Your back, lay and each-way

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Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 45 total)
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  • #782882
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Reasons for laying Vautour are not hard to come by. What has he beaten over fences?

    He had one let down when mega odds on and has been short as a carrot in his three chases.

    On his Supreme Novices form you would make him one of the favourites but what he’s done chasing does nothing to add any excitement to his prospects. He could be great but we have not seen it so far over the bigger obstacles.

    His latest race saw him stroll home from a horse whose rating was so low you could be forgiven for thinking it was his flat mark. Real Steel who fell in that race went on to be last of 4 when odds on favourite Gilgamboa got scalded by a 25/1 shot.

    I can’t seem to find an official rating for Vautour but the Racing Post have him on 153 on their ratings, which is behind Apache Stronghold on 155 and a good bit behind Ptit Zig, who is 165 with the RPR. Topspeed has Vautour on 93, Apache Stronghold on 122 and Ptit Zig on 138. Official ratings have Apache Stronghold on 153 and Ptit Zig on 159.

    Of course ratings are only part of the story but they need to be considered, particularly when we are talking about a favourite as short as 2/1 in a place.

    Vautour was an impressive looking Supreme winner and he went into my Ten To Follow pretty quickly. However, I haven’t seen enough from him to warrant his odds.

    No doubt Willie Mullins giving the horse a molecule of praise is enough to send some people scurrying to the bookies to get on at any price but he’s not for me. Had Ptit Zig won last time instead of falling he would be a warmish favourite for this. It’s hard to tell how he would have fared if he had stood up but I feel he should probably be favourite for the JLT on the balance of what the two have achieved over the bigger obstacles and they came into this game with barely a fag paper between them over hurdles.

    Apache Stronghold is another solid alternative at an each-way price, so, in my opinion it’s hardly folly to be talking of opposing Vautour.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #782955
    ZamorstonZamorston
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1101

    Add to that Mullins 7% strikerate with chasers over here the last 5 years….6/92….then there’s every reason to lay IMO…

    #782974
    grey dolphingrey dolphin
    Participant
    • Total Posts 653

    Back:

    Value at Risk (Bartlett 10-1); Hargam (Triumph 11-2); Sprinter Sacre (QMCC 11-4)

    EW:

    Run Ructions Run (Pertemps); Clarcam (Arkle); Karezak (Triumph)

    Lay:

    Faugheen (Champion); Dodging Bullets (QMCC); Any Currency (X-Country)

    :whistle:

    #783027
    ZamorstonZamorston
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1101

    <b>Jezki</b> in the Champion Hurdle. Am not one who’s particularly negative about the favourite <b>Faugheen</b>. Might be worth a bet on the day if odds-against. It’s often said “what did he beat”, but the fact is he’s beaten good (not top class) horses both easily and by a long way. Plenty of room to fit top class horses in those 8 lengths between him and <b>Purple Bay</b> with 9 back to <b>Blue Heron</b> in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Runner-up not run since, but had given 6 lbs and a 4 length beating to <b>Bertimont</b>, with 3/4 back to <b>Rock On Ruby</b>, getting 6 lbs from the ex-champion in Elite Hurdle. Latter probably needs further nowadays (goes for Stayers Hurdle), but still a fine performance by Purple Bay.

    Bertimont disappointed next time, but came back to form only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in receipt of 8 lbs by Champion second favourite <b>The New One</b> at Haydock. TNO obviously below form at Haydock in very soft ground, jumping right-handed which is a bit of a worry for Cheltenham; both in being a left-handed course and a question mark on the horse’s soundness. Has gone right before, but not to such an extent. I backed him for this last year, we know he’s better than Haydock, but the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay suggests the Twister’s horse has 8 lengths to make up in one go on easy Kempton winner Faugheen. Even at his best I dont think The New One is as good as Faugheen and the latter is improving.

    <span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: #FF0000:1hb5bf0w”></span><b>Lay The New One @ 3/1.</b>[/color:1hb5bf0w]

    Don’t get your workings out that The New One has 8 lengths to find with Faugheen on a line through Bertimont?

    Unless of course you are basing it as a fact going on last time in atrocious conditions at one of the worst courses around when it gets heavy….

    Why not use the line of form from Cheltenham when The New One gave Bertimont 8lbs in weight and a 17 length thrashing?

    You also failed to take into account the 7lb claim of Mikey Ennis that day too, which meant in real terms Bertimont was giving Purple Bay a pound in weight…

    Bringing Rock On Ruby into equations aswell, you could point to the fact Purple Bay in receipt of 13lbs (including jockey claim) only beat it around 5 lengths….while The New One thrashed it 10 lengths off level weights when they met over 2 miles….

    So on those 2 lines of form, there’s enough evidence to believe The New One would beat Purple Bay just as easily as Faugheen did….or am I missing something?

    #786723
    chalk jockey
    Participant
    • Total Posts 252

    Back
    Grand Annual,Next Sensation watch last years race.He has been trained for the race.
    Each Way
    Champion Hurdle, Jezki should get placed with luck in running.
    Lay
    Champion Chase,Sprinter Sacre,they never come back.

    If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

    #786802
    burroughillburroughill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 102

    Back: Hurricane Fly…that’s just my heart talking, but I do think he could do it……possibly.

    Lay:Sprinter Sacre….just don’t belive he’s as good as he was.

    Each way:Holywell….shoo in

    I'd like to live in a place where they cordon off swans...
    #790625
    mable57
    Participant
    • Total Posts 13

    My first post in almost 4 years here, lovely to be back.The site looks excellent – Cheltenham always draws me back!

    Back: Don Poli (rsa) – Best horse in a relatively weak renewal of the RSA. Battled at Leapordstown, course form etc.

    Lay: Sprinter Sacre – No evidence to suggest he will improve past Dodging Bullets, let alone Champagne Fever.

    Each way: Valseur Lido (jlt)….lovely jumper. Well touted by the yard – 6/1 a lovely price.

    #823591
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Have added Moon Racer in the Bumper at 12/1, making my main bet total four horses long.

    Moon Racer

    Ptit Zig

    Road To Riches

    Hargam

    Road To Riches seems pretty much ignored in the build up to this and I can’t say I’m too confident after watching the stables Very Wood run very moderately in the 4 miler today.

    I’ll be over the moon if Moon Racer can upset the Mullins Millions. Hopefully he’ll eclipse the rest. :yahoo:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #823998
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26354

    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
    <b>Jezki</b> in the Champion Hurdle. Am not one who’s particularly negative about the favourite <b>Faugheen</b>. Might be worth a bet on the day if odds-against. It’s often said “what did he beat”, but the fact is he’s beaten good (not top class) horses both easily and by a long way. Plenty of room to fit top class horses in those 8 lengths between him and <b>Purple Bay</b> with 9 back to <b>Blue Heron</b> in Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle. Runner-up not run since, but had given 6 lbs and a 4 length beating to <b>Bertimont</b>, with 3/4 back to <b>Rock On Ruby</b>, getting 6 lbs from the ex-champion in Elite Hurdle. Latter probably needs further nowadays (goes for Stayers Hurdle), but still a fine performance by Purple Bay.

    Bertimont disappointed next time, but came back to form only beaten 2 1/4 lengths in receipt of 8 lbs by Champion second favourite <b>The New One</b> at Haydock. TNO obviously below form at Haydock in very soft ground, jumping right-handed which is a bit of a worry for Cheltenham; both in being a left-handed course and a question mark on the horse’s soundness. Has gone right before, but not to such an extent. I backed him for this last year, we know he’s better than Haydock, but the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay suggests the Twister’s horse has 8 lengths to make up in one go on easy Kempton winner Faugheen. Even at his best I dont think The New One is as good as Faugheen and the latter is improving.

    <span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: #FF0000:1hb5bf0w”></span><b>Lay The New One @ 3/1.</b>[/color:1hb5bf0w]

    Don’t get your workings out that The New One has 8 lengths to find with Faugheen on a line through Bertimont?

    Unless of course you are basing it as a fact going on last time in atrocious conditions at one of the worst courses around when it gets heavy….

    Why not use the line of form from Cheltenham when The New One gave Bertimont 8lbs in weight and a 17 length thrashing?

    You also failed to take into account the 7lb claim of Mikey Ennis that day too, which meant in real terms Bertimont was giving Purple Bay a pound in weight…

    Bringing Rock On Ruby into equations aswell, you could point to the fact Purple Bay in receipt of 13lbs (including jockey claim) only beat it around 5 lengths….while The New One thrashed it 10 lengths off level weights when they met over 2 miles….

    So on those 2 lines of form, there’s enough evidence to believe The New One would beat Purple Bay just as easily as Faugheen did….or am I missing something?

    Sorry did not see your post until now.
    The point of my piece Zamorston was:
    At their BESTS Faugheen is NOT an 8 lbs better horse than The New One. AT HIS BEST the latter IS better than the Haydock run indicated. There are indeed “other lines of form” that could be used to compare the two. But an important part of my piece was that it was the LAST TIME OUT run. Last time out he produced a run that was (on the line through Bertimont and Purple Bay) 8lbs/lengths inferior to Faugheen’s best form. Therefore, If Faugheen were to run to form TNO would need to make 8 lengths improvement from Jan 17th to March 10th. ie TNO was so far below form last time out and the jumping right another negative… as to make me want far bigger than the 3/1 available to back him. (Or in other words a lay bet @ 3/1).

    With some exceptions for a particularly good claimer (eg Sean Bowen) – I believe claims makes up for the difference in ability between established jockey and claimer. So although you say “in real terms Bertimont was giving 1 lb in weight to Purple Bay”… In “real terms” Mikey Ennis is not as good a jockey and can not get as much out of a horse as Harry Skelton; so needs his claim to equal them out.

    value is everything
    #826016
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Back – Faugheen big engine and can run them ragged.

    Lay – The New One (place) Will try and keep tabs on Faugheen and blow up which the hold up horses can take advantage of.

    Each Way – Glens Melody 6/1 if Annie runs she’ll place anyway at worse but if Annie goes elsewhere she be much shorter.

    Doesn’t get any better than that Nathan. Enjoy the Faugheen winnings! Well done

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #826079
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5488

    <b>Back: Don Poli (RSA, 4/1)</b>
    Looks the standout candidate to me here. Previous festival winner, has taken to fences like a duck to water, and Christmas form with Apache Stronghold looks very strong.

    <b>Lay: The New One (Champion Hurdle, 3/1)</b>
    Beaten in the race last year when he appeared unlucky but I’m not convinced he would have won anyway. Has not looked an improved animal this season. I’d have issues with backing anything to beat Faugheen at 3/1.

    <b>Each-way: No More Heroes (Albert Bartlett, 10/1) </b>
    Market over-reacted to his recent defeat, where he scoped ‘rotten’ according to both Gordon Elliott and Eddie O’Leary. Previous form puts him top of the staying novice hurdle tree for me.

    Waiting on The Hero to complete the set, and all I can say is Cheltenhan is a magical place, something that every racing fan should witness. :yahoo:

    And well done Nathan :good:

    #831012
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    Lays:-

    Douvan, Holywell, Lord Windermere (Place), Many Clouds, Jezki, Mr Mole (Place), Vautour (Controversial), More Of That, Black Hercules, Parlour Games.

    Back:-

    I have backed Hargam 16/1, Road To Riches 12/1 and Ptit Zig 10/1 as my three main bets this year.

    Each-way

    Zarkandar was good each way when 12/1 but I can’t say he’s value at half the odds since I picked him.

    Tea For Two at 20/1 for The Albert Bartlett is my next best each-way shout and he’s due out on Saturday, so hopefully he’ll show something.

    Well Mullins did me in with two impressive winners but the other lays were cosily landed.

    Ended up doing Moon Racer at 12/1 and had one winner and two thirds with Road To Riches and Hargam, Ptit Zig being the one disappointment of my four main bets for the week.

    I’ve had a lot worse Cheltenhams but whatever the outcome this year this was always my last Festival for betting on.

    Life moves on and circumstances mean I am hanging up my punting boots for good. It’s not just a financial move, it’s about refocussing my attention elsewhere as well.

    It’s been a memorable meeting with some great promise for next year and hopefully a message going out to the Jezki and Lord Windermere’s of this world that it shouldn’t be about only aiming a horse at one race a year. Both trainers got exactly what they deserved after the way the campaigned their horses this year, a bit fat ZERO.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #831058
    patriot1patriot1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 418

    Back
    Grand Annual,Next Sensation watch last years race.He has been trained for the race.
    Each Way
    Champion Hurdle, Jezki should get placed with luck in running.
    Lay
    Champion Chase,Sprinter Sacre,they never come back.

    Well done with Next Sensation. Always a great feeling when you tip a big priced winner at the best meeting of the year.

    #831155
    chalk jockey
    Participant
    • Total Posts 252

    patriot1,
    Thanks for that,I thought it was a good thing till it rained.Did you have a good week?

    If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.

    #831157
    patriot1patriot1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 418

    Didn’t have a bet as I am well and truly skint. Needless to say I would have had a load of winners if I had backed some ;-)

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