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Off to see the Dante Thursday, so I have had a good look through the card.I have given the opening sprint the swerve, so straight to the 2.15.<br>Anna Pavlova is the probable winner, although this would be close to the bottom end of her stamina range at this level. Her ultimate target is the Irish St Leger over a distance which would suit her better. Echelon is likely to be inconvenienced by more rainfall, and may not be good enough anyway, whereas the more it rains, the more likely AP is to hose up.<br>The Dante looks at the mercy of Authorized. Adagio is over-rated imo, Raincoat may struggle on the ground and Proponent, though impressive, beat absolute trees lto. Authorized should win this doing handsprings, with the probable result that he will shorten even further for the Derby than his form would warrant.<br>In the Hambleton, it is difficult to split Very Wise and Wise Dennis, with a slight preference for the former at this distance on softer ground, though I may end up backing both if the prices are worthwhile.<br>The 2m 2f of the 4.25 should suit Goodwood Stakes winner Alrida down to the ground, and though missing a couple of seasons since, has already shown enough since returning to be of interest here.<br>If all the above fail, then Dundry could be the saviour in the getting out stakes. Won this 2 years ago on soft, and showed with an unlucky lto run at Newcastle that he still has what it takes.<br>It all sounds simple in theory, but if it’s a bog by the 2nd race, I may just back Anna Pavlova and Authorized, and hopefully repair to the bar for the rest of the day with a smug grin.:biggrin: <br>
Authorized was a shade bigger than evens last night on BF… For me its buying money.. I think he’ll win this easily. I’ve had a good bet on him.
Adagio just isn;t going to be quick enough or good enough and whilst raincoat and proponent are unexposed they have to step up massively on what they’ve done before. Also, not sure who saw the interview with Peter Chappell-Hyam. Whilst he didn;t explicitly say as much he obviously thinks this horse is the real deal… He expects Authorised to win and so do I.
Have a nice day, Reet, I hope the rain stays away and that you go through the card………….oh! could you have a look at Hogmaneigh in the first, one that might win a decent sprint this year.
Colin
Authorised has the best overall form, but I would be worried that Adagio could give him a fright if he reproduces his Craven form. Tactics should be interesting as both of these have shown they are able to quicken up – it might come down to which horse gets the best ride.
If Wise Dennis reproduces his Chester form on this very different track, he’ll win. He was running away from a good class field on Saturday at Ascot and is very well handicapped today. Banker material provided the price doesn’t collapse.
I like Bollin Derek in the last race. He’s a relentless galloper who enjoys a bit of cut in the ground and he should give a very good account, although he’s likely to be favourite.
Hope the weather is nicer than here in Baden Baden!!
Some decent racing , however,my only interest in York is PRIDE OF NATION in the 3.15,looked progressive last season and looks the type to carry on through the ranks , track,going will suit and a tactical race won`t effect him,the 5-2 WISE DENNIS looks ridiculous,doubt he will get the end to end gallop he requires, Cumani stable are starting to show the right signs so a bit of the 11-2 is in order!!
Good luck
Personally, the Dante is a "watcher", as there are too many ifs and buts  to make Authorized a lay-down, huge bet , certainty. He put up in a great performance at Newbury last year on heavy but often races run on such ground are misleading.
Also, today’s pace – as usual – is of vital importance. Proponent could be the one to lead, as he has "made all" before, but how fast will they go ? If the race turns into a falsely-run affair, as often happens in small fields,  I can see Adagio being a danger, as he enjoyed the more slowly run Craven more than he did the frenetic Guineas.
The Fillies and Mare race looks, to my eyes, to be a toss up between Anna Pavlova and Echelon, with the ground probably being the deciding factor. AP looks to be favored by the soft, but how soft will the ground actually be ? Amadeus Wolf ran 1min 10secs for 6 furlongs yesterday, which just plainly isn’t a flat-track, soft ground time. A lot of rain will have to have fallen on York since yesterday afternoon for the ground to now be genuinely soft. <br>
(Edited by ClintM at 1:36 pm on May 17, 2007)
Chris Richardson of Cheveley Park thinks the further Echelon went at Newmarket the more she was rallying. I am not so sure. Anyway a line through Topatoo makes Anna Pavlova the clear pick [nap].<br>A couple of horses at huge prices are interesting in the first, Connect is a general 50/1 shot which to me is huge, if you look back to Ascot 7th Oct 2006, his form ties in very closely with a lot of these who are much shorter in the betting, and with 2 course wins and trained by Mark Tompkins who has 98.25 level stakes profit at York, so at 50/1, I have to have a bit e/w. In the same race Northern Empire general 25/1 is also worth a speculative e/w punt, his form of 2 year ago is the best any of these have to offer, ie second to Ivan Denisovitch in the July stakes, he is the only one in the field who holds a group 2 entry, which suggests Brian Meehan still has faith in the horse.<br>Yes I know a lot of these sprinters beat each other every other week, but at 50/1 and 25/1 generally, their surely worth a small e/w wager.
Incidently there is still 16 runners, but for how long ?.
(Edited by madman marz at 11:18 am on May 17, 2007)<br>
(Edited by madman marz at 11:23 am on May 17, 2007)
Authorized sets the standard, though he doesn’t have as much in hand over Adagio as what the odds suggest. Proponent looks a colt witth bags of scope and potential that I am sure will be up to holding his own in pattern company. He isn’t actually conceding that much in terms of experience, raced as often as Raincoat and Authorized so at around 5/1, I think he’s worth an interest.
DJ, on a line through Eagle Mountain (Different ground conditions I know but EM had good heavy ground form prior to the trophy) Adagio has plenty to find in my opinion. Particularly as Authorised quickened and won as he liked.
Proponent would be the biggest danger for me but as he has a lot to prove i’d rather have Authorised.
Did Eagle Mountain run to the same level in the Racing Post Trophy as he did when winning the Beresford and when fifth in the Guineas. Most unlikely imo.
Do like Very Wise in the 3.15. Thought he won the lincoln very comfortably indeed. Conditions look spot on and York is not the worst place in the world for those up with the pace. No worries (as Kerrin would probably say) about the connections either
My problem with Wise Dennis is that he seems to have been aimed at this as an afterthoughT (maybe). Not always keen on those making quick re-appearences
Dante is one to watch…
Proponent is the one for me in the Dante (Authorized isn’t as good a horse as many think in my eyes) and Wise Dennis should take all the beating.
I was rather disappointed by the ride given to Knot In Wood in the opener. He had form last season with Rising Shadow, who ran well beind Amadeus Wolf yesterday, and he looked as though he should go close. He was settled midfield early and never really put into the race, but ran on well under hands and heels to finish a head off the places.
One to back next time I think.
Knot In Wood will win a big handicap somewhere this season. He was given a very tender ride there, Moriarty not picking up the stick at all. Hogmaneigh also shaped as if back in top form and is another to be with in the short term.
I’m surprised everyone was so keen on Anna Pavlova. That horse needs soft ground. Despite the fact that people keep going on about the rain it isn’t soft at York. Topatoo was a good bet today.
Looking forward to the Dante. Authorised has the form in the bag and should win on the back of that but I’ve been looking forward to seeing Proponent all winter and I’m hoping he turns out to be the real deal.
Was impressed with Raincoat at Epsom too.
Can’t have Adagio, he’s around a 110 horse IMO, shouldn’t be good enough and I don’t see why he should improve at ten furlongs.
Authorised – Now that WAS impressive. Will only get better over further as well. Cracking run from Raincoat. Proponent disappointing.
Hello DJ,
Agree that Knot in Wood SHOULD win a big H’Cap this year, but it should have done last year! :)
Unfortunately, it hates getting his head in front. Let’s hope the trainer has some fresh tactics this season to avoid yet another short head defeat that were so prevelant last season.
Maybe the"tender" ride today is part of an overall strategy to eventually introduce a new style of racing that will lead to victory…and beyond !!!!
regards,
doyley
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