- This topic has 75 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
Just seen thread good luck with it mate
While i think DAWN APPROACH will win i think MARS be the biggest danger this horse was number one 2yo in yard last year.Was going to run in racingpost trophy untill bad weather was on course.
Horses like CONDUIT,MASTERY,ARCTIC COSMOS,GHANNATI all won classics after a AW win so i think he be in 1st 3Thanks Darren. Mars is a horse i like, but i’m not convinced that he will be ready for a big race this weekend, and it might just be that it’s a prep run for the Derby itself, or wherever his future is. I’ve had a few quid for the derby, so if he’s in the top 3 as you think he will be, then i’d sure be content with that….as long as it’s not a distant 3rd ! I’ve not got much of an opinion on O’Briens horses, as i don’t believe anything the guy says. I don’t want to fall into the trap of thinking every horses of his is the next big thing. I think due to the breeding aspect of racing, either Colombo or Vancouver will be more ready to run a race, but i don’t think either of them will be good enough to trouble the front two in the betting, and if Van Der Neer finished 3rd i wouldn’t be surprised.
Am on MARS at 25/1 for derby and TELESCOPE at 40/1 they my bets in derby.
Any thoughts on the oaks i like LIBER NAUTCUIS
And tips today i like SOVEREIGN DEBT and SIR GRAHAM WADE
Am on MARS at 25/1 for derby and TELESCOPE at 40/1 they my bets in derby.
Any thoughts on the oaks i like LIBER NAUTCUIS
And tips today i like SOVEREIGN DEBT and SIR GRAHAM WADE
Yeah, for the Oaks i’ve already backed Hot Snap a couple of times, so i might not know until Sunday at the earliest if she’s a prospect for a mile and a half or not. As for Liber Nauticus, i simply don’t have enough evidence to form a strong opinion, other than i don’t have her down as favourite for the Oaks as she has only ran once as a 2y/o, but she was impressive once she picked up. She has quite a bit to find through another Stoute filly called Waila. It’s difficult to form an opinion on a horse who has only ran once, and has yet to run at 3. I’m not much of a fan of Telescope’s price either. That horse is the falsest of favourites. I wouldn’t be suprised if he didn’t even run in the Derby. I watched his last 2y/o run and ic an’t see what the fuss is about. I looked at a couple of Ascot races and couldn’t find anything worth backing. I will have a look again and if i like anything i will put it up. You certainly know how to get pick big prices.
The swings and roundabouts of some of my bets continues with backing a horse i already have, except for a different race. I have already backed Mars as a derby back up. If he runs well tomorrow he could appear in the derby as a number of O’Brien horses could. Of course, if he comes up short of stamina and runs a good race in a good enough derby, then he may be aimed at the Eclipse, just like Rip was. He’s available at a bigger price, but it wasn’t available when i looked yesterday. I like him and will be keen to see how he does tomorrow. I certainly like him more than i like either of the Henrys.
Eclipse Mars £20 @ 16/1
– £55
Slight change of plan. I didn’t want to back anything else, but i was thinking about this and created conflict in my mind which invariably ends in ‘what if she wins and you didnt…".
Snow Queen £20@ 25/1
-£75
Same old boring story. Can’t find a race to even back one, so went for the Ascot Gold Cup with Simenon. He has course form and will stay, and with question marks over a few others, i’ve opted for him as one of two i’m targetting this race with. Flippin derby can’t come quick enough.
Simenon £20 @16/1
– £95
There’s confidence in Tickled Pink for the York Stakes. She won easily last time, and although i don’t do many sprints, progression will make sure she isn’t far away as long as she breaks out of the stalls and all the rest of it. It obviously helps that the trainer is positive about her chances.
Tickled Pink £20 @ 11/2
-£115
I hope Ricky Burns wins tonights fight, but Gonzalez is 4/1 and is capable of landing some tough shots. Although i’ll be cheering Ricky to win and he’s on his home patch, i think it could be a tough match for him.
Gonzalez £15 @4/1
-£130
The derby has become a race for me that i almost have to win to inject some more bets into this thread, or more that i’d be able to otherwise. It’s not end game if i don’t, as i have a couple of ante posts out there. I thought it was O’Briens cluster of runners versus Dawn Approach, until something else cropped up that i watched. I couldn’t be more impressed with him, and if he’s still around 10 or 12s in a couple of days i’ll have another bet. He has become the horse who let’s just say i think is quite capable. I’ll get off the fence…..i see him as my number one chance. If i’ve read too much into the Telescope gallop and it comes back to haunt me, then i’ll get what i deserve. I didn’t know it was only a 7f gallop.
Chopin £50 @ 12/1 NRNB
Some folk think this is a weak derby, but to me it will probably the strongest since Sea the Stars won, at least. These two foreign raiders look better than some of the runners that have filled the places in recent years. I think Ocovango(i think he will go off 2nd fav) and Chopin have
big chances
. Fabre seems confident. Add to the mix Dawn Approach and O’Briens runners, then it’s all set up for a much better standard of race than some would have you believe. My main bet for this is the German horse. I can’t say Dawn Approach worries as he would be a good result, but i think Ocovango is a bigger danger. Ginger, if i was running a book it probably wouldn’t be as generous as something you’d make up, but i’d say Dawn Approach 6/4, Ocovango 7/2, Battle of Marengo 11/2, Chopin 13/2
Ruler of the World 10/1 12s bar.Chopin £20 @ 14/1
-£200
Some folk think this is a weak derby, but to me it will probably the strongest since Sea the Stars won, at least. These two foreign raiders look better than some of the runners that have filled the places in recent years. I think Ocovango(i think he will go off 2nd fav) and Chopin have
big chances
. Fabre seems confident. Add to the mix Dawn Approach and O’Briens runners, then it’s all set up for a much better standard of race than some would have you believe. My main bet for this is the German horse. I can’t say Dawn Approach worries as he would be a good result, but i think Ocovango is a bigger danger. Ginger, if i was running a book it probably wouldn’t be as generous as something you’d make up, but i’d say Dawn Approach 6/4, Ocovango 7/2, Battle of Marengo 11/2, Chopin 13/2
Ruler of the World 10/1 12s bar.Chopin £20 @ 14/1
-£200
I wouldn’t take less than 10/1 Ocovango, he’s done nothing whatever to warrant being less. I’ll be shocked if Dawn Approach isn’t odds on as the Lemmings will surely be out in force. Based on his class the punters think he has magic stamina beans in his genes. I think it’s BS myself, all horses will get tired eventually but you can’t beat a good "Trainer is bullish" headline to kick start the betting fever.
I am going against Wentworth for today’s bet. Surprised to see him in handicap company on his debut and market vibes have not been great this morning, so Prodigality at 2/1 for me.
Good luck with the composer!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Some folk think this is a weak derby, but to me it will probably the strongest since Sea the Stars won, at least. These two foreign raiders look better than some of the runners that have filled the places in recent years. I think Ocovango(i think he will go off 2nd fav) and Chopin have
big chances
. Fabre seems confident. Add to the mix Dawn Approach and O’Briens runners, then it’s all set up for a much better standard of race than some would have you believe. My main bet for this is the German horse. I can’t say Dawn Approach worries as he would be a good result, but i think Ocovango is a bigger danger. Ginger, if i was running a book it probably wouldn’t be as generous as something you’d make up, but i’d say Dawn Approach 6/4, Ocovango 7/2, Battle of Marengo 11/2, Chopin 13/2
Ruler of the World 10/1 12s bar.Chopin £20 @ 14/1
-£200
I wouldn’t take less than 10/1 Ocovango, he’s done nothing whatever to warrant being less. I’ll be shocked if Dawn Approach isn’t odds on as the Lemmings will surely be out in force. Based on his class the punters think he has magic stamina beans in his genes. I think it’s BS myself, all horses will get tired eventually but you can’t beat a good "Trainer is bullish" headline to kick start the betting fever.
I am going against Wentworth for today’s bet. Surprised to see him in handicap company on his debut and market vibes have not been great this morning, so Prodigality at 2/1 for me.
Good luck with the composer!!
Fair play Stevie, but i wouldn’t just be confident about a big run in a derby merely because the trainer said so. I have saw both the German and French horses run, and to me they were both impressive in their respective races. Once i have my thoughts, i then listen out to see if anyone can add any positives to them. In the interviews yesterday there were plenty of good vibes, not just from the trainer but also from others who were there. Fabre didn’t seem overly concerned about the favourite, which may be significant as he won this race with Por Moi in a recent renewal. The German horse won over an extended mile the last time out. It took him time to rev up, but he won comfortably in the end, albeit against moderate oposition. I’ll admit the German guineas didn’t look strong, but the horse he beat by 8L went on to finish 2nd that day, and ahead of Tawhid on soft ground which to me is decent form for a horse who will see out the trip, and who wants good running ground. I think it’s a bit early to say that it won’t be a good renewal. There is improvement to come from both, and i wouldn’t be laying either of them. If you laid 10s on Ocovango, you’d have alot of friends. Any luck recently ?
Chopin £20 @ 14/1
Fair play Stevie, but i wouldn’t just be confident about a big run in a derby merely because the trainer said so. I have saw both the German and French horses run, and to me they were both impressive in their respective races. Once i have my thoughts, i then listen out to see if anyone can add any positives to them. In the interviews yesterday there were plenty of good vibes, not just from the trainer but also from others who were there. Fabre didn’t seem overly concerned about the favourite, which may be significant as he won this race with Por Moi in a recent renewal. The German horse won over an extended mile the last time out. It took him time to rev up, but he won comfortably in the end, albeit against moderate oposition. I’ll admit the German guineas didn’t look strong, but the horse he beat by 8L went on to finish 2nd that day, and ahead of Tawhid on soft ground which to me is decent form for a horse who will see out the trip, and who wants good running ground. I think it’s a bit early to say that it won’t be a good renewal. There is improvement to come from both, and i wouldn’t be laying either of them. If you laid 10s on Ocovango, you’d have alot of friends. Any luck recently ?
You never know but I just don’t think the French and German horses look very solid.
I have had a bout of seconditis recently. Same again today with Prodigality chinned on the line by a 25/1 shot. Would have been a lucky winner though as Wentworth should have hosed in but never got daylight. Hoping Secret Gesture wins to turn the tide next week. Tomorrow and Sunday it’s Reckless Abandon and Just The Judge for me singles and a double on them. Have a good one.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done on Just the Judge, Stevie. There’s not much for me to say about the Derby. I’ve got a bet for tomorrow, but i didn’t even study the race. In the context of this thread, the bet is a lifejacket with holes in it.
Prix Du Jockey Club Intello £40 @ 9/4
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.