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I hope to obviously get a few winners, just to keep me going for the flat season. It’s not reverse psychology when i say my expectations are low. Enough of all that anyway, and onto the gambling side of it all. Right, i’ve went with the Derby, and picked two selections with very little imagination. Mars at 8/1 and Battle of Marengo at 14/1. I’ll try going with reasoning just now for the sake of the thread. I have reservations about their Racing Post winner, and not just recently. The trainer has traditionally had a strong Derby hand, and whilst i might not have the winner, i would like to think i will have something to watch on Derby day with chances. That was the reason for backing both, as i simply don’t know enough to back one, but for talks sake i had slightly more on BOM for the sake of this thread. Mars was a bit of a talking horse, and his debut is there for all to see. BOM has won his last 3 races in varying condition, and he stuck to the task really well once the penny dropped. His form with Trading Leather does him no harm at all. What he does in the gallops is anybodys guess. The British form can sort itself out when it wants. Tomorrow in the Doncaster mile i backed Gabriel at 4/1. It was either Faheys or the Bell horse, and with the trainer saying his are going well and the horse is quite forward, i opted for him.
Derby – Mars £15 @8/1 Battle Of Marengo £20@ 14/1
Doncaster Mile – Gabriel £10 @ 4/1
Good luck LW,
If I was backing one of the O’Brien horses for the Derby it would be Battle Of Merengo.
Will keep an eye on your thread.
Value Is EverythingCheers Ginge. Have you anything mind for the Derby ? Battle Of Marengo runs tomorrow, so he is one to watch. Gabriel got there first, so i’ll have a go at the 330. I’m not big on sprints, but Our Jonathon and Hitchens are both 14/1, and at the weights with the favorite who is more than half their price, i thought i’d take a small chance.
330- Doncaster
Hitchens £5 @ 14/1
Our Jonathon @ 14/1Cheers Ginge. Have you anything mind for the Derby ? Battle Of Marengo runs tomorrow, so he is one to watch.
As said LW, of all O’Brien horses Battle Of Merengo is the one that looks value on "form" and came close to backing him myself. What put me off was he’s only been third choice for the yard (after Kingsbarns and Mars). Been bitten before with AOB Derby contenders (Imperial Monarch). However, reading between the lines it seems Kingsbarns is unlikely to make Epsom, so BOM could take his place. I could regret my decision later today.
In what looks an open year I’ve backed a couple of outsiders LW, Steeler @ 33/1 and the twice raced Race And Status 40/1.
Race And Status impressed me when fairly easily winning in a really good 7f Newbury maiden (good-firm) in September on debut. One of the best looking two year olds I saw in 2012. Trainer Andrew Balding’s two year olds usually need their first run/don’t win many with newcomers; which makes it even more encouraging. 2¼ lengths runner-up Bright Strike had a lot of experience and earlier finished closer to one of Richard Hannon’s best two year olds Wentworth in what’s usually one of the best maidens of the year – "Convivial" at York. Race And Status had only a couple of weeks break before a second run and probably hadn’t come on a great deal from Newbury; 3¾ lengths 3rd to the well thought of/more experienced Ghurair in a valuable sales race at Newmarket (7f soft). Race And Status should (imo) be better suited by at least 1¼m as a three year old. By Ravens Pass, out of a half sister to Oaks winner Love Divine (dam of St Leger winner Sixties Icon); Race And Status is a half brother to Dunboyne Express (by Shamardal) who was fully effective at between a mile 8 to 12 furlongs. 5th in Irish versions of both Guineas and Derby. Also ¾ length second to Group 1 winner Banimpire in the 1¼m Group 2 Royal Whip… Before going on to be beaten that distance over a mile in a Grade 1 in Hong Kong. Another half-brother Angels Story was not as genuine (by Galileo). Won the 10½f Ulster Oaks (handicap) off 83, but also stayed 1½m when under 2 lengths 4th in a handicap off a mark of 90. Neither Dunboyne Express or Angels Story had the looks of Race And Status.
Steeler was seemingly exposed for Mark Johnston as a two year old. Second over an inadequate 7f to Dundonnell in the Group 3 Acomb. Improved significantly at a mile to win Group 2 Royal Lodge by a length from Artigiano. He’s a lazy but genuine individual who keeps finding plenty for pressure, sort never to win anything by far. Might also be one of the few to take to the harder training regime Godolphin tend to use. Steeler went on to be placed around 2 length 3rd to easy Racing Post Trophy winner Kingsbarns on good-soft. Victor has a markedly round action suited by a flat course on a soft surface. Steeler on the other hand is (imo) suited by a sound surface and could yet do better when stamina is at more of a premium. Another by Ravens Pass, but dam Discreet Brief won the "fillies St Leger". Dam’s progeny usually stay pretty well. Secret Dancer (by Saddlers Wells) won at 2m4f over hurdles and Doggerbank won at 1m4f and stayed further on flat despite being by Oasis Dream.
Neither Steeler or Race And Status have a great chance of Epsom glory LW, so am not that hopeful… But as ever, value is everything.
Value Is EverythingI’ll agree to disagree on value Ginge. I think it’s only value if you are laying off to guarantee a profit, as odds are only a traders mathematical intepretation of chance, and not an exact science. I think Steeler ran a very nice race in the Racing Post trophy. You know Jonston toughens them up, but what happens once they are passed on is anyones guess. He certainly is very likeable, and if he re-appears and progresses he could be interesting. Race and Status again looks like a nice horse. He has done nothing wrong. He was impressive in breaking his maiden on debut, and looks as if he ran well in the millions. You said it yourself though, it looks unlikely at this stage that either of those two will win the derby, although if you get one of those there you never know. I’m sure if you see something else closer to the race you’ll act on it. I thinnk Bin Suroor has another nice horse kicking about, which won’t be a derby type but he could land a prize or two, and that’s called ‘Tawhid’. He was a progressive 2y/o, and i think he’s one to keep an eye out for. He certainly did everything right at Newbury and Nottingham. As for Battle of Marengo, i was satisfied with how he won today. I said the other day that maybe i was being obvious, but at the end of the day there are in some years a cluster of O’brien horses in the places when the Derby is finished. If we look over the past few years or so, there have been some big runs from the likes of Astrology, Memphis Tennesse, Master of the Horse and so on. Therefore, i’ve went back in again on the two i’ve backed . On that alone i’d be dissapointed if i never came close enough with one of them.
Battle of Marengo £20 @ 12/1
Mars £30 @ 7/1-£55
odds are only a traders mathematical intepretation of chance, and not an exact science.
Totally agree LW. What I meant is neither Steeler or R&S have anything like the best chance of winning the Derby at this stage. But the prices
in my opinion
make both worth a bet. ie Steeler has (
imo
) a better than 3% and R&S better than 2.5% chance of winning. "Value" is always in the eye of the beholder.
Value Is EverythingI thinnk Bin Suroor has another nice horse kicking about, which won’t be a derby type but he could land a prize or two, and that’s called ‘Tawhid’. He was a progressive 2y/o, and i think he’s one to keep an eye out for. He certainly did everything right at Newbury and Nottingham. As for Battle of Marengo, i was satisfied with how he won today. I said the other day that maybe i was being obvious, but at the end of the day there are in some years a cluster of O’brien horses in the places when the Derby is finished. If we look over the past few years or so, there have been some big runs from the likes of Astrology, Memphis Tennesse, Master of the Horse and so on. Therefore, i’ve went back in again on the two i’ve backed . On that alone i’d be dissapointed if i never came close enough with one of them.
It’s true AOB does run quite a few horses in the Derby LW. Got the impression last year might have been a one off. They did not want to take on Camelot with anything that might beat him, like my Imperial Monarch
. Tawhid’s a good call LW. Backed him at Newbury. Trainer Bin Surroor doesn’t have a good recent record in the early Classics, otherwise on soft ground he’d be a 2000 Guineas possible. Good luck with Battle Of Marengo, certainly still with a good chance, in my opinion justified Derby odds today, without over-impressing.Value Is EverythingWell done on Gabrial, I flipped a coin between him an Bell’s horse and backed the latter. Had a very average day but saved the bacon on Beaumont’s Party. Jack Dexter was bitterly disappointing for me in the big sprint handicap.
Battle Of Marengo looked OK today but, as he did last year, looked more of a grinder than a quickener. Maybe more of a Leger type but with Kingsbarns seemingly running out of time to be ready for Epsom and a maiden winner, from a stable without a group 1 winner in two years, at the head of the market then anything with a bit of class and staying power has to be considered on the value side.
I noticed that Charlie Hills seemed to blurt out that two year old Beatabout The Bush had been going very nicely at home, before seemingly reacting as if he had let something slip out. The horse is entered at Newmarket on Wednesday in a race with three previous first time winners and, with Ryan Moore up, it looks interesting that they are not going the maiden route first time up. The stable has been going well.
Good luck with the thread and the bets.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cheers Stevie. For once the coin landed on the true side. I had a bet in the Jack Dexter race, but i couldn’t see why he was that price. Sprint form can be unreliable at the best of times, and when i watched the replay of his previous win, i thought he was either a false favourite or under priced, considering Our Jonathon had a claimer on board, and there was a 6 pound swing in the weights with Hitchens. I will try and look out for Our Jonathon in the future and hope that his mark drops, because i think there’s a prize in him yet. As far as your opinion on Battle of Marengo, i’d say it is too early for me to form a strong opinion on what his best trip will be. I’m not too worried how far he could get down the lines as he is only a 3y/o. Fame and Glory only found Sea the Stars too good despite him being a future gold cup winner. I thought he won as well as i’d like him to win at this stage, as there is clearly improvement to come and that ground yesterday wasn’t much use to him. O’Brien might have to throw a cluster bomb if they don’t have an obvious top chance, especially if they feel that they have a big horse to bring down, like they tried to do with Sea the Stars. Obviously that horse could be Dawn Approach. I’ll watch out for ‘Beatabout thebush’, but i’m not quick to back a first time runners. I’m sure i heard this horse mentioned somewhere recently, so i went back to Nick Lucks friday chat, but to no avail. I recall that trainer having a talking horse or two in the past year or two. I think one was an Abdullah owned colt, and there might have been a so called 1000 guineas ‘gamble’. Neither added up to much. So for that reason i will watch and hope your money crosses the line first.
Cheers Stevie. For once the coin landed on the true side. I had a bet in the Jack Dexter race, but i couldn’t see why he was that price. Sprint form can be unreliable at the best of times.
Good point Graeme,I was up at Doncaster the day
Jack Dexter
won the Cammidge on ground he likes (Soft) and conditions of the race to suit.In the parade ring I couldn’t help at how well
Our Jonathan
looked,he was like a coiled spring and fit to burst,he will definitely get a good race this year.In stark contrast
Jack Dexter
looked positively tiny so I was convinced he’d not lump top weight last Saturday on much faster ground,he very much reminds me of his sire ‘Orientor’ a horse that cost me dear,I wont fall into the same trap with this fellow.
Agreed on Jack Dexter lads, ended up a silly price at 9/2
I had him pegged as a mud-lark last year but the trainer seemed to think he would be OK on good ground and was bullish about him progressing, even talking about stepping up to group company later in the year. The reason he caught my eye was that he was 13/2 with the sponsors in the first odds available, where they had Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze at 6/1 Fav and for me he was a talking horse, having only netted seven grand in prize money to Jack Dexter’s plus 100,000 total. I note that Stoute has favourites for both The Derby and Oaks in Telescope and Liber Nauticus but they have both won only maiden races so far and the trainer has stank the place out the past couple of years. Horses of immense promise of course but surely Stoute will have to rise like Lazarus to net an Epsom double and reward the punter’s faith, blind or not.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cheers Stevie. For once the coin landed on the true side. I had a bet in the Jack Dexter race, but i couldn’t see why he was that price. Sprint form can be unreliable at the best of times.
Good point Graeme,I was up at Doncaster the day
Jack Dexter
won the Cammidge on ground he likes (Soft) and conditions of the race to suit.In the parade ring I couldn’t help at how well
Our Jonathan
looked,he was like a coiled spring and fit to burst,he will definitely get a good race this year.In stark contrast
Jack Dexter
looked positively tiny so I was convinced he’d not lump top weight last Saturday on much faster ground,he very much reminds me of his sire ‘Orientor’ a horse that cost me dear,I wont fall into the same trap with this fellow.
Absolutely Gordon. It also works both ways i suppose, in that he might get beat a few times, then all of a sudden be a price worth thinking about once he gets his ground and a less testing track. Something like Chester might be his cuppa. Not many horses in the 5-7f races have a string of consecutive wins or places. They can be hard too get at the right time unless you know something.
Agreed on Jack Dexter lads, ended up a silly price at 9/2
I had him pegged as a mud-lark last year but the trainer seemed to think he would be OK on good ground and was bullish about him progressing, even talking about stepping up to group company later in the year. The reason he caught my eye was that he was 13/2 with the sponsors in the first odds available, where they had Stoute’s Duke Of Firenze at 6/1 Fav and for me he was a talking horse, having only netted seven grand in prize money to Jack Dexter’s plus 100,000 total. I note that Stoute has favourites for both The Derby and Oaks in Telescope and Liber Nauticus but they have both won only maiden races so far and the trainer has stank the place out the past couple of years. Horses of immense promise of course but surely Stoute will have to rise like Lazarus to net an Epsom double and reward the punter’s faith, blind or not.
Stevie, some of the prices kicking about are hopeless. We see it season after season, and trainers are not quick to rule out their horses acting on any going, even when there’s a doubt. Apparently there’s big support for Toronado for the guineas, well it wasn’t that long ago there was so called big support for Workforce in the same race, and he was never going there in a month of Sundays. I think as the season approaches they just want to fire some prices down and throw in a few stories to shorten the book. If he even goes, you’ll get at least that on the day.
I’m going to totally rip off Joni’s backing of Hot Snap and have some small bets on her. Props to him if she wins, go to his thread and complain if she gets beats. He has said it all, and i’d add that Cecil won this race 4 times on the trot in the late 70s and early 80s, two of whom went on to win the 1000 guineas itself. Her maiden form doesn’t add up at all, but i haven’t found Cecil to be a trainer who will just throw one in this race unless it runs well at home.
405 Newmarket Hot Snap – £7 @ 20/1 and £8 place between 7/2 and 16/5
£15 eand £5 for both classic at 25/1 and 40/1.
-£90
Needless to say i was pleased with that, and thanks to Joni for him sparking the idea. I also done my bit by adding some historical reasoning, so all worked out well. The target now is obviously the guineas, so i hope she gets there. I even went back in for a lesser price. I also said before today that i think the guineas is the race to forget all of the form and go one at bigger digits, so it worked out well.
Hot Snap 1000 guineas £28 @ 6/1
+ £55
There isn’t a great deal for me to have a punt on today, so i thought i’d have a small bet for added interest. I think Windhoek is one to bare in mind for this season, so i threw him into a e/w double. I don’t know how far he is along, but being a Cape Cross there should be gradual progression. He’s one to put in your notebook anyway, or at least that’s my opinion. David Evans is a trainer i’d never saw or heard in front of the camera before, but he was in top form yesterday and seems to think his will go well in the first(some seem to think this is a reason not to back it). I’m not usually one for these sort of races, but she looks decent and i think her last run had a bit of promise. It was a good interview and they don’t get much straigter than that in terms of answers. Here’s hoping. Oooppsss, i didn’t notice that the first race is 1/5 3 places on a 18 runner race. Deary me
Limegrove 7/1
Windhoek 7/1£5 e/w double
I was waiting for the Jezki price to make a bit more sense to me. Others have pointed out that he’s now 2/1, so i had a bet because of the concession that refunds me as a free bet if i back anything that comes 2nd to a Mullins horse. I thought he was going to be stuck on 13/8 all day and was pretty much just going to forget about it. I’ll take a chance.
Jezki £20 @ 2/1 (MB concession with VC)
+ £25
. Tawhid’s a good call LW. Backed him at Newbury. Trainer Bin Surroor doesn’t have a good recent record in the early Classics, otherwise on soft ground he’d be a 2000 Guineas possible. Good luck with Battle Of Marengo, certainly still with a good chance, in my opinion justified Derby odds today, without over-impressing.
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