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.
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It never ceases to amaze me how the clerks of the courses come up with their official going statements.
The official going for yesterdays meeting at Ascot was <b>GOING: GOOD (Stands’ side 8.0, Centre 7.9, Far Side 8.2, Round 7.7)</b>
My going calculations showed that the round course was riding <b>good to firm with firm patches</b> at <b>+0.40s/f</b> per furlong, so on a conservative note the round course was riding <b>25lb</b> per furlong faster than the Ascot’s official going statement.
Two races to look at from yesterday, were the <b>3.45</b> (fast by 0.33s) and the <b>4.20</b> (fast by 0.54s), now compare them against the times from the straight course.
I wouldn’t be surprised it there was a new course record in the <b>King George</b>, mind you I have been wrong before <!– s:shock: –>
<!– s:shock: –><b>Turf going allowance table:</b>
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/fSpeed figures at
0.00s/f
per furlong (before going allowance correction)
02:00 Lilyfire 7f 0.00
61
02:35 Stormy Paradise 6f 0.00
61
03:10 Broxbourne 2m 0.00
72
03:45 Zibelina 1m 0.00
103
04:20 Sennockian Star 1m2f 0.00
104
04:50 Gabbiano 5f 0.00
88
Pace figures at 0.00s/f (+0.10 is normal)
02:00 Lilyfire 7f-25
02:35 Stormy Paradise 6f
-24
03:10 Broxbourne 2m
-13
03:45 Zibelina 1m
27
04:20 Sennockian Star 1m2f
28
04:50 Gabbiano 5f
8
Speed figures after going allowance correction
+0.15s/f
(straight) and
+0.40s/f
(round).
02:00 Lilyfire 7f 0.15
49
02:35 Stormy Paradise 6f 0.15
56
03:10 Broxbourne 2m 0.40
42
03:45 Zibelina 1m 0.40
64
04:20 Sennockian Star 1m2f 0.40
76
04:50 Gabbiano 5f 0.15
80
Pace figures after going allowance correction.
02:00 Lilyfire 7f
-13
02:35 Stormy Paradise 6f
-12
03:10 Broxbourne 2m
-26
03:45 Zibelina 1m
14
04:20 Sennockian Star 1m2f
16
04:50 Gabbiano 5f
21
Even just using the RP standards the ground times out at Good. I’m not seeing how you got the ground fast.
Zibellina’s race for example was run just a bit faster than RP standard. I would expect a horse of that level of abilty to be running faster than standard on Good ground as it did.
Even just using the RP standards the ground times out at Good. I’m not seeing how you got the ground fast.
Zibellina’s race for example was run just a bit faster than RP standard. I would expect a horse of that level of abilty to be running faster than standard on Good ground as it did.
Slowhand,
Although it would be possible on Good ground for a horse of Zibellina’s quality to put up a time 0.33 secs faster than standard – they did not seem to go that fast early. So it’s reasonable to believe had the 3:45 been evenly paced it would’ve been a faster time; suggesting firmer ground than the official.
In the 4:20 Grade 2 handicap Shennokian Star ran 0.54 secs faster than standard, despite the 4 runner race seemed to be truly run with 3 of the 4 normally front/prominent runners.In my opinion (taking in to account pace in the races) I agree with TBB that the going yesterday was more like good-firm than good. May or may not be enough for a track record, but if they don’t get any rain you can also expect the ground to have got quicker today. Possibly on the firm side of good-firm.
Value Is EverythingFair point Ginger, but even SS’s race would point to only a bit faster than Good. I’m sure it will get quicker as it dries quick there but aren’t course records that stand now only since they rebuilt the course?
Fair point Ginger, but even SS’s race would point to only a bit faster than Good. I’m sure it will get quicker as it dries quick there but aren’t course records that stand now only since they rebuilt the course?
Yes Slowhand, track records are only since the rebuild, but enough good horses have run the course for them to mean something (going-wise). I’d say the going yesterday was genuinely good-firm, with today at least verging on firm. ie Good-firm, with firm places or even Firm, good-firm in places. Not as the official Good-firm Good in places. I doubt whether there are any "good" places today.
Value Is EverythingThe RP standards must be set at Good to Firm here by the looks of it Ginger and not Good. Not unusual for them, its the same at Newmarket. The first race today is a very quick time.
Today’s ground is significantly faster than yesterdays, a rough calculation would be 0.22 per furlong faster.
I wouldn’t be surprised it there was a new course record in the
King George
,
Correct Sir.
Well spotted TBB.Were bookmakers betting on a track record?
Value Is EverythingThought I’d already answered your question Indocine.
Although it would be possible on Good ground for a horse of Zibellina’s quality to put up a time 0.33 secs faster than standard – they
did not seem to go that fast early
. So it’s reasonable to believe
had the 3:45 been evenly paced it would’ve been a faster time; suggesting firmer ground than the official
.
In the 4:20 Grade 2 handicap Shennokian Star ran 0.54 secs faster than standard, despite the 4 runner race seemed to be truly run with 3 of the 4 normally front/prominent runners.In my opinion (
taking in to account pace in the races
) I agree with TBB that the going yesterday (
Friday
)was more like
good-firm
than good. May or may not be enough for a track record, but if they don’t get any rain you can also expect the ground to have got quicker today (Saturday). Possibly on the firm side of good-firm.
Value Is EverythingIf
Novellist
had set the course record on good ground say at
+0.05s/f
per furlong, his speed figure would have been around
139
up there with legend
Secretariat
when he won the Belmont Stakes in 1973, and Andy Beyer gave him a revised speed figure of
139
As I have not been smoking any
Rastafarian old holborn
, I had the straight course yesterday at
+0.30s/f
(good to firm) and left the round course at
+0.40s/f
(good to firm), this could be the reason why
Novellist
took 10 lengths off the old course record, the quick ground helped him.
Instead of a speed figure of
139
I gave Novellist a modest one of only
111
It will be interesting to see what Dave Edwards said the going allowance was, but we have to wait 3 days for him to catch up.
<!– s:shock: –>
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