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Formath, Gingertipster and others, I think that the value has often gone once a horse has shortened too much in the on-course market.
But what might well work is to ascertain which trainers’ steamers do the business more often than not,and when not,are placed more often than not. That list of gambling trainers, or trainers whose judgement is accurate enough to allow gambling owners and/or gambling connections to profit by betting ‘smart money’ at the track because the trainer has previously shown that he knows his game well, should be worth compiling.
The betting strategy would be to bet on the first shortening of the odds on-course whenever such a trainer has runners, especially if the odds hadn’t lengthened first at the track after the opening show. Thereby some value is to be had.
Using the search facility on Sporting Life’s site,input the names of individual trainers,and you’ll see the steamers of that trainer,if any,and how they fared.Then you can compile your list.
Incidentally,it might be worth mentioning that I read on another reputable site that the % of owners whose horses backed blindly run-after-run showing profits to level stakes is much higher than that of trainers.That is another angle that might be worth pursuing as it can give us an edge over the bookmakers.But as far as I know there is not a complete list of every owner on the net.Thanks for the welcome, Dave.
I reckon you’re right.
The holy grail is still beyond our reach. But we must not give up our quest to find it!Dave,
Interesting that Del had tried it a couple of years ago. Over that period there has been a marked reversal in the profitability of Massey’s top-rated short-price favourites .
Of course, the problem may be that bookmakers’ odds for Del’s system qualifiers aren’t high enough these days to maintain the system’s profitability,assuming that the strike rate has remained steady.But using Betfair might make enough difference to put it into the black!The only way to determine this would be to run a trial.
"a high % of short-priced losing favourites that have run on artificial surfaces".
It depends what one considers to be short-priced. In my eyes,short-priced is < odds of 7/4. Note that I said short-priced,not very short-priced. I think you’re implying that laying short-priced favs running on the all-weather may be profitable.That may be so, I just don’t know.
But what I do know is that once you’ve discounted some short-priced horses that in the long run will cause you, the punter to lose money,which horses do you bet instead in order to make money?The problem with the all-weather is that the low ability of many of the runners means that any one of them in a low-grade race can winIn addition, many such animals are inconsistent too.What’s more, it’s seldom that you can get value odds about a seemingly bad horse because the bookies are afraid of being taken to the cleaners.
Furthermore, weak betting markets at all-weather courses may be an indication that many punters have identified the lower strike rate of favourites running on the all-weather compared to those running on turf
But I’m not an expert by any means.I could well be wrong!It’s indeed very bad news that Del is no longer with us. Certainly he will always be remembered for his 5/4 system.
I’d previously attempted to unearth the system rules by trawling the net, but without total success.
I knew that he had been banned from here. But despite sometimes losing his temper too easily, one would have to say that he was a genuine fellow who loved horse-racing.
If the rules of his system were known by the bookies, it would surely have a detrimental effect on the odds available for certain already well-fancied runners.But I don’t think there are too many punters that would blindly follow his system because of the short prices of many of the runners identified by it.
I wonder if anyone on TRF is using his system. Someone using it a few years ago told me that all-weather runners don’t qualify because there is a high % of short-priced losing favourites that have run on artificial surfaces.Certainly this is verified by Adrian Massey’s custom reports.
Is there any system that can beat the book? Personally I am doubtful there is .
