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Winter Derby 2008

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Winter Derby 2008

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  • #6947
    davidjohnson
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    • Total Posts 4491

    Apparently theres a jumps meeting in the Cotswold in the week leading up to this race so it may not get the coverage it deserves but with the sponsors now offering prices I thought I’d start a thread about the race, particularly as most of the horses at the head of the sponsors betting look doubtful runners.

    Dansant is off to Dubai, Royal Oath is already out there, whilst Gentleman’s Deal doesn’t look to have had as smooth a prep as last year judging by his non-appearance so far this year. Zaham would hold an obvious chance on his Cumberland Lodge form but he’s surely going to need further than 10f around Lingfield nowadays.

    The one I like is Silver Pivotal. She was mightily impressive in handicap company on her reappearance and if she can progress another 4 or 5 lbs from that it puts her bang there. Her chance looks even better if you take the form of her defeat of subsequent Group 1 placed Promising Lead literally. She’s currently trading 8/1 and she’s surely going to be trading at half those odds when it becomes clear she’s Butler’s number 1 and when the race cuts up as badly as it loos sure too.

    #148180
    Tuffers
    Member
    • Total Posts 1402

    Is Gentleman’s Deal still mixing racing with duties at stud?

    #148182
    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1299

    The sponsors also went up with 50-1 Evident Pride which was a huge price…

    I wouldnt argue with Silver Pivotal at 8-1. Assuming Dansant runs in Dubai (which is what Butler said after he won) then I think she would be a deserving favourite in the race,

    #149310
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    The first part of DJ’s plan has fallen into place nicely. G.Butler has more or less confirmed Silver Pivotal is his first string, now she’s the 7/2 fav, & as low as 5/2 with some. GB seemed quite assured when he talked about her on Saturday, & bearing in mind the others he has entered, that’s got to be a positive.

    Has anyone heard anything about Gentleman’s Deal? If he turns up, it will be off a near three month break. His record at Lingfield on face value is excellent. Three races (two Listed & a G3) over CD, resulting in two wins, and a short-head 2nd in the other. You can pick holes in his Lingfield form though. If he doesn’t run, Dubai’s Touch will probably run in a similar style, & is probably of fairly similar ability.

    It would be very interesting if either Red Moloney &/or Green Tobasco turn up. They both have winning form over 10.5f on the AW at Dundalk. The form of Red Maloney looks very progressive, he’s won a couple of Listed races & comes from a top stable. His form is similar in a way to Dansant.

    #149327
    deltaman
    Member
    • Total Posts 190

    Jack Sullivan must be in with great a chance depending on the draw/jockey..didn’t like Dubai but loved it at Wolverhampton.

    #149328
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    He’s a classy horse Deltaman, & is one of my favs. As well as getting the draw though, he’s also got to get the trip as well. I suppose if he’s going to get 10f anywhere, it will be at track like Lingfield.

    I was thinking that maybe something that has had a lighter campaign may be a better option. JS has been on the go non-stop since the Autumn. That’s just my opinion though, I may be completely wrong. I was wrong about him Saturday, I didn’t think he would travel as well as he did over that trip.

    #149333
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    I fancy Philatelist..two wins from two starts on the All Weather and if you use Baylini as a yardstick, he’d have been on the premises in the Derby trial.

    I’ve looked at his form on turf as a 3YO – he had some tough assignements in some strong Heritage handicaps and he might be able to fare better on the sand than he was able to do on grass.

    Gary Tanaka paid £95k for the horse at Tattersalls Autumn Sales and he has stayed with Michael Jarvis, so I would suggest connections are of the same opinion.

    #149336
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I’m not sure how strong the Derby Trial form is and think Philatelist will still need to improve quite a bit to be in the shake up. I also didn’t like his finishing effort last time – it’s not the first time he has hung right and I think he’ll make things very hard for himself if he does it again in the Winter Derby itself.

    #149339
    scallywag76
    Member
    • Total Posts 280

    Have heard whispers that Denman will be supplemented if all doesn’t go well on Friday. What a geezer that Harry Findlay is!

    #149347
    sberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1801

    JacK Sullivan will hack up, the last time i was confident about the winter derby was parasol, Jack Sullivan

    #149358
    Black Sam Bellamy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 442

    I’m not sure how strong the Derby Trial form is and think Philatelist will still need to improve quite a bit to be in the shake up. I also didn’t like his finishing effort last time – it’s not the first time he has hung right and I think he’ll make things very hard for himself if he does it again in the Winter Derby itself.

    Possibly so David..but the burst of acceleration at the finish was visually impressive considering he’d been off the track since August. Maybe the re-application of blinkers will assist his concentration.

    #149630
    yorkshirepudding
    Member
    • Total Posts 608

    The easterbys re as crafty as a cartload of monkeys, Mick will have that horse fit i suspect, sex burns allot calories :D

    Jack Sulivan doesnt get ten furlongs in a horse box…..

    #150388
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    You could not rule out Philatelist completely, his biggest problem may be getting into the race. Imo he’s one of a few lower rated horses that could still improve. He has got 10lb+ to find, he also hasn’t run that fast yet over this CD. Although the way many races are being run at Lingfield these days, he may not have to. The fastest Philatelist has run is 2.06.31, compare that to Silver Pivotal who has run 2.04.10 carrying more weight. Last year Cusoon was speeding round here in under 2.02.00. There doesn’t look to be many front runners in the field either. If Dream Lodge gets in he may set a modest-to-fair pace, otherwise we are probably relying on one of the M.Johnson horses.

    Not sure if you have noticed in the RP delclarations, but Blythe Knight, Zaham and Great Hawk have all got jockeys against them. If they all run, it puts a different complexion on the race. Looks like Jamie Spencer is going to ride Silver Pivotal.

    #150520
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    Final declarations, looks a very interesting, and quite a competitive race. Looks like no Gentleman’s Deal or Jack Sullivan. Not sure if Silver Pivotal will remain as short as 5/2 in this field & getting drawn out in stall 14 as well.

    1(12) 253128 Alfresco 7 I A Wood 0 4 9-0b George Baker 95 117 115 5-19 0-1
    2(4) 1675-0 Charlie Tokyo R A Fahey 50 5 9-0v Paul Hanagan 105 103 75 0-2 2-12
    3(2) 12-724 Dream Lodge 21 J G Given — 4 9-0 T P Queally 93 112 95 2-9 0-2
    4(1) 8024-2 Dubai´s Touch 21 M Johnston 100 4 9-0 Joe Fanning 109 123 103 1-2 0-1
    5(10) 2311-2 Evident Pride 63 B R Johnson 100 5 9-0 Chris Catlin 96 118 105 5-13 2-4
    6(11) 5812-0 Grand Passion 21 G Wragg 100 8 9-0 Steve Drowne 105 123 119 5-20 4-29
    7(5) 01774- Great Hawk 175 Sir Michael Stoute — 5 9-0v Jimmy Fortune 98 117 116 1-2 2-6
    8(7) 46140- Hattan 132 C E Brittain 50 6 9-0 Seb Sanders 105 113 81 1-2 1-15
    9(9) 4252-2 Orchard Supreme 56 R Hannon 70 5 9-0 Richard Hughes 100 120 87 7-28 0-3
    10(3) 2765-1 Philatelist 28 M A Jarvis 0 4 9-0 N Callan 94 115 82 2-2 1-3
    11(8.) 11131- Red Moloney 127 Kevin Prendergast 100 4 9-0 D P McDonogh 113 57 1-1 2-2
    12(13) 11322- Zaham 167 M Johnston 100 4 9-0 R Hills 113 105 102 2-3 3-4
    13(6) 1-1423 Baylini 21 Ms J S Doyle — 4 8-11 James Doyle 94 119 79 3-11 2-6
    14(14) /121-1 Silver Pivotal 49 G A Butler 67 4 8-11 Jamie Spencer 105 126 99 1-1 1-1

    #150533
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    I think she’ll drift out to around 7/2 with that draw. Little pace on as well and I can see her enduring a nasty trip out wide.

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