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I have no info on Silver Pivotal, by all winter I meant as soon as I saw it declared for the handicap it won in Jan I thought it would win that race and then win the Winter Derby.
Agree there is a slight chance Dubai’s Touch could get picked off late but there is only one single figure drawn horse with a recent run that has the form to win this. The draw is what has made this a very strong bet.
What makes me more confident is the fact I have no emotional attachment. I wanted to back Silver Pivotal and didn’t fancy Dubai’s Touch to stay last time out so I am just looking at the facts here and they suggest Dubai’s Touch is a fantastic each way bet, something would have to go seriously wrong for this horse not to place, I’m on at 13/2 with Coral. I think it has stood as it isn’t showing up on Oddschecker.
This looks a stronger race than the trial and Dubai’s Touch really did have every chance that day and I didn’t like the way he looked to hang fire early in the straight. He should get the race run to suit but I’m not sure he’s quite good enough in this if some of the better types get the breaks.
Good post, cheltenhamhill.
It looks to me that Grand Passion has been set up for this once again and there’s no rapidly improving type like Gentleman’s Deal to deal with this year. The one contender for that title, Silver Pivotal, has an awful draw.
GP has a major chance on official ratings and knows every granule of composite around Lingfield. Thus, the outside draw is of no concern and if there is one track out of the four AW arenas where I’d back a hold up horse, it’s Lingfield. Ignore his race in the Trial: he was last in 2007 too before his best ever run.
Second run back from a break is the time to catch this battler; on four occasions he has been placed or won under that circumstance. Supporting that he comes to hand early, he was a neck second last year on his third run back.
Saying that, it took me a month to get over his defeat last year at a huge price and as cheltenhamhill intimates in his post, the horse is a heartbreaker who needs luck – which is the province of the few in horse racing. But the win price will be juicy tomorrow.
Ive studied this race for 2 hours!!!
Found it difficult to split the M.Johnson 2…but im going with ZAHAM,Should have the pace to get across to the rails,will know pretty early how my bet will go!!!
It’s a strong and wide open field. So I was looking for a longshot and found EVIDENT PRIDE. He comes from a lower class but finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in 12 of his 13 starts on all weather tracks. He also shows great Lingfield and distance records. Will make a late run and hopefully fly by them all.
Good luck!
Silver Pivotal won’t have it easy from that draw and I wonder whether this is really her track – she took a while to get going here last time…..
I like Evident Pride as well at the likely price and Philatelist – they are both decent lingfield horses who can upset higher rated rivals here.
The way many races are run at Lingfield, speed ratings may not be as relevant as normal, but if they are of any interest, these are my ratings for the horses that have run over this 10f trip at Lingfield. They are based on time, & are weight adjusted to a degree (because weight doesn’t seem to matter so much here).
Silver Pivotal 233+, Evident Pride 232, Dubai’s Touch 230+, Grand Passion 230, Baylini 229, Dream Lodge 226, Philatelist 223+, Orchard Supreme 223, Hattan 221. No ratings for Alfresco, Charlie Toyko, Great Hawk, Red Maloney & Zahim.
On the same scale, last year Cusoon was 240 & Blue Bajan 239. Imo no horses have run really fast over 10f this winter. Matram was probably the fastest. It is a problem, because you would think that several horses, with & without ratings, could run faster that they have, just don’t know which ones yet.
Interesting stuff Colin. I’ll be honest I don’t use speed figures much at all on the all-weather because, as you say, so few races are run at a proper gallop, and then even if you have a horse than runs to a decent speed figure one day, chances are he’s relient on certain conditions to do so and is far from sure to get them next time.
my worry with silver pivotal who i will now be backing is that mares don’t win this race
In fairness, there was always a likelihood Spencer would get in trouble from that draw. Silver Pivotal also takes a while to get going – not sure it was as bad a ride as most people will claim.
The difficult to please people crabbing the Gold Cup ought to have watched that race. That was depressing to watch. My horse needed something to run at and I was beaten from flagfall.
The jockeys ought to be ashamed of themselves. Not just Spencer, LGR. What could he do off that pace?
There is a case for moving the Winter Derby to Wolverhampton or Kempton because no jockey wants to make it a fair test at Lingers – to the detriment of the sport. You virtually never get races run like that in the States.
the winning time of the race was 2.03.61 – pretty fast. i’m annoyed silver pivotal didn’t win too. as for races in the states, aren’t the fields usually much more strung out, i’m not sure that’s better
i’m much more annoyed about the last, excusez moi’s jockey not only gave the field half a dozen lengths at the gates, when finishing fast he had to try quite hard to not finish in the place pos – that rides got to be worth a ban for not doing everything to get the best possible finishing pos
No real complaints there. Wasn’t much more Spencer could have done and as last time, she just took a while to get going, the trouble being this time instead of 3 lengths off the pace she was 8 lengths off it. It was a better ride than that Zaham got. Although he was always up against it after stumbling, Hills just sat wide, neither trying to get cover or try and get on the pace and that horses chance was effectively over after 3f.
Sympathies for anyone who backed Philatelist too. He’d surely have been in the shake up with a clear run, though it could be a blessing in disguise as he’s likely to be able to go back into handicaps off 94.
Simon, in the vast majority of the dirt races I watch from the States, you have a rabbit, sometimes two or three, who go off in front and you have closers who hang around the back.
You often get huge expanses between the pace and the closer but this is not always the case; they say the Yank jockeys are born with a clock in their heads and you only have to compare their races with ours – like today’s unsatisfactory affair – to see they may be on to something.
The symbiosis between rabbit and chasers often ensures integrity in the race itself, leading to more predictable results. You rarely get riders "playing jockeys" as we saw today, though it’s not impossible. A slow pace in a race is no good to me and, if I may be so bold, of no use to punters in general.
I’m not saying all of the races over in the States have an even pace, but certainly there are many more than Lingfield where jockeys have either a fear of front running or some other phobia beyond my faculty. This doesn’t exist elsewhere – look at Kempton. You get plenty of races at the other three AW tracks which are run at a traditionally English pace rather than an artificial French one.
I was surprised to see the Johnston runners so moderately ridden – but that’s a stable with very specific patterns which doesn’t usually include the Winter Derby. Cheers, anyroad.
Well i bet ZAHAM and i knew my money was gone before the first bend
Anyhoo wee bit of talking through my pocket but om not a Hills fan!!!!!
Roll on the turf season
Max,
I am no expert on American racing, but have watched enough to be fairly certain that none contain the undualtions that there are at Lingfield. Southwell & Wolves can suit a front runner, but the very nature of Lingfields speedy downhill run makes it difficult to front run and save enough for the run in.
It is very much a specialist track and clearly suits horses with a vast burst of speed who get the trip (i’m very much in favour of horses who have proved they stay a furlong further at Wolverhampton, then drop in trip at Lingfield), very few races are ground out from the front, but horses do have to stay as the downhill run from nearly 5 furlongs out to inside the final 2 furlongs, forces horses to run at top speed for 3 furlongs before the 2 furlong run to the line – which can explain why some horses look like they are flying, it’s probably because the horses in front are really stopping.
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