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415 Wolverhampton
I like the look of Firewalker here who if he produces its second off 67 before Christmas should be hard to beat. For the forecast I like Weetfromthechaff who might benefit from the decent pace I am anticipating Firewalker making.
450 Wolverhampton
I am going against the favoured horses here with some larger priced fancies. Probable favourite Savilles Delight has been running consistently of late though not at Wolverhampton. Also never won over 6F on the AW as yet. Cape Of Storms has been running well at Southwell but not convinced he reproduces the same level of form at Wolves. I am going to go for Just Spike who ran respectably at the end of December after coming wide off the bend when off 60. Now off 52 and likely to get a good pace from the favourite. A knocking EW bet at 20/1. For the forecast Mister Elegant. Ran OK in a claimer here before Christmas before winning a seller at Southwell. For the tricast I’m chucking in Boisdale who invariably runs well at Wolverhampton and could sneak the place at big odds.
520 Wolverhampton
I like the looks of Right Option, Deccan Express & Rollin & Tumblin here. Rollin & Tumblin has been running well at Kempton and if able to reproduce at Wolves will go close although have a reservation about the jockey. Right Option won over C&D in October and reproducing that would have every chance although once again have a reservation about the jockey. Deccan Express ran well over C&D LTO on its first run on the AW and unlike the other two will have a more experienced jockey on board.
A tricky one to decide for me as to whether to go for Right Option with the jockey query or Deccan Express. I’m going to go for Deccan Express with a RFC with Right Option.
Yes Furze Hill it was. I thought for a moment between the last two he might hold on but its a fair run from the last to the line on the chase course.
Max
I was tossing up between Southwell & Towcester today and decided to go to Towcester because I thought it had the better card. Managed to break even thanks to the 6th race where I backed the winner and got the exacta. Didnt think it was going to be my day as I had 4 seconds prior to the winner including 16/1 & 20/1 seconds in the first two races.
As for tonight not had chance to look but I will have a little on Candy Anchor in the last who should have been placed LTO behind Morbick.
Thanks Max,
Fortunately I did a combined tricast to small stakes, however the other three races I played in I couldn’t manage a place.
Champion Hurdlers of the last 15 years –
Only two horses have won the Champion having not won their previous race –
Granville Again (1993) – LTO 3rd in Christmas Hurdle (G1)
Hardy Eustace (2004) – LTO 2nd in Red Gala (G2)
Hardy Eustace only lost a short head giving away 13lb to winner.PC
Likewise only Brave Inca & Istabraq have gone on to win the CH after winning the AIG.
Also in the last ten years only Rooster Booster has run in a handicap in the same season before winning the CH although I think in the mid 1990’s Collier Bay,Flakey Dove and Make A Stand all ran in hcaps before winning what you could say were average champion hurdles
125 Lingfield
I like the look of Barton Sands here. Although getting on a bit seems to have kept his ability after a year off running well over C&D and winning over 12F. Does need to come from off the pace so a little luck in running will be required but at around 6’s or 7’s is a solid EW bet.
For the forecast I’m going for Josr’s Magic who ran well over C&D before Christmas. Ran wide off the bend that day and only beaten a length and a half so hopefully wont be too far away. Lordswood who has been running well over 8F recently is worth another try at this trip and I have him for the tricast.
Ginger
"When I bet it does not matter about SP’s. You say 22.8% of 3/1 SP’s win, why is this significant?"
I know you don’t bet at SP. I was using the SP as a factual example of percentage strike rates. I was trying to highlight that it would be possible with regard to the 77.2% of losers, you had calculated all of them as being even money shots. It could also be possible that you calculated the 22.8% of 3/1 winners at 5/1 and therefore didn’t bet them.
Your statement "Each 3/1 shot is an individual, if you believe any 3/1 shot has more than a 25% chance it should be backed. If you are correct enough times then you will make a profit.
I guess that is the crux of the matter, enough times ? You still have to pick the winner.
What happens by the way if you have priced up a race and you have 2 or 3 horses that are underpriced ?
Ginger
"Aaron
I have never talked about SP’s. There is absolutely no point in taking SP bets, because I do not know if they will be value or not. The 4/1 shots I talk about are either early prices or board prices, prices you can take. But you are right your question is as clear as mud. "Ok, lets try this way. There are a hundred horses who have gone off at an SP of 3/1. Of that 100 you have backed 50 of them as you have taken your "value" price dependent on your calculation of their odds against what was offered, for example morning price was 7/2 , your price 5/2. Based on its starting price since 1998 horses that finished at an SP of 3/1 have won 22.8% of their races. So therefore is it still possible that the 50 you have backed at your value price are included in the 73 losing 3/1 chances. A simple YES or NO will do.
"If out of that sample of a hundred he thinks there are 50 of those that should be less than 4/1 on your advice he should back them and would win,EH? If he thinks anything has a less than 20% chance he should not be backing it at 4/1.
however there is still the probablility that those fifty will fall into the 80 beaten 4/1 shots. Right ?
EH? Don’t quite understand your last bit."Apologies for the above I was at work so rushed it a bit.
Ginger what I was trying to say was this.
A sample of 100 horses which all have an SP returned of 4/1. The probability of a 4/1 shot is 20% and in practice 4/1 chances win nearly 20% of the time. If out of that sample you think that 50 of those 4/1 chances should be say 3/1 you would advise to bet them. However from that sample of 100 SP’s of 4/1 there will be 80 losers. So there is a probability that all of your 3/1 chances that are actually 4/1 will be all included in the 80 losers ? Clear as mud
Ginger
you wrote "I say again, it does not matter if this horse wins or loses, as long as he wins more than 20% of his bets at 4/1. If he is a good judge of probabilities he will make a profit."
But if he can win more than 20% of his bets at 4/1 he’s going to make a profit anyway regardless of what price he thinks it should be.
At the end of the day if he backs a hundred 4/1 chances he will need them to win 20 races to break even. If out of that sample of a hundred he thinks there are 50 of those that should be less than 4/1 on your advice he should back them and would win, however there is still the probablility that those fifty will fall into the 80 beaten 4/1 shots. Right ?
Ginger
What you didn’t know was that before you arrived the dice had already been thrown 600 times with 3 coming up only 56 times. therefore over the total 900 throws 3 came up 90 times = 10% and "true odds" of 9/1. I wouldn’t take that 8/1 if I were you.
I’m with what reet said "there are no true odds in horseracing, just as there is no true value, just prices formed from opinions."
The whole subject is completely subjective.
No time for a write up I’m afraid but I do fancy a couple at Wolves this afternoon
140 Commander Wish
250 Run From Nun (Forecast Tahlamahana)clivex
You wrote
"Katchit certainly isnt out of the picture"
I think for winning the CH it is. I don’t think there is a previous years Triumph Hurdle winner who has won a Grade 1 the following season in the last 15 years with the exception of maybe Paddys Return who won over 3M. In fact I don’t think too many of them have won a Grade 1 hurdle ever again.
You also wrote
"Brave Inca was defeated in his first SIX all aged grade ones"
I think this reinforces the fact it is very difficult to win a Grade 1 the year after being a novice. Only two previous winners have done it in the last 15 years I think, Istabraq & Hardy Eustace who both won the 2M5F race in their novice years. With the greatest of respect I don’t Katchit will be joining their club.
Sublimity obviously managed the feat of winning first season out of Novicing last year and I firmly believe he has been fully fit twice in his life over hurdles and both times have been in the month of March. If he’s fully fit this March I think he will win again, but that is a big IF.
Back to good old Wolves tonight
750
Desert Opal – Reasonably consistent sort who has done most of its winning at Wolverhampton although only win on AW in the last year has been a claimer. Place chance at best for me
Fizzlephut – Both wins on AW have been over course and distance and down to its last winning mark. A tad disappointing LTO, however not sure leading from the start suits. Jockey on board has ridden Triskaidekaphobia to two recent wins but keeps faith with this one.
Triskaidekaphobia – Won 3 out of last 4 over C&D but a stone higher than it first win in Dec. Should still get the lead and if left alone could prove hard to peg back.
Strathmore – Running respectably without winning at Wolves before opening all weather account at Southwell over 6F. Back to 5F today which I don’t think will help. passed over today.
Multahab – A little disappointing when last seen in October however was drawn wide that day. His win in September would probably be good enough and trainer isn’t adverse to landing a touch so watching the market would prove indicative.
Hawaii Prince – Poor run on first try on AW LTO. Best left alone today
Lord Of The Reins – Reasonable AW record though would seem to prefer 6F, however will be fininshing better than most so wont be far away at the death.
Music Box Express – Won its maiden over C&D in December but has come up short in two C&D hcap appearances since. Not for me.The two Tooth runners Fizzlephut & Triskaidekaphobia could hold the key to this with my fancy being Fizzlephut to pick up Triskaidekaphobia late on. I do fear Multahab if back to his best but once again he is drawn wide.
Quadrilla
Forgot to ask do you use only the winners time to calculate the average time ?
Quadrilla
Apologies if my post seemed to you to be critical in any way, that was not the intention. I was merely trying to find out how you came to your figures or what factors you took in to consideration.
On the AW I take alot of notice of times. However historically I have found it difficult to equate the times to the different courses because of the different surfaces and therefore tend to concentrate on previous course form. I’m alright at Wolves, Lingfield is OK, Southwell I think still needs to settle down after the floods and Kempton I’m useless at.
I am still unsure as to how you calculate the corrected time. In my previous post I assumed you attributed a going adjustment however obviously I was mistaken.
Am I right in thinking you take the average time achieved in the class and equate that to the time completed by the horse ?
What I mean by this is that you ascertain how good that horse is in its class as a percentage and then equate that to the average time of the race it is running in today and therfore who ever comes out fastest is the top rated ?Do you take weight in to consideration ? Do you input any factors in to increase / decrease of race distance ie 10f form but running over 12f ?
I have never read Beyer but am aware of him through reading other bits and pieces, maybe I should take a look ?