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Back: Faugheen
Yes, boring I know but there really is no stopping the monster in Willie Mullins’s yard. I can’t help but remember how powerfully he ran up the Cheltenham hill last year. I’m convinced that they can’t go too fast for him and he could flatten every hurdle and win this year’s Champion running backwards. I’ve only ever been this confident this far off about a festival winner since Hurricane Fly’s first Champion Hurdle – and I wasn’t let down then and can’t see being let down this time. I was a mahoosive The New One fan in his novice days (backed him almost every race) but I just can’t see him ever winning a Champion Hurdle especially as I still believe if he was good enough he could have won last year. Hurricane Fly’s never liked Cheltenham and is too long in the tooth to win by class alone. The plan is the smash into the Machine to get the festival off to a flyer.
Lay: Sprinter Sacre
Let it be known that I do not lay horses, never had and never will. But given that I’m all over the Champion Chase with my ante-post, I’m in for a good profit if any of the leading principles bar the Henderson Goliath win. To that extent I feel I only have Sprinter Sacre to beat (Mr Mole is just a progressive handicapper in my opinion and can see him completing in his own time). I am, too, of the opinion that Sprinter Sacre was at about 95% fit for his return last month and that he simply is now too many pounds below his best to regain his crown although I wouldn’t mind too much if proved wrong.
Each-Way: Clarcam
I think he is a much better horse than his thrashing at the hands of the favourite last time out suggests. He’s a quality horse who should relish better going. There’s only Un De Sceaux to beat for this one in my opinion and who knows, there’s every chance Walsh could be sent flying out the saddle.Bumped into Dolly Parton the other day and mentioned this column to her. She doesn’t lay horses and prefers win only bets. I asked her for four to make up a yankee for Cheltenham and she said:-
"Faugheen, Faugheen, Faugheen, Faughee-ee-een"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The horse would win even if Dolly was doing the steering.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The horse would win even if Dolly was doing the steering.
A bit lacking in safety from Dolly there with no helmet.
Mind you, she does have two airbags fitted in case of any mishaps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Back: Silviniaco Conti 100/30 (Paddy Power) Gold Cup
Simply has by far the best form in the race and possible negatives have been exaggerated imo. Almost certain to win if running to form. Superiority over the rest warrents him being odds-on if there were no negatives whatsoever. It is an extra one and a half furlongs; but Haydock’s 3m1f win was on very soft, stamina sapping ground.
What’s the evidence of not liking Cheltenham? Has run three times there. As a hurdler finished third in International Hurdle. 4 1/2 and half a length behind Menorah and Cue Card. Silvi was third favourite behind those two, so not expected to win. He was also giving the pair 4 lbs, suggesting under levels would’ve finished less than a length behind Menorah and three in front of Cue Card… And twice in the Gold Cup…
Two years ago going better than anything else when falling 3 out. Too far out to be certain where he’d finish, but there’s no evidence to suggest he would not have been involved in the finish.
Last year came to win the race, looking likely winner jumping the last, only to wander all over the place on run in and giving the race away. Finishing an admittedly disappointing 4th. Was it the course, or stamina, or some other reason? Next time out, few weeks later at Aintree – again wandered badly both ways – this time between the last two fences. Unlike Cheltenham, having enough time to recover and win. If it was stamina or the course that was the problem at Cheltenham, then why did he act the same at Aintree (a flat course) at 3m? Silviniaco Conti disappointed on reappearance in the Charlie Hall (probably needed race) then came right back to his best in Betfair Chase and King George VI. Both occasions wearing first and second time cheek pieces in both races there was no sign of the Spring waywardness. Seems to me the wayward temperament tendencies shown at both Cheltenham and Aintree have been settled by cheek pieces. Whether there is some other contributing reason for the defeat last year, we’ll see.Way the horse finished the King George – impressive. Fehily setting even fractions, revealing Silvi was not tiring after 3 miles. He did not beat out and out stayers, but Dynaste stays 3 miles very well. Argueably the Pipe horse’s two best performances in form terms are at 3 miles, in last season’s Betfair and this season’s King George. So whether Silviniaco Conti beat horses that would not stay 3m2f110yrds does not matter, the form (and time) produced is still the same as it would’ve been had the places been out and out stayers – ie outstanding form (compared to all his Gold Cup rivals). Whether Silviniaco Conti stays 3m2f110yrds around Cheltenham has not been proven yet; but the way he’s run at 3m and 3m1f imo suggests very strongly has an excellent chance of doing so.
The Cheltenham factor can be a major influence in who wins at the festival, but can also make some horses much bigger than they should be because of a supposed weakness. We saw last year Sire De Grugy going off an unbelievable price in the Champion Chase. Silviniaco Conti is imo a horse with a chance of between 2/1 and 6/4 (between 33% and 40%). He’s being offered @ 100/30 (23%) NRNB. So at least 10% better, if not 17% better. A bet with a capital "B".
Value Is EverythingWhat a superb post, GT. Credit to you win or lose.
I’ve been tempted to back Silviniaco Conti for a while, but just couldn’t verbalise my hunch that he is still good value at 100/30. Now it all makes sense – thank you!
Each Way and Lay:
My each way shot is not what you might expect. Usually people look at each way bets as a double figure price. Mine is only 6/1 with Paddy Power nrnb. It’s more of an (almost) free win bet.
Jezki in the Champion Hurdle. Am not one who’s particularly negative about the favourite Faugheen. Might be worth a bet on the day if odds-against. It’s often said "what did he beat", but the fact is he’s beaten good (not top class) horses both easily and by a long way. Plenty of room to fit top class horses in those 8 lengths between him and Purple Bay with 9 back to Blue Heron in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Runner-up not run since, but had given 6 lbs and a 4 length beating to Bertimont, with 3/4 back to Rock On Ruby, getting 6 lbs from the ex-champion in Elite Hurdle. Latter probably needs further nowadays (goes for Stayers Hurdle), but still a fine performance by Purple Bay.
Bertimont disappointed next time, but came back to form only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in receipt of 8 lbs by Champion second favourite The New One at Haydock. TNO obviously below form at Haydock in very soft ground, jumping right-handed which is a bit of a worry for Cheltenham; both in being a left-handed course and a question mark on the horse’s soundness. Has gone right before, but not to such an extent. I backed him for this last year, we know he’s better than Haydock, but the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay suggests the Twister’s horse has 8 lengths to make up in one go on easy Kempton winner Faugheen. Even at his best I dont think The New One is as good as Faugheen and the latter is improving.
Incidentally, Christmas Hurdle 3rd Blue Heron (beaten 17 lengths by Faugheen and no longer entered in Champion) went on to show improved form when winning the Kingwell Hurdle by 6 lengths in receipt of 4 lbs from second Irving.
Last year’s Champion was marred by the sad fatality of Our Conor. The New One hampered and lost ground. Sam took his time to get back to them, may be had he seriously asked the horse earlier would have done better. Finished best of all, seemingly quickening rather than staying on. In my opinion The New One has enough pace at his best to be fully effective at 2 miles. Would’ve been closer to both Jezki and My Tent Or Yours, but far from certain the result would’ve been any different without interference.
With The New One’s poor Haydock show and uncertainty over last year’s race – I see no reason why he should be only top price of 3/1 compared to double that for Jezki. Seldom get involved with laying, but 3/1 is very poor value imo and worth a lay.
Jezki has not shown the Champion Hurdle form yet this season, but imo he’s a Spring horse. Each of the last two years has come to the Festival (and afterwards at Punchestown) and improved a lot on the form he’d shown previously that year.
imo In the last few years it’s been the opposite for Hurricane Fly; not at his very best at Cheltenham… Although reminds me a lot of Sea Pigeon, consistent, with wonderful turn of foot and battling qualities – will need to do a Sea Pigeon to win, now 11 years old. Most hurdlers of that age are on the downgrade and a strict reading of the actual form suggests The Fly is no longer at his very best away from Cheltenham either. Would’ve beaten a horse of Arctic Fire‘s quality by further than 3 1/2 lengths in previous years (1 3/4 lengths on penultimate start).
It’s true Jezki has been beaten three times by The Fly this season, but it would’ve been close between the two last time without making an uncharacteristic mistake at the last. Will be much better suited by the likely truly run race at Cheltenham.
I backed Sign Of A Victory early on, but hasn’t fulfilled the potential of a handicap win on goodish ground at Ascot.
What else is there to stop Jezki at least getting a place?
In my opinion the fair odds at this stage are:11/10 Faugheen, Jezki 9/2, The New One 5/1 and 10/1 Hurricane Fly, 33/1 Purple Bay, Arctic Fire 40/1, with The Field a combined 28/1.
Wouldn’t put anyone off backing Purple Bay each way @ 50/1, but I just favour Jezki @ 6’s.
Lay The New One @ 3/1.[/color:1hb5bf0w]
Value Is EverythingBACK
OLBG Mares Hurdle – Glens Melody 6/1
Miss Reliable. 2nd to Quevega last year, rather unflattered by the result in the end as the only one to really serve it up to Quevega. Annie Power likely to go to the World Hurdle with More Of That sitting out.
LAY
Foxhunters’ Chase – Teaforthree
He still needs to be first or second in another hunter before Cheltenham. As an older horse who has had his problems, racing twice in quick succession on bad winter ground could easily leave him a little flat on the big day itself. The Irish hunters are a grizzled bunch and I think 11/4 is way too short.Also, Nichols Canyon in whatever race he runs in. If you look at his flat form, he managed to get beaten in handicap off 85 when uncomfortable on good-to-firm ground. He was then kept to soft ground and improved to be 100+. Unless it comes up unseasonably soft in March, he could bomb out.
EACH-WAYRSA Chase – Sausalito Sunrise 25/1.
Hopefully he runs. Better ground will help, as will the end-to-end gallop that a Coneygree or Kings Palace will serve up. I think he could emulate his owner’s Arkle winner Captain Chris by hitting a new level at the Festival.
Very interesting TYF… I like how Sausalito Sunrise has gone under the radar, being fresh and on song for the RSA has clearly been the plan for a while, no other entries. Hobbs thinks an awful lot of this horse, picked him out as his horse to follow this year. Will relish better ground for sure. Also, I’m a fan of Gold Well as a sire.
Back: Faugheen
– all the figures stack up: age, progression, times, acceleration, course form
– heard from a connection that he did a frightening piece of work last week with Douvan, leaving the novice for dead, by all accounts he’s just getting better and betterLay: Peace and co Triumph
– impressive no doubt but crazy short price for the triumph
– triumph hurdle trial is more of a curse than the feltham is to the RSA!Each way: Blaklion 14/1 Albert Bartlett
– far less question marks IMO than the 4 contenders at shorter prices
– only holds an entry to this race
– loves an uphill finish
– won at the track
– relishes better groundBack – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
Lay – Vautour (JLT)
Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.Back – Ma Filleule (Ryanair) Must have a great chance as she is a spring horse, tough and has a mare’s allowance.
Lay – Vautour (JLT)
Each Way – Devilment (Triumph) Looked impressive on its last run.I would love to hear the reason for laying Vautour.
Back – Monksland (16/1 World Hurdle)
Lay – Silviniaco Conti (3/1 Gold Cup)
EW – Simply Ned (20/1 Champion Chase)Reasons for laying Vautour are not hard to come by. What has he beaten over fences?
He had one let down when mega odds on and has been short as a carrot in his three chases.
On his Supreme Novices form you would make him one of the favourites but what he’s done chasing does nothing to add any excitement to his prospects. He could be great but we have not seen it so far over the bigger obstacles.
His latest race saw him stroll home from a horse whose rating was so low you could be forgiven for thinking it was his flat mark. Real Steel who fell in that race went on to be last of 4 when odds on favourite Gilgamboa got scalded by a 25/1 shot.
I can’t seem to find an official rating for Vautour but the Racing Post have him on 153 on their ratings, which is behind Apache Stronghold on 155 and a good bit behind Ptit Zig, who is 165 with the RPR. Topspeed has Vautour on 93, Apache Stronghold on 122 and Ptit Zig on 138. Official ratings have Apache Stronghold on 153 and Ptit Zig on 159.
Of course ratings are only part of the story but they need to be considered, particularly when we are talking about a favourite as short as 2/1 in a place.
Vautour was an impressive looking Supreme winner and he went into my Ten To Follow pretty quickly. However, I haven’t seen enough from him to warrant his odds.
No doubt Willie Mullins giving the horse a molecule of praise is enough to send some people scurrying to the bookies to get on at any price but he’s not for me. Had Ptit Zig won last time instead of falling he would be a warmish favourite for this. It’s hard to tell how he would have fared if he had stood up but I feel he should probably be favourite for the JLT on the balance of what the two have achieved over the bigger obstacles and they came into this game with barely a fag paper between them over hurdles.
Apache Stronghold is another solid alternative at an each-way price, so, in my opinion it’s hardly folly to be talking of opposing Vautour.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Add to that Mullins 7% strikerate with chasers over here the last 5 years….6/92….then there’s every reason to lay IMO…
Back:
Value at Risk (Bartlett 10-1); Hargam (Triumph 11-2); Sprinter Sacre (QMCC 11-4)
EW:
Run Ructions Run (Pertemps); Clarcam (Arkle); Karezak (Triumph)
Lay:
Faugheen (Champion); Dodging Bullets (QMCC); Any Currency (X-Country)
<b>Jezki</b> in the Champion Hurdle. Am not one who’s particularly negative about the favourite <b>Faugheen</b>. Might be worth a bet on the day if odds-against. It’s often said “what did he beat”, but the fact is he’s beaten good (not top class) horses both easily and by a long way. Plenty of room to fit top class horses in those 8 lengths between him and <b>Purple Bay</b> with 9 back to <b>Blue Heron</b> in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Runner-up not run since, but had given 6 lbs and a 4 length beating to <b>Bertimont</b>, with 3/4 back to <b>Rock On Ruby</b>, getting 6 lbs from the ex-champion in Elite Hurdle. Latter probably needs further nowadays (goes for Stayers Hurdle), but still a fine performance by Purple Bay.
Bertimont disappointed next time, but came back to form only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in receipt of 8 lbs by Champion second favourite <b>The New One</b> at Haydock. TNO obviously below form at Haydock in very soft ground, jumping right-handed which is a bit of a worry for Cheltenham; both in being a left-handed course and a question mark on the horse’s soundness. Has gone right before, but not to such an extent. I backed him for this last year, we know he’s better than Haydock, but the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay suggests the Twister’s horse has 8 lengths to make up in one go on easy Kempton winner Faugheen. Even at his best I dont think The New One is as good as Faugheen and the latter is improving.
<span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: #FF0000:1hb5bf0w”></span><b>Lay The New One @ 3/1.</b>[/color:1hb5bf0w]
Don’t get your workings out that The New One has 8 lengths to find with Faugheen on a line through Bertimont?
Unless of course you are basing it as a fact going on last time in atrocious conditions at one of the worst courses around when it gets heavy….
Why not use the line of form from Cheltenham when The New One gave Bertimont 8lbs in weight and a 17 length thrashing?
You also failed to take into account the 7lb claim of Mikey Ennis that day too, which meant in real terms Bertimont was giving Purple Bay a pound in weight…
Bringing Rock On Ruby into equations aswell, you could point to the fact Purple Bay in receipt of 13lbs (including jockey claim) only beat it around 5 lengths….while The New One thrashed it 10 lengths off level weights when they met over 2 miles….
So on those 2 lines of form, there’s enough evidence to believe The New One would beat Purple Bay just as easily as Faugheen did….or am I missing something?
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