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This race have been won by some AW favourites over the years, including Grand Passion, Cusoon & Dansant. Last year it was won by Re Barolo, with Suits Me in 2nd, & Scintillo (who went on to win the Winter Derby) in 3rd. On first glance, this years entries look a bit disappointing.
They are headed by Gitano Hernando, who won a G1 in the USA last time out. I think the form of any of his last three races would be good enough to win this. He also seems to have run fast on his last two starts as well. He will carry a 7lb penalty for his G1 win, & I guess this is a prep for the Dubai World Cup. The last G1 horse to take in a Lingfield AW Listed race as a prep was Presvis, who was also trained by an Italian & ridden by K.Fallon. I have a lot of time for M.Botti on the AW though.
The next group of contenders are AW regulars. Suits Me has run very well in a couple 10f Listed races before Xmas, & in a handicap off a big weight last time, as well as finishing 2nd in this race last year. He produced his best 10f time ever behind Tranquil Tiger in December, which must give him a good chance here. Settigano finished 3rd in that race, only a few lengths adrift, while there’s no obvious reason why he should reverse placings, he shouldn’t be too far away. Baylini has run wonderfully in a couple of handicaps recently, her style of running really suits in a strong run race. She has OK form in these Listed races, but you have to feel some of these rivals will be too strong for her. Yahrab is an interesting entry. He hasn’t shown much at all since running very well for M bin Shafya in Dubai last year. He’s now back home with C.Brittain, and has C+D form, having won the Churchill stakes in 2008.
We are left with a group of OR90 & below horses, who you wouldn’t think would be good enough, but course form does count for something here, & horses like Dalradian, & to a lesser degree Mister Green & Confidentiality are worthy of a try in this sort of race.
My quite obvious shortlist is Gitano Hernando, Suits Me, & a hunch that Yahrab may perform better now he’s back home.
I think Dalradian has the potential to develop into a Winter Derby class horse on AW. I don’t think he’d have anything life the stiff task in the Derby trial, or the Derby itself as what current ratings suggest.
Another 10f Lingfield race producing a very good time. Gitano Hernando won in 2.01.97, which is fractionally faster (0.004 sec) than the time Tranquil Tiger & Suits Me recorded in the Quebec stakes before Xmas. It was 0.34sec outside the course record, despite what the RP website report says. It puts GH 5th on the all time list of fast times over 10f, probably 2nd only to Dansant, if you want to go down the route of weight-adjusted ratings.
Considering GH was supposedly only 85-90% fit, & was not all out, I’m left with the inpression he is very fast horse, that’s backed up by the times of his previous two wins.
Suits Me has once again run a solid race, it’s his 2nd fastest time ever over this 10f, although imo he hasn’t reproduced the form that saw him finish a SH behind TT. He’s probably run about 4 lengths slower, that may be as good as he could be today, or it may be that D.Holland got the front-running pace very slightly wrong (no criticism intented).
Mister Green has run a blinder & his best ever time over this 10f. Considering what Dalradian did to MG giving him weight in a handicap, David’s views about Dalradian (which I share) are very valid. Those horses that can travel, cruise & can then quicken around Lingfield are worth keeping a note of.
Yahrab, judged on time alone, has not performed that badly. He has run faster today than he did when winning a tactical Churchill stakes over this C+D a while back. He travelled nicely for a long way as well. It’s whether he still has the appetite to race & win?
Really good performance from Gitano Hernando, think he should have a good season in Group company, all the more so if he can translate his synthetics form to turf.
As for this years candidates I nominate Final Drive, profited 5 out the last 6 races-he is in a different league, canters over everything he races against & is truly a wee superstar.
Many of my friends/family were on him as I told anyone ready to listen to bet him in each & every race, & I have been rewarded with as much as 9.6 on BF.
What do you people think of him-what a turn of foot for a dirt horse-He cost £5000 & the yanks will be bidding lots for this gelding-he will defo be sold to race abroad-
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