- This topic has 66 replies, 21 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Aragorn, If you believe Regime and Eagle Mountain were beaten fair and square then i fear for yer
<br>Not my words, the race reporters
Regime, a long way ahead of Charlie Farnsbarns when second at the Curragh, was rather geed up in the parade ring and ran below form, weakening in the final furlong after a short-lived effort on the far side of the pack
<br> REGIME’s connections were inclined to blame the ground and racing away from the principals for being soundly thrashed at Group 1
<br>Eagle Mountain was arguably the least impressive of the O’Brien quartet on looks but stood out on form, having appeared to relish broadly similar conditions when a runaway winner of the Beresford Stakes. Having been held up he rather laboured this time, and though he had to be switched for his effort, having momentarily found his path blocked, he was in no sense unlucky. Aidan O’Brien said afterwards that the ground here was deeper than at the Curragh, and that he had never really been able to use his stride in a bunched field. He is better than this,
(Edited by empty wallet at 12:52 pm on May 18, 2007)
Peeress should have won that race but for interference and getting boxed in (That happened twice to her last year) also the ground for tomorrow is going to very much in her favour.. I agree that Red Evie is a good price..
But back to Aqaleem, he had already run once before meeting Authorized (Debut) so had experience on his side. He then beat a pretty poor field in the lingfield trial… He stayed on well that day and to be honest he looks more of a leger horse, but if you think the price is wrong, then get on it..
Incidentally, what price do you think Authorized should be?
EW,
They often find reasons for well beaten favourites.. Especially when turned over by a 25/1 shot.. Do you honestly think they were unlucky and not beaten fair and square? Watch the race EW, don;t let someone else form your opinion. You can find it on Youtube, just search racing post trophy… And come back and tell me how exactly he was lucky, or those other horses weren’t.. He won easily, not all out, easily…
Iwatched the race, watched the replays and neither ran their races that day
<br>i also know what both horses are capable of, one is capable of running Teofilo to head, the other is capable of running second from a bias draw in Goffs million (with Finscael Beo behind him)
It’s all about opinion and imo at 6-4 yer having a larf, I’ll gladly lay this horse having the above mentioned horses on my side come Derby Day
Fair play… No doubt a complete outsider from a small stable will come from last to first proving us all wrong!! :biggrin: ;)
Best of luck
DJ,
Based on that logic. What price should Teslin be for the Derby and have you had your house on that horse in the Glasgow Stakes tonight?
:biggrin:
True – on the surface. Teslin ran his Derby that day at Newbury – was well backed – and clearly hasn’t trained on as well as Mark Johnston expected.
If we take Teslin as a yardstick, then both horses are Listed at best. The Craven appears sub-standard. My contention is that wherever the one finishes, the other will be thereabouts. The price differential is just too big.
Both improved after Newbury, though admittedly Authorized appears a quicker learner.
- Total Posts 17716
No surprise to hear that Frankie has been named to ride Authorise in the Derby – he was obviously impressed enough!<br>On a side note, if Paddy Powers are continuing their offer, any other runner can be backed with cash returned if Frankie wins, could be one of the most costly ricks ever made by a major bookmaker.<br>Also, as pointed out on another thread, the refund of 12 month’s fees by RUK – £30 dearer than Setanta – is the equivalent of backing Authorised at 5/1.<br>Is it Xmas already?
(Edited by reet hard at 3:58 pm on May 18, 2007)
Coral now go 11/10 Authorised, I thought the horse might drift out on the day, seems even the 6/4 is been snapped up. Probably be lucky to get 5/4 on the day.<br>I personaly wont back it at such short odds, will probably back Aqaleem e/w, but there is no doubting Authorised is the most likely winner.
The Dettori factor, Madman.
It used to be the same with the great Lester – and so it should be. Dettori is a shiny jewel in the wider shop window and he’ll get the uncommitted involved in the world’s finest horse race – the one that started it all off. That’s a good thing, and I applaud Sheikh Mohammed’s sporting decision to let him ride.
But.
As a punter who takes the game seriously – which I assume you are – would you seriously back a horse who is unproven at the trip, on undulations, on a graveyard of a track, who may need a plenty of cut to run to its best, who is facing several fancied opponents…
…and worse, ridden by a jockey with a race record of 0-14?
No. I’m still a layer as it stands.;) <br>
Satatistics damn statistics, I wouldn’t worry about Dettori’s record, Gordon Richards only rode one derby winner, Max.<br>Yes there is plenty of question marks, and Epsom is a law onto itself, but you have to admit he was undeniably impressive and if there is improvement in him as PCH says there is, he is by far the most likely winner. At the odds, no thanks, and Corals 11/10 is probably them running scared, not wanting to take any more on the horse.
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from Maxilon 5 on 1:50 pm on May 19, 2007[br] <br>As a punter who takes the game seriously – which I assume you are – would you seriously back a horse who is unproven at the trip, on undulations, on a graveyard of a track, who may need a plenty of cut to run to its best, who is facing several fancied opponents…
…and worse, ridden by a jockey with a race record of 0-14?
No. I’m still a layer as it stands.;)
Lay away max. <br>Most of the problems above apply to most the field; some to all. The Dettori factor is also meaningless, as he has simply never had a mount good enough to win previously.<br>On the bare facts, as they stand at the moment, he is head and shoulders above the rest of the likely field.
Unproven at the trip Max? Have you seen this horses breeding? He will get fourteen furlongs let alone twelve, he will improve on his mark to date for stepping up to twelve furlongs.
The ground was pretty much good at York, glided over it.
As for Dettori’s record – put him on Shergar he’d’ve won the Derby – Point being you can’t win a race if you don’t have the horse to do it.
I reckon Authorised will go off odds on.
You might all very well be right. It depends on how you look at it – there are many ways you can interpret a race and there are a lot of intangibles.
Just read about the Salford Mill gallop and about Chapple Hyams confidence. And nothing is forthcoming from the Tregoning camp. No point getting carried away with the laying idea. :biggrin:
York was a great meeting. I was there every day, bollin dereks lovely, he looked like he could go again after. Fingers crossed for easterby that he’s his next bollin eric. <br>Wasnt Anna Pavolva only favorite cos frankie was on her? if paul hanagan had been on her i doubt she’d have gone off on those odds.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.