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Taxi for Julio…… Well that is that as they say. Blinkrs most certainly did nothing for him, except perhaps making him sulk more than he has all season. I don’t think I’ve seen a more disinterested performance from a horse all season.
The vibes were bad from the trainer’s interview a few minutes before the race, and with just cause I wish he had been a bit more vocal in the lead up to the big day. I don’t think Julio ever got out of the last three and whatever has happened to this horse, his interest in racing has definitely gone and I don’t see it coming back now.
Anyway,onwards and upwards with the jumps season concluded. I am a jumps man,but I’ll just have to get my head round these namby pamby flat divas before the real horses reappear in the autumn. Ba humbug.
It doesn’ look a very original choice after Rich and Batt’s posts, but i’v been following Hold on Julio for some time now. I backed him at last year,s festival as if he was the certainty of the meeting, I was so impressed with him prior to the meeting I thought he looked an absolute machine, with a change of pace at the end of his races that very few horses show. I was so gutted when he didn’t look the same horse and he has been expensive to follow since.
However, I still, maybe foolishly, think there is a big race in this horse. If he were to come back to anything like his best, I think he would walk this. That takes a bit of a leap of faith, but there is hope, not least because King’s horses seem in rude health and there’s no doubting that Sandown has brought out the best of him in the past. 12/1 I think is a pretty good e/w at 5 places with PP.
So he gets his last chance from me, if he doesn’t get his act together this time I’m giving Findus a call.
That’s a fair assessment BigG and good pointer to the PP offer. But can I ask you, having followed the horse closely over the past year or more, what are your thoughts on the first time application of blinkers by King?
Hi Batt
It’s hard to say with blinkers, he certainly has not been travelling with the ease he used to. Perhaps the blinkers will put his focus back on his racing rather than having to be cajoled along, as he has needed of late.
If it has a positive effect he has to have a great chance, but it’s still an unknown so difficult to be over confident.
I can’t for the life of me see him being out of the first five, and with any improvement he has to have a mega chance of winning.
Good luck to him and his faithfull followers.It doesn’ look a very original choice after Rich and Batt’s posts, but i’v been following Hold on Julio for some time now. I backed him at last year,s festival as if he was the certainty of the meeting, I was so impressed with him prior to the meeting I thought he looked an absolute machine, with a change of pace at the end of his races that very few horses show. I was so gutted when he didn’t look the same horse and he has been expensive to follow since.
However, I still, maybe foolishly, think there is a big race in this horse. If he were to come back to anything like his best, I think he would walk this. That takes a bit of a leap of faith, but there is hope, not least because King’s horses seem in rude health and there’s no doubting that Sandown has brought out the best of him in the past. 12/1 I think is a pretty good e/w at 5 places with PP.
So he gets his last chance from me, if he doesn’t get his act together this time I’m giving Findus a call.
Anyone feeling Lion Na Bearnai for this? Still listed in the race and at 25/1 that looks big if he’s fit?
Latest article I could find about him running or not:
Jim, it looks like the trainer is going to run him going by a report today in the RP …… Gibney said: "The horse scoped cleanly and is all set to travel. Robbie McNamara is going to ride him as 11st 11lb is a lot of weight and his regular partner Andrew Thornton is too light for that sort of weight.
"It’s a big ask for a horse who has run only once since his Irish National win, but we’re travelling and hoping for the best."I’m not going to put you off him, he was a good winner of the Irish national, but like the trainer says, he has had a hike in the weights since then and it is a lot to carry.
Best of luck
Think the ground’s gone against him. Am wondering about Silver by Nature if he has recovered from his bout of colic. It’s a big ask and I’m not expecting him to run but he’s pretty classy and he’s got his ground [also connections that very much want this race]. Thankfully placed my bet on Receccas Choice yesterday [still in the race thus far and guaranteed a run].
Hi Moe
I can see where you are coming from with Rebeccas Choice, a good showing in the Midlands national and will be suited by the ground and distance. I hope you got one of the bigger prices, I see it’s into 20-1.When you said "think the grounds gone against him", were you talking about Problema Tic ?. He has won on soft and was running well enough in the Becher Chase at Aintree last year on heavy ground before he came down at the 17th. I’m not saying we wouldn’t maybe like better ground but I think he will handle it ok.
Best of luck with your punt
I was just a bit concerned that Neptune Equester was 27th on the list, but if it was 30 then no problem. I see today that with some withdrawals he is 20 so thankfully he is an intended runner as my money is already nailed to the mast.
I see that Corals have pushed out Problema Tic to 33-1, I’ve kind of followed him, and done ok although he disappoints sometimes. I’m inclined to have an e/w at 33-1 in case this is his time to come good, if he runs he won’t be anywhere near as big as that.
Does anyone know the maximum number of horses permitted to partake in the race, I can’t quite seem to find an answer to that one.
Neptune Equestor is my idea of a decent bet. He ran in this race as an 8yr old in 2011 and tired a bit towards the finish. He did’nt exactly set the heather on fire after that, but I thought he looked the likely sort for this and the fact that Brian Ellison has him aimed at the Scottish this year, rather than at Aintree where he got round last year and jumped well, shows he fancies him for it. 10 years is a good age for marathon races, and he is running off 129, 13lbs less than two years ago. He goes there in very decent form having won over 2m 6f last time out at Wetherby, running on strongly at the finish.
16-1 is a decent price and that is where my dosh is going.Good luck guys
That’s a possibility Rob, but i hope she squeezes in to the lincoln where she should be just about bottom weight. Fingers crossed
Definitely a strange one this. I can understand why bets would be void with the race being re-opened, and yet I have just checked with Boylesports on the position of my bet on Gladys gal on 20th March. I’m told that my bet still stands. I’m happy enough for that to be the case, as my odds are bigger than they are now, but I’m not sure she will make the cut now as the race has been re-opened and she is 26th on the runners list. I’m not sure what the maximum field is, I think about 20 or 22.
I think that veiled has a really good chance in the first (2.00)He was a bit disappointing last time at Ascot, but he did get a bit squeezed with a couple to go, and after his chance of winning had gone Eddie Ahern was easy on him.
He has won over 2m 6f on good at Cheltenham, so no problem with the distance here. He has been given a good break before this. 16-1 looks a very big price to me.
Good luck guys
Are you serious? The draw is of little consequence, particularly in this race. There are too many other factors involved and if you’re going on the draw to influence you, you maybe should be ignoring the race if you’re letting a factor of such minor influence lead you.
I can understand why you might think that the draw makes little difference in a 2m2f race. But I have to say I am with Gingertipster on this one.
In a 2m + race it normally would not make a difference, but this is one race where it very much has been the case that the draw has influence on the outcome. The last 3 winners of the race came from stalls 1, 5 and 4. That was with 17, 17 and 16 runners in the field.
I fancied Torminator, who was drawn 2 and can front run or be up with the pace. Unfortunately The app jockey on him, Paul Pickard, managed to get him plumb last on the inside rail and pretty much remained there as the field stretched away in front, till the jockey realised it wasn’t going to be his day and pretty much downed tools.
I’m not moaning out of my pocket, I accept that that is racing and sometimes the good luck swings with you. I’d rather be a lucky punter than simply a good judge of horses (which of course I am
)May the God’s of racing smile on us all, and when they don’t, just get the shovel ready for the roses.
I think this has Torminator’s name written all over it.
He won the Northumberland Plate as a 4yr old last year running on strongly at the finish. That was over 2m (good to soft). He ran a further 4 times, his finishing figures being 8,2,5 and 4th. On the face of it that might not look overly encouraging, but on the first 3 of those races,two being over 1m6f and 1 being over 1m 5f, he was running on better than anything else at the finish. His last race he looked like he had had a long season.
I think he screams out for 2m +, and that is exactly what he has this time. Paul Pickard knows the horse very well and is worth having on him with his 3lb claim.
The draw, even though this is over 2m2f, has proved to be important in the past, and with him being drawn 2 that is a bonus.
You can still get 11s with a couple of bookies (as low as 8s with some).
Any VC account holders out there, will be like me getting a free bet in this, if they placed bets in both the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. The offer was to mach the average of the 2 bets as a free bet in the Chester Cup. Good old Victor…..I hope it costs him money
A truly unfathomable race. Mohammed Al Zarooni has stated that both his fillies want top of the ground, so that is fair enough warning for me. Maybe was the top 2yo and has form on all types of going, whether anything can improve past her this early in the season is questionable as Steve Mellish said she took the eye most of all the O’Brien Guineas contenders Camelot included. Moonstone Magic has made huge strides in short time and must enter calculations but dead ground is not like soft or heavy so it may not present as much advantage to her. Mashoora has solid form and the French have a much better record in the 1000 than the 2000.
Maybe is a worthy favourite but I haven’t got any real fancy for the race.
Hello again my old friend, lets hope we fair better than yesterday’s Guineas version.
To be fair, I don’t think Al Zaroomi has said they want top of the ground, more that he doesn’t know how they will fair on softer than they have raced on…..
"I can’t say yes and I can’t say no whether they can handle the ground. When Lyric of Light won her maiden the ground was on the softish side, although that still didn’t tell me whether she needs it like that. I hope she goes on it but with Discourse I cannot tell"
It’s a risk but if Discourse handles it she must have a cracking chance, particularly as she probably needs more than a mile now, the soft ground should help her get home better than some. I would imagine her prime aim is the Oaks, but I’m taking my chance.
I’ve also stuck a couple of bob e/w way on Starscope at 33s. She won her maiden over 7f really well as a 2yr old, that was after missing the break and running green into the bargain. Her only other race was in the Nell Gwyn a couple of weeks back. She was out the back, and although finishing only 4th, she was running on better than anything at the death. She was beaten less than 1 length, again over 7f. I think the extra distance is what she is crying out for. She should not be 33-1.
Best of luck
I’m like you Bosranic, I narrowly missed out on the 2000Gns with Boomerang Bob (by 12 places
).So who am I going to put my curse on today…..it’s Discourse at 11s. Abandon ship all that have bet him now that I have put the mark of Cain on him.
Eclipse First
Having just posted my piece on the race, I now see you have beaten me (whilst I was typing) to unearthing Boomerang Bob. I’m glad I’ve met a like minded spirit, I was expecting a bit of flack for a so called no hoper. I hope we are both smiling come 3.20.
I don’t really know where to start. I’m not convinced that Camelot is ready to play his A game, I think he will come right later, so he’s not for me.
Abtaal has beaten French Fifteen, French Fifteen has beaten Abtaal, and both have beaten Hermival. I don’t think there is a star among any of the French horses, not for me.
I’m not convinced Power needs 1m, especially where it is at all testing. His entries, as has been pointed out, suggest he may be best at shorter, not for me.
Born to Sea, if he weren’t related to See the Stars, would not be 10-1, not on what he has shown. He could be very good, but he’s not shown enough ….he’s not for me.
Trumpet Major is a straight forward decent horse, but he still doesn’t look anything special. He won the Craven well, but I don’t think that was a particularly strong race. He is honest and if he were a bigger price than 10-1 I would strongly be considering an E/W, so he’s not for me.
Top Offer is a major headache to me, his maiden win looked top notch, but many a 2 year old looks special early and then doesn’t progress. He really could be anything, and as I don’t think there is anything that stands out like a sore thumb, I am a little tempted with the 14-1 on offer. Roger Charlton knows his onions, and I don’t think he would throw him in without him showing serious progress at home. The trouble is, it is at home and he lacks the experience of a hard fought serious race. I’m not going to take him for that reason, although I could feel very silly after the race….not for me.
Having not been convinced by any at the top half of the market, my strategy is to unearth a decent e/w as I suspect there will be a couple of relatively unfancied horses, if not shocks in the shake up.
Both Casper Netcher and Bronterre are decent horses who have shown some very decent form. Casper won the Gimcrack and the Mill Reef very well last year, and is obviously in decent form coming off the back of win in the Greenham.
Bronterre won his first 2 races well, before finishing 4th in the Dewhurst behind Parish hall. He would have been a lot closer if he had not raced alone and then having joined the pack 2 furlongs out, he carried himself off to the right again. He came out in the Greeham, and was 3rd to Bronterre (at odds on) looking like he maybe needed the race.
Both these horses have shown enough to make them appealing at 28-1 and 33-1.
Which brings me to my eventual choice for a "surprise" e/w. I’m prepared to be shot down here for nominating a horse that has been beaten in his last 4 races. Boomerang Bob won his maiden then followed up with four seconds. But I don’t think that is as bad as it seems on face value. He ran a good running on second in the Norfolk Stakes, and again a good running on second in the Prix Du Bois at Chantilly last year (beaten by Family One who franked that form with a win in the Prix Robert Papin, and was second in the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville)
Boomerang Bob comes out this year in the Greenham, and splits Casper Netcher and Bronterre, running a decent race and staying on. Probably just needing the race, as were possibly the other two. But the strange thing, well it’s strange to me, is that whilst Casper Netcher and Bronterre are 28-1 and 33-1, Boomerang Bob is on offer at 100-1.
It’s clear I don’t think this is a very good 2000 Gns, and with very decent consistent form, I think that Boomerang Bob at 100-1 has to be worth an e/w squeak. (50-1 if you want to take the first 4 with Skybet)
Best of luck guys.
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