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Wokingham 2009

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  • #11825
    Our Vic
    Member
    • Total Posts 99

    Loads of handciap lovers out there, so thouht i’d put this up.

    4.25 Royal Ascot
    Wokingham Handicap
    2 pts e/w High Standing, Jimmy Styles, Asset.

    Rock Of Rochelle: Not had that many chances and excelled himself when finishing on the heels of some decent opposition in a Group 2 at York on reappearance (100-1); Went backwards last time out over 7f in Group 3 at Leopardstown but wouldn’t completely rule out of it, esp as he does look on a fair mark.

    Asset: Triple Listed winner up to 1m who twice ran really well at this meeting for Richard Hannon, second in the Jersey in 2006 and beaten less than 1l when third in the Golden Jubilee two years ago; Won listed contest on return to UK and then cruised up to the 2f pole in John o Gaunt Stakes behind Main Aim (Queen Anne 4th) , before not fully lasting home; Dropped back in trip, could well have a big chance here.

    Zidane: Been a factor in the best sprint handicaps the only twice he´s contested them, done by a low draw when favourite for this race two years ago but superb effort to nail it on the line in the Stewards´ Cup at Goodwood next time; Always been knocking on Group class but made some rather disappointing efforts and although this is the first time he´s run in a handicap since (2007) and only 5lb higher, does look up against it.

    Brave Prospector: Showed what a smart sort he is over 6f on quick ground when beating decent field at York a year ago but didn’t go on from that in varied company after; Has a touch of class and there are worse outsiders but off since September and this looks tough.

    Sohraab: Trainer had lots of success with his sprinters but this one fallen slightly short of the most competitive level so far, even allowing for cracking effort against Genki over C&D in September 2007; Came down late and hard to close down Strike Up The Band at Chester before thoroughly respectable 4th to JJ The Jet Plane in Windsor listed race latest; His mark seems stiff at the moment but wouldn’t rule out at big price, esp if his draw works out.

    Beaver Patrol: Seemed to have had his chances at this level but nearly pulled a big one out of the fire when second in this race 12 months ago; picked up a nice prize in Dubai during February but even higher mark here to defy, and does look exposed.

    Knot In Wood: Given fantastic value over the years, things not gone his way a couple of times at this level but still useful efforts to be fourth in this race last year and third in the Stewards´ Cup in 2007, both off 4lb lower; Still running well and promising rider is positive booking, but this looks too competitive for him these days.

    Tamagain: Excelled himself when fifth in this race 12 months ago but this never been a good race for front-runners ; Not exactly well handicapped either, and hard to fancy.

    Jimmy Styles: Had problems and only lightly raced, meaning we effectively haven’t seen the best of him for last 2 seasons; Created a fine impression when landing 5f handicap at Newmakret well; has potential, yard in form and has proved himself over C&D, and with perfect draw can continue progression here.

    Nota Bene: Been difficult to keep right and lightly raced for his age; beaten long way in this race the last two years (9-1 here 12 months ago); Better than that and could spring a surprise but he holds few secrets from handicapper.

    Prohibit: Progressive young sprinter on turf last spring but it didn’t lead to much, with and without headgear, and only subsequent win came on the AW in October; Looks over rated at this mark and that not the sort of profile you want for a race like this.
    Caracinetto: Tough mare who stands her racing really well but soul laid bare from handicapping point of view; Won’t be good enough.

    Exclamation: Smart 2 yr olds who raced only 3 times at 3; Seemed smart based on 1st 2 outguns but ran too badly to consider here last time, even allowing for new tactic possibly unsettling him.
    Advanced: Counts for good deal that he’s already been successful at this level, landing the Ayr Gold Cup in 2007, but really ought to have a better strike-rate considering how often he’s looked well handicapped; Disappointing when beaten in conditions company latest sand has a lot to prove.

    Markab: Ran a couple of decent races over this trip in France three years
    ago but raced over further on turf since; Should improve for the drop to 6f after going well for a long way in Victoria Cup , but front running style doesn’t augur well.

    Evens And Odds: Started the season on a decent mark and quick to take advantage, hacked up his second start for new trainer at Newmarket last month, even if the opposition didn’t amount to much on the day; That race has been a good trial for this in recent times ,three of the last nine winners having contested that prize and looks to have a bit up his sleeve; Major player.

    Orpsie Boy: Gone well here in the past but not well handicapped since running out of his skin in a Listed Newmarket event two starts ago; That rise could leave him out of it.

    Pearly Wey: Will have to be something else to land this after a significant break; Useful at a lesser level, winning the Stewards´ Sprint at Goodwood the last two years, but not done enough to think he can pull off a better event like this.

    Genki: Fast heading towards the top of the sprint handicap tree in late summer of 2007, winning only two starts over C&D, but not the same horse in his two runs in 2008, out of action after May; Came back with good 5th behind useful rivals including JJ The Jet Plane when 5th in Windsor Listed race ; Can be expected to reverse form with Sohrraab as he is much better off, and as that run will have him spot on, he should go close.

    Joesph Henry: Placed in some competitive if lower-grade handicaps the last two years but murdered his handicap mark when winning over 7f in Ireland during April; Exposed on that now and not up to taking this.
    High Standing: Trainer had a couple who did well at this level last year but this one could be better than either of them having made strong impression in relatively minor company both starts for new yard this year, at Doncaster and Goodwood; Progressing all the time, top jockey booked and sure to go well back on more conventional track.

    Striking Sprit: Struggled in handicaps last year but no obvious fluke about his winning debut for new yard over Jimmy Styles here in May; However looks to have regressed since then even though he is of great interest here back at sprinting handicaps.

    Osiris Way: Record of stealthy progress throughout career but this so much more competitive than any of his three wins during 2008; Better off with High Standing for that but that’s a track where he regularly excels and he was very easily beaten.

    Baby Strange: Narrow winner of a lesser Newcastle event last month but nothing in his record to suggest he´ll have the firepower for race like this under a penalty; Looking very exposed even at bottom of weights.

    Van Bossed: Just about his best effort when chasing home the original favourite for this, Laddies Poker Two, over C&D off this mark last September; Unplaced all 3 stars since and shown nothing to suggest he can win this, although it’s not impossible for him to do much better here, and he does have a nice draw.

    Soap Wars: Versatile regarding surfaces but best form on the AW so far and those types have a good record here, so has chance; Irish horses have he had their say in this, and mildly progressive, so has place squeak.

    Kaldoun Kingdom: Ran well in defeat over C&D last August but had his chances in easier races than this and highly tried today on ground which is likely to be plenty quick enough.

    VERDICT: Only Selhurstparkflyer in 1997 has struck for horses aged over six since the race’s inception in 1896, giving the sign that we should stick to four and five-year-olds that have won nine of the last ten runnings. Another strong trend is that no winner was set to carry less than 8st 11lbs before jockeys’ claims for over a decade. The best of late has been the Stan James Handicap at Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day won by Evens And Odds as three of the last nine winners contested that prize. The Investec Distinctive Stakes over six furlongs that brings Derby Day to a close and the Victoria Cup are also worth bearing in mind. Three of the last 12 winners contested the sprint at Epsom won by Baldemar whereas two of the last eight Wokingham winners ran in the Victoria Cup won back in May. Also, 11 out of the last 12 winners were in the 1st 4 last time out. Based on that, JIMMY STYLES seems to have everything wanted IN A Wokingham winner and has the plum draw in stall 1. The same goes for High Standing. Also, it would’nt be a surprise to see Asset run out of his sking over a trip that suits him.

    #235443
    The Humpty Dancer
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    Another great post Vic!

    I’m on Jimmy Styles here think you summed the race up quite nicely to be honest and I hope he has the progression left in him to make the most of his plum draw.

    Backed him to win at 7.6 on Betfair this morning.

    #235450
    Our Vic
    Member
    • Total Posts 99

    Thank for that Thehumptyfandnacer, hoping it comes in for you. He’s got plum draw.

    #235477
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Enjoyed the preview Our Vic and glad you said something positive about my fancy Asset.

    Record at Ascot 2 runs, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
    Good-to-Firm 8 runs, 3 wins, 2 2nds
    June 3 runs 1 win, 1 2nd, 1 3rd
    At 6f 8 runs, 2 wins, 2 2nds, 1 3rd

    Great bet IMHO.

    Martin

    #235508
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Haven’t checked your previous ‘previews’ but the comments for each horse are just a copy of Spotlight (Emily Weber) in the Racing Post?

    #235525
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Yes, stilvi, it would appear it is.

    Poor show, Our Vic.

    #235526
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Yup, they sure are, Stilvi. It’s a bit obvious what he’s written himself because every third word is spelt incorrectly. I’ve PM’d him at least twice about this and for some reason he doesn’t even read them.

    OurVic – you cannot use other people’s work without giving credit! And check your Inbox, ffs.

    #235535
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Don’t read "Spotlight" as not overly keen on it tbh but this Weber girl seems to have written some decent stuff here :)

    #235554
    shabby
    Member
    • Total Posts 638

    Given the bias against pace i have payed a few forecasts with High Standing, Zidane, Prohibit, Pearly Wey, Genki, Asset

    #235558
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Think the Irish horse Soap Wars has a shot – AW form often translates to the turf at Ascot so had a couple of quid on him too :)

    #235559
    shabby
    Member
    • Total Posts 638

    Late runners again…wee forecast landed :lol:

    #235567
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    You’re Dangerous :lol:

    Unbelievable confidence by Ryan Moore. Great ride!

    #235577
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    For the firstt time its been easy to find the winners in the big handicap races for a change, two horses who are not really handicappers.

    Asset though ran a great race under a big weight.

    On a side note Caracciola won again making it three wins in a row on the Flat. What a servant this horse has been.

    #235584
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8393

    Caracciola’s win was the perfect end to a wonderful weeks racing. What a star!

    #235618
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    For the firstt time its been easy to find the winners in the big handicap races for a change, two horses who are not really handicappers.

    Asset though ran a great race under a big weight.

    On a side note Caracciola won again making it three wins in a row on the Flat. What a servant this horse has been.

    Well done if you got both winners but I would never describe a 30 runner Ascot handicap as easy. I don’t have the statistics to hand for favourites but I suspect they are not good.

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