Your back, lay and each-way

[thehorsesmouth]

Back: Don Poli (RSA, 4/1)
Looks the standout candidate to me here. Previous festival winner, has taken to fences like a duck to water, and Christmas form with Apache Stronghold looks very strong.

Lay: The New One (Champion Hurdle, 3/1)
Beaten in the race last year when he appeared unlucky but I’m not convinced he would have won anyway. Has not looked an improved animal this season. I’d have issues with backing anything to beat Faugheen at 3/1.

Each-way: No More Heroes (Albert Bartlett, 10/1)
Market over-reacted to his recent defeat, where he scoped ‘rotten’ according to both Gordon Elliott and Eddie O’Leary. Previous form puts him top of the staying novice hurdle tree for me.

[Gdc1]

Back: Lord Windermere proved yesterday that he is in better shape than last year, track, ground and jockey suit as well as a triple Gold Cup winning jockey as trainer!! Not many better 16/1 shots with so many pluses

Lay: Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy I have backed both horses extremely heavily in the past at the festival BUT this time round I feel they both have far too much to prove.

EW: Taquin de Seuil at 16s is a cracking and knocking EW shot in the Ryanair, Jonjo not only loves the race this horse will improve for the better ground. Add to this the fact that Gord loves it and bobs your uncle!!

[befair]

Back; Dodging Bullets, cast-iron form this season, and improving. Same profile as SDG last year.
Lay; Douvan, not convinced by Irish novice hurdlers this year. No More heroes, Tell Me More, Alissio Ville have all imploded.
EW; Kitten Rock in Champion Hurdle

[harvey2000]

Back – Ptit Zig – JLT
Looks a classy prospect and could be destined for the top over jumps.

Each way – Silver Concorde – Supreme
Won the bumper impressively and will be a massive improver on better ground come March. Is a nice price after an ok run at the weekend.

Lay – More Of That – World Hurdle
Way too many imponderables. Flopped on return, has since had a wind op, will miss it’s next intended run, may not even get to the festival at this rate, could anyone make him favourite if not even getting a prep race?

[Jasolong]

BACK: Sprinter Sacre – if he’s only 85% the horse he was then he will still win this. I like to think he is at least 90% the same horse so should win cosily. So little to improve on from his comeback run. Better ground, better fitness, more vigorous ride, proven course record and will be asked to give more at his fences.

LAY: Sire De Grugy – comeback run was awful, had less time off than sprinter sacre but produced a worse run and was against easier opposition. If he stayed on his feet would not have beaten me mole. Also last years queen mother was one of the weakest I’ve ever seen.

EWAY: At fishers cross- watching his last race in Ireland I believe he would have won if he jumped Atleast one hurdle and hadn’t raced wide all the way round. So IMO he should be around the same price as lieutenant colonel who is 10/1 and at fishers cross is 25/1

[sketti]

Back – hargam

Lay – douvan

Ew – monksland

[milbear0]

Back: Coneygree RSA 7/1. I believe coneygree will go for the RSA rather than the gold cup where he firmly sets the standard. Don Poli is the main threat for sure but at 7/1 thats great value against him as he will need to step up considerably to match Coneys impressive win over the weekend.

Lay: More of that 4/1. This one depends on wether he finds time for a prep run before cheltenham which is looking doubtful. Far too many negatives and imponderables to consider 4/1 without one.

Each way: Wounded Warrior NH Chase 8/1. Don poli looks likely to defect leaving a pretty sparse field regarding quality especially if the young master goes RSA. 3 places on arguably the best horse with a solid jockey booking ie Nina looks solid to me.

[Shack1]

Back – Annie Power – mortgage job.

Lay – Peace and Co

EW – Djakadam

[Ian]

Back – It has to be Sprinter Sacre. Everyone will be kicking themselves after the race. It’s that simple.

Lay – Silviniaco Conti. Twice he’s been fancied for the Gold Cup and twice he’s looked a likely winner 2/3 of the way through the race and twice he’s disappointed. He looked drunk on the run in last year, I don’t think he stays the trip up that hill at that course. 3/1, 7/2 whatever he is, is a lay.

Each Way – Irving. Paul Nicholls has long held this guy in very high regard and at times he’s shown signs that he could be top class but so far he has largely disappointed and failed to deliver what Nicholls clearly believes his talent deserves. He goes into the Champion hurdle lightly raced and unexposed. Everything will come together for him one day and it could just be at Cheltenham. At 40/1 he’s a huge price.

[Peruvian Chief]

Back – L’ami Serge in the Supreme is hopefully as above average as I think.

Lay – Don’t lay but I’m clearly positioned against Douvan with L’ami Serge so I’ll say him for the purposes of the thread.

E/W – Zarkander in the Stayers must go well.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Back – Sprinter Sacre. 11/4 Will win simple as.

Lay – the New one. 3/1 Will get outpaced at crucial stage of the race again then stay on towards then end for 3rd place.

EW – Ballycasey – Ryanair. 14/1 – Al ferof and dynaste out of the race. Champagne fever could go to the queen mother. Cue card severe doubts over.
I have don Cossack booked for one of the three places leaving 2 from Johns spirit, balder success, ma filleule, ballcasey, taquin and menorah.
Ballycasey has won 5/6 I think when running over around 2.5mile, falling in the other when looking the likely winner.

[Nathan Hughes]

Back – Faugheen big engine and can run them ragged.

Lay – The New One (place) Will try and keep tabs on Faugheen and blow up which the hold up horses can take advantage of.

Each Way – Glens Melody 6/1 if Annie runs she’ll place anyway at worse but if Annie goes elsewhere she be much shorter.

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[Layer32]

Back: Don Cossack

Lay: Douvan

E/W: Tell Us More

[Zamorston]

Back –

Coneygree

(RSA 7/1)

No surprise there then! Obviously a few doubts now whether he will go there or Gold Cup but if he does go the novice route I’ve absolutely no doubt whatsoever he will be too good, they just won’t get to him.

I’ve personally waited two plus years for these performances….right from the day at Cheltenham he was just done for a bit of toe over two and a half miles finishing 3rd to The New One and At Fishers Cross, who both went on to win at that years festival….It was obvious back then and on record from the yard that anything that he had achieved over hurdles was a massive bonus as he was always a very exciting chaser in the making..

Believe it or not, the year before last I actually got him introduced into the RSA market at quite an early stage! I contacted 5 bookmakers to give me a price, 2 never got back to me, 2 quoted me 20/1 and Stan James gave me 25/1, so I backed it at that and they were who introduced him that year…he obviously never made it there with the injury lay off…

I waited and waited and waited what seemed an eternity for news….even joined the Mark Bradstock page on facebook (I think there’s only me who posts on it!) desperately trying to find out news….I even contacted 2 or 3 stable staff off there trying to find out but they are obviously very well trained in not opening up to complete strangers, and in fairness why should they….as I say though, his recent performances are exactly what I thought he would be, he’s been brilliant and lived up to everything I always thought he would be, and he does another Denman in this END OF….!

Lay –

Faugheen

(Champion Hurdle 5/4)

Now this is sure to ruffle some feathers, but it’s just the one I would go for…..Let me say this though…..I’ve never layed a horse in my life and have no plans to do so in future….there’s every chance this will prove exactly why it’s a good idea for me not to…

I would be trying to look from a layers point of view though and with that I would be looking for a ‘shortie’ on the 1st day..

Annie Power I believe is an absolute steering job in the Mares, such a week race with no depth. she only has to turn up to win for me….Un De Sceaux is another I just cant see getting beat if he puts in a clean round, so I would be laying a horse ‘hoping’ for it to fall….not my idea of fun!

Douvan is the other short one on the day and one I’m sure many will be taking on as the Supreme has been a great race for layers of shorties in this in recent times….although I’m against him with L’ami Serge I’m not sure I’d have much else as good as Douvan running against him…I find it tough working out novice hurdlers, and which are the best the English or the Irish…with the recent successes of Chamoagne Fever and Vautour though I’d be wary of laying…

So that leaves me with Faugheen….YES….he could turn out to be an absolute wonderhorse and streak 10 lengths clear up the hill…he could be the best thing since Istabraq….until he does it against the very top performers in the division though I’m happy to take him on….as I say, I’m not a layer, but when laying you surely want to have as many good horses as possible running against the horse you are laying? Out of the 4 shorties then I’ve got The New One & Jezki, both proven at the top level in this division, so that is what swings it for me…

Each Way –

Champion Court

(Byrne Group Plate 20/1)

Hoping to have got the right race and hoping I’ve not got this wrong!

He’s turned up at every one of the last 4 festivals…starting with a 3rd in an Albert Bartlett to Bobs Worth…..a cracking 2nd to Sir Des Champs in a Jewson….a 5th to Cue Card in a Ryanair and a 7th last year in the race I hope he goes for again…

As well as those decent festival performance he has 3 course wins to his name showing a clear liking for the course….his last win coming at Cheltenham off a mark of (155)……last year his 7th in the Byrne Group Plate came off a mark of (157) eventually beaten around 17 lengths behind runaway winner Ballynagour…

Now I dont for one minute believe this horse to be as bad as his form has shown this season….I don’t believe he’s regressed that much….I’ve watched him closely this year as he’s always one I’ve backed…and I think there’s been a couple of real eye-catching runs, for various reasons in 5 runs under 5 different jockeys….

That apparent poor form though means he’s slid down the handicap to a very tasty looking (141) 16lbs lower than his mark in last years race and 14lbs less than his last winning mark….could be a very well handicapped horse for me at a course he clearly goes at….

[stevecaution]

Lays:-

Douvan, Holywell, Lord Windermere (Place), Many Clouds, Jezki, Mr Mole (Place), Vautour (Controversial), More Of That, Black Hercules, Parlour Games.

Back:-

I have backed Hargam 16/1, Road To Riches 12/1 and Ptit Zig 10/1 as my three main bets this year.

Each-way

Zarkandar was good each way when 12/1 but I can’t say he’s value at half the odds since I picked him.

Tea For Two at 20/1 for The Albert Bartlett is my next best each-way shout and he’s due out on Saturday, so hopefully he’ll show something.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Himself]

Back : Faugheen

My biggest wager of meeting. I cannot see this machine of a horse getting turned over. Steering job for Ruby !

Lay : Sprinter Sacre

The old adage about them not coming back rings so true, so bearing that in mind, I’m more than willing to lay the big horse.

Champagne Fever : With doubts surrounding the big two , I am certain Champagne Fever will be in first three.

Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

[The Young Fella]

BACK

OLBG Mares Hurdle – Glens Melody 6/1

Miss Reliable. 2nd to Quevega last year, rather unflattered by the result in the end as the only one to really serve it up to Quevega. Annie Power likely to go to the World Hurdle with More Of That sitting out.

LAY

Foxhunters’ Chase – Teaforthree

He still needs to be first or second in another hunter before Cheltenham. As an older horse who has had his problems, racing twice in quick succession on bad winter ground could easily leave him a little flat on the big day itself. The Irish hunters are a grizzled bunch and I think 11/4 is way too short.

Also, Nichols Canyon in whatever race he runs in. If you look at his flat form, he managed to get beaten in handicap off 85 when uncomfortable on good-to-firm ground. He was then kept to soft ground and improved to be 100+. Unless it comes up unseasonably soft in March, he could bomb out.

EACH-WAY

RSA Chase – Sausalito Sunrise 25/1.

Hopefully he runs. Better ground will help, as will the end-to-end gallop that a Coneygree or Kings Palace will serve up. I think he could emulate his owner’s Arkle winner Captain Chris by hitting a new level at the Festival.

[Author]

Posts