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In the Great Voltigeur, Yellowstone is very short at half the price of Lucarno given that Lucarno has achieved just as much at the distance. At 5/1, Lucarno for me in this
In the Intl, Notnowcato looks overpriced, even at 3/1. A 3-time Gr1 winner at the distance, incl this race last year, he again looks to be underestimated.
Dry overnight. This morning is cool, overcast with a light northerly (as it was all day yesterday) which if persisting will mean a headwind in the straight.
Enjoy what looks to be an excellent days sport.
Disagree with a couple of things here regarding the Voltigeur. I think Mahler will be fine back at 12f, looking at his Queens Vase again, he was always travelling strongly up with the pace and could be called the winner from before the home turn. More of a worry against this field is his form. The Queens Vase looks very weak in comparison to races like the Derby and King Edward VII, so at the prices I’ll be against him.
I can’t understand why Lucarno is 5/1. He holds Yellowstone (who proved nothing regards trip at Goodwood) on Derby and Ascot form yet is available at twice the price. He’s had a bit of a break since Newmarket where he proved himself against older horses and that form was made to look at least solid if not spectacular in the Geoffrey Freer at the weekend. I think Boscobel could be a sitting duck under a penalty and also think he’ll struggle to get his own way like he did at Ascot. Surely Mahler will be pressing him strongly.
Great minds again DJ, I like the cut of your jib
.Lucarno looks a decent e/w bet to me – I’d be sursprised if he’s out of the first 3. Holds Yellowstone not just on the Derby form but also on recent from on a line through Aqaleem at Goodwood – and Yellowstone was flattered by that that run imo. Also holds Boscobel at the revised weights since Royal Ascot. He’s had a nice break (was needed), trainer in good form. Only possible danger is Mahler, and to a lesser extent Macarthur (hence the e/w).
I can’t see Mahler being quite so effective over 1m 4f, especially around York, and am struggling to understand the 13/2 and bigger quoted about Boscobel. It does concern me slightly that Dettori, so often my nemesis, takes the ride, but if he sticks to what the horse knows best – i.e. get to the front and wind it up half a mile out – he should go very close. I certainly fancy him to confirm form with Lucarno at the very least.
Tajdeef is now a non-runner so I can’t see much touching Fast Company at 3.50, nor for that matter Septimus at 2.00, but Trezene is an interesting runner in the opener for Gary Moore.
This is undoubtedly a tough assignment for his British debut, but he seemed to have plenty of ability in France (pitched in at Listed level on a few occasions) and arrives having won his last two races, albeit claimers, in decent style. The 28s with Bluesq looks worth risking.
Elsewhere Asiatic Boy should relish the step up to 10f, assuming of course Spencer is astute enough to get him to the front early or sit just behind the pace. He didn’t finished too far behind in the Sussex last time and the 7/1 is too big for a horse of his calibre.
LGR,
The trainer doesn’t seem to share your assessment of Trezene.
"I’ve had him about six weeks and he’s shown very little at home: there’s no way he’s a 94 horse".
Is he putting us away ?
AP
I’m hoping High Treason can get me off to a flyer in the first. I have backed him to win at 12 on BF and e/w at 10/1. I think he is suited to the hustle and bustle of these big fields and won well over Course & Distance not long ago.
I am hoping that he will get the fast pace here that will see him at his best, so watch for him to sit mid div, and weave his way throug in the final few furlongs.
Mike
Well at least I beat the book
That Ryan Moore is an absolute star in my opinion, what a ride he gave that Galactic Star – he is a jock at the very top of his game in y opinion.
Mike
Was there really any need for that closing smart-arse remark, AP?
I have merely assessed the race, as have other people on this thread, and mentioned a horse I thought worthy of note. Maybe he isn’t a 94 horse, but sadly I’m not privy to details regarding his home work, never buy the Racing Post and don’t count Gary Moore as a close friend. Nor, unfortunately, are my probably mindless appraisals of races bullet proof.
Then again, maybe I’m just talking rubbish, maybe Gary Moore is secretly thinking ‘1-0 to me’…..
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