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Can’t get a clear picture on this…can anyone down Sandown way let me know what the weather is like at the moment, and what the ground is likely to be?

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This is a very strong ‘trends’ race which if you follow this season takes out the first 3 or 4 in the betting!

For instance Portrait King/HTV are too young rather annoyingly as i like Portrait King.

Merigo on the other hand is too old although if the ground deteriorates i always go for the older horses!

Horses must have won at least as far as 3m over chases and won a Cl 1 or class 2 race!

Taking all the above into consideration I have (as previously stated) backed

I will cover the above with a RFC on the day with Merigo and Portrait King.

Be lucky all who play

I can’t fault you on the trends assessment GDC, since 2000 the 8-10 age group have dominated. Only twice has the winner come from outwith that group…Gingembre (7yrs) in 2001 and Hello Bud (11yrs) in 2009. In the 90s, four out of the ten winners came from outside the 8-10 group, although I accept that as a trend it’s hardly current.

It probably takes something that’s pretty decent to win outwith that group, I had originally gone for Lie Forrit (8yrs) and I fancied him a lot, but the cough has done for him. Henry the Viking certainly comes in the unexposed bracket, he has only had 6 races, finished 2nd in his first race, won the next four, and a very good second at the festival. It’s the festival race that swayed me that he may be better than your average horse for the Scottish. It’s not often you see a horse running on again at the end of 4 miles and yet that is what he did. I thought the front 2 had got away, but he was pegging them back all the way to the line grabbing second place on the line. He managed to do that with an amateur on his back, so with Ruby I’m pretty sure he can get a bit extra out of him. I hope he can buck the age trend, or at least my wallet does.

I’m also having a couple of quid e/w on Mac Aeda. Malcolm Jefferson had a great festival, and poor Ritchie McLernon deserves a break after his National heartbreak. Maybe the racing gods will take pity om him…..or have I read too many fairy stories. Either way, that’s my two against the field.

I’m off for the weekend now…..hope to hear some of us had a good Saturday at Ayr when I get back.

Best of luck.

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Well no point in crying over spilt milk I suppose, Lie Forrit is out so lets see if I can rejig this a little.

I do like Portrait King, he will definitely get the trip and has looked a good horse in his last two races. The only thing that worries me is that prior to his win at Punchestown in February, you have to go back over 2 years to find his last win. He then went on and, as Hurdygurdyman pointed out, he won the Eider very well and looked an improving horse winning those races. What concerns me is that he won his Punchestown race off 113, and since his Eider win he runs off 140. A rise of 27lbs in two months is a lot to carry, I just wonder if is up to it. If he is still improving he may well be, but I’m not convinced.

I had liked Harry the Viking, one thing that put me off was that I did not think Junior would run and therefore the weights would go up by 9lbs. However, he is still in there and that means HTV runs off 10st 11, instead of the 11st 6lbs I was anticipating. He has gone up 6lbs for his good running on second in the Amateurs NH race at the festival. This will be the first time Ruby has ridden him, and that has to be worth 6lbs in my book.

I know it’s not very original, I’m not normally a favourites man, but I can’t get away from him being the most solid looking bet after LIE Forrit’s defection. I’m inclined to take the 6-1 on offer, I don’t think it will be a drifter on the day.

VTC…passing the buck for Hurdygurdyman to give me a hug in my hour of need…..shame on you

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lie forrit out due to the cough bug going around stables, and he coughing this mornng

vf

Absolutely gutted, the trainer said the ground had come just right and thought he was well handicapped….everything looked good until he started coughing this morning.

Not a lot more I can say……I need a hug

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George Charlton must be due an award for the worst trainer in the country. In his last 18 races he’s run Knockara Beau in a races won by a list of horses that are like the who’s who of racing including Simonsig, Big Buck’s, Burton Port, Synchronised, Midnight Chase, Weird Al, Grand Crus etc etc.

His one win in over 2 years came in desperate ground in a hurdle race at Carlisle but that didn’t stop Charlton wasting more time and money by sending him for the Blue Riband of racing at Cheltenham, the Gold Cup.

To make things worse he has Jan Faltejsek riding for him who even falls out of bed at the last when dreaming about riding his next winner.

Plenty reasons there not to back him but a long distance staying chase could be exactly what the horse needs.

He comes here of 147 and if I didn’t know better I might even think this has been the long term plan for him. No doubt if he wins Charlton will say it was Faltejsek is a worry but he may just make this number 2 for the season.

Portrait King could well be the best handicapped horse in the race he won the Eider Chace of 131 and he’s in here off 131 stuffed I can work that one out but with Denis O’Reagan taking the mount again I fancy he’ll be right there at the finish.

Portrait King and Knockara Beau for me 2 ew bets and a RFC

Hi hurdygurdyman

I’m not about to defend George Charlton as a trainer, I don’t know enough about him. From what I see he has not many horses in training (directoryofturf shows 19NH) and I suspect Knockara Beau is his "stable star" for lack of a better phrase. I suppose you can only shoot the bullets you have.

It depends what the owners are looking for in relation to their horse. I would have to say if I were the owner of Knockara Beau, I wouldn’t be too unhappy. He has run 7 times in the last year and you are right that he has been highly tried, or over tried if you like, but during that time he finished placed 3 times, finishing second behind Simonsig, and 3rd in the Argento Chase. He also, as you mentioned, finished 6th in the Gold Cup.

Now it’s like I said, it depends on what the owners want, and as it happens, during that period, he won over £31,000 in prize money.

I suspect you are a bit like myself, and would like to have a couple of winners to cheer on, but from a money point of view it has given the owners no headaches with trainers fees etc, which would be well covered by the prize money.

You could be right that the longer distance is what he wants, he was running on at the end of the Argento at 3m 2f, but I’m not convinced that it is.

Portrait King broke my heart last time out. I had banged on in here about Posh Bird’s chance in the Eider, and I had a good little wager on her. Up until 50 yards from the post, I thought she was all over the winner, but as you know, Portrait King got up under a great ride from Denis O’Regan. He will get the trip, no doubt about that and must have a squeek. Not sure where you picked up about the weights, he did run off 131 in the Eider, but the handicapper has slapped on 9lbs for that and he runs off 140 in the Scottish National.

Best of luck on Saturday.

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Dear old Ballyfitz; perhaps I shall have to, especially after ignoring In Compliance on Saturday. There is a little group of ageing staying chasers that have morphed into one; In Compliance, Vic Venturi, Abbeybraney [of lor, he’s running on Saturday as well] and a few others. I wish I could just have sort of general bet on all of them at the start of the season, an insurance policy in case of ‘old favourite turning back the years and winning big race’. All it needs is for Character Building to re emerge from somewhere….

He’s a good sort Moe, and I have a bit of a soft spot for him too. Only thing is he hasn’t won in a pretty long time, over 2 1/2 years, but he ran a decent race in the Midlands National last time, not looking like winning, but kind of plodded on for a good third.
He was running of a mark of 127 and carrying 10st 4lbs, which gave him a fair chance. He runs three pounds better off at 124 this time, but that still puts him 8lbs out of the handicap, which is asking a lot. The Scottish is a race that has had a few win from out of the handicap….Joes Edge in 2005 from 3lbs out, Hot Weld in 2007 from 5lbs wrong and Iris De Balme in 2008 from 7lbs out of the handicap, so it can be done.

As I mentioned earlier on this thread, I do fancy Lie Forrit quite a bit. I mentioned taking the 14s still available at that time, that’s well gone…best price now 12s, and as low as 10s in some places.

Best of luck whatever you plump for.

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I think Lie Forrit has an excellent chance. He has a nice weight at 10st 6lbs, has won on the course and has won on ground ranging from good to heavy, although mostly on soft.

His last two runs, 2nd in both, over 2m 6f and 3m1f, he was still full of running, and running on well at the end of the race. I think this is a progressive 8yr old, having only run 15 times in all, winning 7 and being 2nd 4 times. That’s a pretty impressive strike rate. I think the 4m will bring out more in him and at 14-1 (Ladbrokes) he is overpriced. I don’t expect him to be 14s come Saturday.

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I’ve been banging on about Seabass for weeks, and going by the way of the gamble that’s going on, I’m not alone.

I thought I had taken the best price (20-1) as the odds dropped to 16s and 14s before Ruby declined him and they went back out to 20-1.

I’d like to know what has changed that has brought this deluge of money to bring him back to 10-1 (9s in places).

Is it professional money, is it Joe public betting on a first time woman jockey winner…..doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, although I’m happier with my 20s than I was yesterday.

Anyone?

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Had another look at this after my pick withdrew, and I agree with Venture to Cognac, I think Deal Done looks the right type for this and has got a nice weight at 10st 4lbs.

He was given a nice prep for this at Navan last month, over a distance obviously too short for him, but that should have him spot on.

Well done VTC taking the 40s, that’s gone but I’m happy taking 33s.

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That’s a really good assessment VTC. She is a good jockey, and I think she is capable of riding a very good race so I havn’t given up on Seabass wining this yet.

I agree with you too that it is a bit of a blow Ruby won’t be onboard, and I would feel a little more comfortable if a top jock that had been round the National before took the reins.

However, if it’s katie, then it’s Katie and that’s that I suppose.
Maybe after she is the first woman to win the National, we will be saying "of course, I never had any doubts"

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Looks like the cut in Seabass’s price (11-1 for 14-1) this morning with Paddy Power, was an anticipation that Ruby would choose to ride him. He is back out to 14-1 with them.

I think Katie will probably get the ride going by comments I have been reading this morning. She has won twice on him, so I will just have to get my positive head back on, seeing as my money is already down.

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Oh well, not quite the news I was hoping to hear this morning…Ruby riding On His Own.

I had even wondered if there had been a whisper last night that Ruby was going to ride Seabass, as Paddy Power cut him from 14-1 to 11-1, but obviously that’s not the reason behind the cut.

I suppose it’s fair enough, Ruby rides for Nicholls and Mullins, so if he’s asked to pick the best of their horses, then that’s that.

Ruby has ridden Seabass most, with his sister Katie riding a couple of times. I think Katie is a fair horsewoman, but if I’m brutally honest, I’d rather have one of the big boys on him for a race like the National.

I wonder when the jockey matter will be resolved by Ted Walsh.

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Hi Gingertipster

I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.

I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.

If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.

I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.

Best of luck Ginger

Big G,
It’s a much greater stamina test on soft/heavy .

When West End Rocker won the Becher Chase over 3m2f on heavy ground, his time per furlong was slower than Ballabriggs took to win the Grand National on Good. Therefore it is probable it took more stamina to win the 3m2f event on heavy, than the 4m4f race on good. (As long as it wasn’t just because of a very slow Becher pace; which considering winning distances in November were 22 lengths, with 32 back to third; seems doubtful)
It is my belief a 4m4f Grand National run on soft/heavy ground will roughly require as much stamina as a 5m Grand National on good ground. Do you believe Seabass would stay 5 miles on good ground? I don’t.

When the ground is soft/heavy at short distances it favours Seabass, because it brings his stamina in to play. At 4m4f I believe he’ll require a (relative) test of speed (good-soft at worst) at 4m4f to stay. Although of course there’s also the chance he won’t act on good ground at any distance.

Hi again Ginger

Again I’m not disagreeing with your reasoning, it will take a good deal more stamina on heavy ground over a long distance.

All I am saying is that the ground won’t bother him, and my opinion, based on my observations of the way the horse runs and particularly how he is running at the end of a race, makes me think that he looks like a horse that will benefit from further. Of course it is uncharted territory he is going into, and I may well be wrong, he may blow up after 3 1/2 miles, but I don’t think he will.

If he was proven over that distance, I doubt he would still be on offer at 16-1….I did mention earlier to grab the 20-1 before it disappeared. I don’t think knowing if he manages 5 miles on good is a fair comment, I couldn’t say I know any that handle 5m on good, we would be into uncharted territory again.

I may be putting 2 and 2 together and making 5, but next Saturday will determine if I need to put my rosy tinted specs away

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I would have fancied On The Fringe, but I see he is missing from a few in the bookies markets so maybe he’s not expected to run. Pity, as I think this would be right up his street.

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Hi Gingertipster

I liked your summery on Seabass, it was very fair.

I fancy Seabass a lot, as I’ve said a few times on this thread. The one thing I would take issue with is that you think if it is soft or heavy he won’t stay. I accept there is an arguement that he is untested at this distance and might not stay, personally I feel that he will, but as I said in an earlier post, that’s just my gut feeling having watched his races. However I don’t think it being soft or heavy is an issue, he loves those conditions.

If he doesn’t stay, then he doesn’t stay, but I don’t think it will be because of his favoured heavy ground. I think Ted Walsh would have a good idea if he stays, I think he in a realistic down to earth kind of guy . I know Papillon was some time ago, but he has been there and done it.

I would so love for Ruby to ride him, but I don’t know what the chances of that are.

Best of luck Ginger

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10 day weather forecast indicates rain every day from next Sunday, up to and including Saturday 14th, in the Liverpool area.

They may be wrong, but if it is correct, it brings in a few heavy ground specialists. It certainly won’t inconvenience Seabass, who I’m very keen on anyway, and at much bigger odds Le Beau Bai if it gets very wet.

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Paddy Brennan to ride Vic Venturi if he gets in. More reasons to get excited about him.

O’Regan is on board Black Apalachi once more, which i must confess surprises me as Giles Cross would have been my first guess over his preferred ride.

Do you reckon Giles Cross will even run if the ground comes up good to soft?

Hi Peter

Personally I don’t think that Giles Cross will line up in the National. I don’t think he will get the ground he needs, and I think Victor Dartnall is only being slightly tempted because he is 6lbs well in with the handicapper. To be honest, I’m not confident about him getting the trip. The furthest he has won is 3m4f, although he was second over 3m6 in the Welsh national and second in the Eider over 4m1f, but he was pretty much out on his feet at the end. I think he will head for the Irish national.

I think that is why O’Regan has plumped for Black Apalachi. I’ve always thought Black Apalachi looked a National type, and I bet him three years ago when he unseated when going well, and two years ago when he ran a cracker to be second. I can’t bring myself to bet him this year, despite his good return run at Fairyhouse in February, after being off for two years. Good horse as he is, I don’t think a 13 year old will win this. The last one to manage that was Sergeant Murphy in 1923.

Vic Ventura’s run at Leopardstown in February, didn’t look like the Vic ventura of old to me. He had run, and won twice, in a couple of NH Open races in January, which didn’t ammount to more than egg and spoon races, but they should have had him fit enough. If he can bounce back to some of his 2011 and 2010 form, he would have a squeek, but it’s too much of an ask for me to have any confidence.

I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast earlier on here with Seabass. I said I didn’t think the 20s would last…..best priced at 16s now.

Best of luck peter, this looks tougher than usual this year,with lots of very fancied runners. Lets hope we can bag one.

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