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In the mid-70’s when personal computers were not widely used by racing fans I received info from a team of ‘computer experts’ claimng to have solved the problem of supporting trainers. I have toyed with the principles involved off and over the years with limited success (too many bets) and this is just another of my many visits.
THE MAIN PRINCIPLE IS TO SUPPORT RUNNERS WHEN THEY SHORTEN BEFORE THE OFF BELOW THE OPENING SHOW, EVEN IF THEY HAVE BEEN LONGER INBETWEEN.
Just for interest I have list some successful trainers at Cheltenham today that are currently showing some form:
2.20 Pacha D’Oudaires (Nicholls/Walsh), Thunder Rock (O’Nell/McCoy)
2.50 Oh Crick (King/Thornton), Poquelin (Nicholls/Walsh)
3.25 Ouzbeck (King/Thornton), Private Bee (Hobbs/Johnson), Fier Normand (O’Neill/McCoy)
4.00 Simondium (Nicholls/Walsh)
5.10 Mister Gloss (Hobbs/Johnson), Big Fella Thanks (Nicholls/Walsh)
5.45 According To Dick (Hobbs/Johnson), Bobby On The Beat (Nicholls/Walsh), Paisley Cross (O’Neill/McCoy)If anyone is interested they are welcome to PM me for the original info from around 1975.
Can’t see this working Formath, it seems as though you will usually be taking poor value. After those who "know their stuff" have got on.
After something has been well backed bookmakers have to take their prospective losses in to account. Therefore they have to reduce the price of such horses even more. To discourage others from backing it they offer very short odds, shorter than the value price.
Which, if I understand right this system seems to take.
Good luck anyway.
Mark
Value Is EverythingFormath, Gingertipster and others, I think that the value has often gone once a horse has shortened too much in the on-course market.
But what might well work is to ascertain which trainers’ steamers do the business more often than not,and when not,are placed more often than not. That list of gambling trainers, or trainers whose judgement is accurate enough to allow gambling owners and/or gambling connections to profit by betting ‘smart money’ at the track because the trainer has previously shown that he knows his game well, should be worth compiling.
The betting strategy would be to bet on the first shortening of the odds on-course whenever such a trainer has runners, especially if the odds hadn’t lengthened first at the track after the opening show. Thereby some value is to be had.
Using the search facility on Sporting Life’s site,input the names of individual trainers,and you’ll see the steamers of that trainer,if any,and how they fared.Then you can compile your list.
Incidentally,it might be worth mentioning that I read on another reputable site that the % of owners whose horses backed blindly run-after-run showing profits to level stakes is much higher than that of trainers.That is another angle that might be worth pursuing as it can give us an edge over the bookmakers.But as far as I know there is not a complete list of every owner on the net.Hi gang
i think the different between the RP forecast price & the opening price can be a good indication of the trainer’s plans for the horse.
byefrom
carlisleThank you for the observations so far. I will just ‘plough’ on for a while and see what develops. Today I have listed the trainers in racecard order that are currently in form with good records for the race in question (taken from the Sporting Life site). Taking those where the price drops just before the off to shorter than the opening price.
Kempton
2.20 A King
2.50 C Mann, A King, P Nicholls, J O’Neill
3.25 P Nicholls, A King, E Lavelle
4.00 C Mann, P Nicholls, A King
4.35 A King, C Mann, N Twiston-Davies, P Nicholls, P Hobbs
5.05 A King, P Nicholls
5.35 P Hobbs, E WilliamsFormath
With so many runners most days would it be easier to use it for the placepot or jackpot only to small stakes i’m sure you could have had a few up by nowhave fun
Have Fun, the system depends on watching market moves close to the ‘off’ so your suggestion isn’t practical. Today I have been very selective and only taken those with the higher strike-rates in each race:
Pontefract
2.10 B Hills
2.40 M Johnston
3.40 M JarvisJust for interest other trainers were:
2.10 J Dunlop
2.40 D Elsworth
3.10 R Price, J Dore
3.40 G Butler
4.10 I Williams, J Geake
4.40 I WilliamsOverall the best way is to draw up a select list of trainers that have shown a decent strike rate and also made good level stakes profits over the last 5 or 6 seasons. The second part was to search out is the type of race the porfits were actually made in.
Non handicaps, sellers, hurdle races or chases etc etc.This was the method I employed when I wrote my trainers books.
There are many examples where backing a trainer blind at a particular track would have made massive level stakes profits year after year.
Take John Gosden at Newmarket’s Rowley track as an example. He is over 100 points up over the last 5 seasons. With all prices settled at s.p.
In many interviews John Gosden who is normally quite reticent has explained that he has often targets this track with his better horses and does expect them to do well there.
On the jumps Brendan Powell does very well with his horses racing in hurdles races at Fontwell.
Of course some of these trends are always changing, Noel Chance used to make massive profits in hurdle races at Plumpton.
Gardie Grissell used to be the man at his local Folkestone track and following his runners blindly you would have had many winners at prices such as 25/1, 33/1 and he won one 8 runner race with a 100/1 chance.
Backing certain trainers blindly will always be easier than waiting to see what horses from certain yards have been backed .imho
Is a horse that was an 8/1 chance ten minutes ago suddenly a good thing as it is now 6/1?
Seagull, regarding your comments, what would you regard as a decent strike-rate as I use 20% as my cut off point at present? Also I am very wary of runners at longer odds than 7/1.
Today I checked the Exeter racecard and the trainer to consider in each of these races is P Nicholls:
2.10, 2.40, 3.10, 3.40, 4.40
Formath
With established trainers such as John Gosden, Sir M. Prescott, P. Nicolls, Alan King, Nick Henderson etc I looked for at least a 33.% strike rate over 6 seasons and a level stake profit at S.P. in the types of race chosen.The period of time I used for my calculations was always 6 seasons.
With other trainers not so well known or established I used to alllow a strike rate of 25% again in certain types of race although some could have good results in both Chases and Hurdles races or handicaps and maidens.
Paul Nicholls would currently not be in my list at Exeter neither would Phillip Hobbs or David Pipe.
The reasons are they do not make level stakes profits there and they are normally ‘overbet’ and a prime example was the stupid price Gullible Gordon went off at in a 15 runner amateur race there yesterday. If if the horse had won that was still a stupid price
A prime recent winning example ( and without the accusations of aftertiming please)
was Heather Dalton and the record of her runners in Chases at Plumpton which the R.Post gave as 60.0% she had just two runners there Monday, Morentino backed in from 10/1 on course and a winner @15/2.Heather nearly changed her hurdle record there into a winning one with Drawback coming 2nd @33/1.Backed from 50/1.
Seagull, thank you for your explanation.
My trainer for the day at Southwell is A King in the 3.20, 3.50 & 4.20.
Formath,
Yes Alan King always does well there the other two I will be backing on b/f at Southwell are Bench Warrant in the 3.50 and Spear Thistle in the 4.50 both from Charlie Mann’s yard.
rgds
Seagull,
You mention Brendon Powell has a good record at Fontwell.
He did have a 100/1 winner there a few years back, do your figures take this type of thing (where one individual win could change records dramatically) in to account?
Ginge
Value Is EverythingGinger,
Brendan Powell has had 22 hurdle winners and 11 chase winners at Fontwell over the last 5 seasons. (a 133.73 point profit at level stakes to s.p.) There has also been two winners in bumper races but his record in that type of race is poor with 2-27 and a lsl at sp of 21.63.He fares much better at Fontwell than at Plumpton the other Sussex jumps track where he has had just 3 winners from 64 runners.
Overall I back his chasers and hurdlers at Fontwell and tend to lay them at Uttoxeter and Warwick where he has had just 3 winners from 64 runners.
BTW
Another good one to lay blindly is John Dunlop at the two new courses.It has long been known that John Dunlop has always had a terrible record on the AW tracks.
At his Open Day I few years back I asked him why he does not seem to send his better quality horses to one of his local tracks which is Lingfield.
His reply was that he trained his horses for the long term and most did not have dirt pedigrees and he used Lingfield especially to give a horse experiance of travelling and visiting a racecourse.
His record at Great Leighs is 0-8. and his record since Kempton raced on AW is 1-36. The record at Lingfield AW is 2-39.
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