowest possible view of the form, as i would suggest you and possibly others have. But I would take a slightly different view and say that Dan Breen (who I believe Sanctuaire was rated through) may have run to personal best and I would be interested if he ran in a handicap under the right conditions as I believe he could have run to a mark nearer to 153.
I love your bravado "To be blunt he wouldn’t blow wind up Sprinter Sacre’s backside" and I’m a firm believer that if you’ve got an opinion then make sure its a strong one and you certainly have one.
Which ever way you look at Sprinter Sacre he is making Sanctuaire a real betting opportunity Im only disappointed that he seems to be attracting a lot of attention in the press this last week and the 12/1 is long gone, and I’d imagine the 10/1 will be disappearing very shorty too.
Keeping my fingers firmly crossed that both get to Cheltenham safely next March so we can see a great race.
Hope the breathing operation holds up on Sprinter Sacre if your taking the 5/4 now, they don’t always last forever.
I can accept that Sprinter Sacre is a worthy fav and do agree that he could frighten off most runners and there could be as few as 6 runners lined up on the day. Which is why Sanctuaire makes plenty of sense each way.
For what its worth I think that Al ferof without his blunder in last years Arkle would have given him plenty to think about, you just need to go back to his Supreme win to see where all his best work came, as he absolutely stormed up the hill. The horse finds plenty and it would have been fascinating to see if they would have duelled up the hill together. People may say that Al ferof was going a stride to quick and thats why he blundered coz he was out his comfort zone and they could be right, but Im more inclined to put it down a bad mistake at the wrong time. But Sanctuire has got to be good value when looking at the form book at 10/1ew, and to ignore his achievements could prove to be expensive. As there are few collateral form lines that would suggest he is the equal of Sprinter Sacre. Cant wait for the Tingle Creek!!!!!!i hope your right with your thoughts re grands crus above as one bookmaker has layed me a £10 ew double to win the King george 8/1 and to win the Gold Cup at 20/1. I was surprised that they did accepted the bet as a straight double, in fact it remains to be seen whether they will in fact pay out on it as it would to me at least appear to be a related bet, but fingers crossed.
