William Buick is the most overrated jockey of my lifetime

[Nathan Hughes]

6. He’s got more style in the saddle than any jockey that has ever lived
7. Nathan lost money betting him to be champion apprentice
8. Nathan tipped him up in TRF Awards as one to watch 4 years ago
9. He’ll be champion jockey within the next 3 years
10. Aidan will be saying listen there’s only one Ryan and its not that Moore fella

Charles Darwin to conquer the World

[Gingertipster]

“If you’d followed him blind this year you’d be over £171 up to a £1 stake.
3. This means his winners over expected is…”

—————————-

For sure Rossa Ryan is a good jockey.

…But just because a jockey is showing a £171 profit for a £1 stake over the year, does not necessarily mean his “winners over-expected” to that amount, or anything like. Punters should not presume his mounts as a whole are underestimated by the market.

Rossa had one 150/1 winner at Royal Ascot.
So take just two particular races out of his record and he’d be showing a loss.
Stats are interesting and it’s possible Rossa’s profit could be meaningful.
Or unfortunately probably could be just luck.

Considering the number of jockeys riding in any given year, the laws of averages mean there is probably going to be one or two jockeys that have one or two big priced winners (usually one 100/1 and one 50/1+) that enables them to show a good profit. For each of those jockeys it could be said (as you say Ian) “If you’d followed him blind this year”… Trouble is before the year starts no punter knows who that 100/1+ jockey/s will be, so who do you follow or not follow?.

I remember years ago when trainer Brendan Powell had a similar profit for a £1 stake at Fontwell. But this was completely due to one 100/1 and (if I remember rightly) one 80/1. Didn’t stop the Racing Post saying Powell is the trainer to follow at Fontwell. Anyone taking any notice would’ve lost a lot of money.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

And take Cachet and Via Sistina out of the equation and what has George Boughey ever done on the other thread?

You can’t have it both ways, GT!

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

I don’t want it both ways Ian.
Cachet is no proof.
But that’s why I started that post with “It’s not all about one horse, but…”

…But by producing both Cachet from a humble pedigree to win the 1000 and improving Via Sistina out of all recognition to be a Group 1 winner.

…Yes, it could still be a coincidence, but I think more likely not.

I just think that considering the enormous number who’ve started training over the decades, not many who’ve only been training the number Boughey has get such results without going on to prove themselves.
Whereas it seems to me in many years there’s a jockey that gets a 100/1+ winner that enables them to show an otherwise amazing profit.

Value Is Everything

[IanDavies]

I’m not saying p/l to a level stake is the acid test, GT – there are better measures of winners above or below expected.

But a 150/1 winner is hardly a steering job and, though horses don’t know what what odds they are, common sense dictates that if jockeys can ride winners the market considered to have little chance, it adds to their merit.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Gingertipster]

I agree, Ian.
It’s just that massive odds can (not always but can) make a profit more to do with coincidence.

Value Is Everything

[Nathan Hughes]

Rossa Ryan has the lot.. only thing he lacks is brute strength of say a Kirby
Will make a perfect replacement for Ryan Moore when Aidan goes looking

Charles Darwin to conquer the World

[Gingertipster]

Very possibly Nathan.

Value Is Everything

[sporting sam]

But he just keeps winning.

[Cork All Star]

Buick rode a fine race in defeat in the 8.00 tonight.

[Coggy]

As others have accurately posted, Rossa Ryan is riding extremely well , and with supreme confidence.
It does help though , that he is associated with a trainer who is is enjoying a
prolific , purple patch , in Ralph Beckett.
Good luck to both of them.

[Coggy]

Alongside other highlighted overrated jockeys , I would also normally add Hollie Doyle.
I simply don’t understand , a previous poster’s views ,that she is riding amongst the best in the U.K.
In my view that is simply box ticking , P.C..
Other than the odd clump of winners at gaff tracks , she is an average jockey.
That said , her ride today on Trueshan , was great.
I know that others feel that she was carted into that position , however , I believe that it was a decisive jockey – led decision.
She deserves every credit.

[IanDavies]

I think Hollie Doyle is above average in terms of judgement of pace, though she’s not immune to tactical error.

I think her biggest problem is that, although she is physically clearly strong for her size, she is tiny even by the standards of Flat jockeys.

On big, strong, horses which take a real hold, I think she struggles to get them settled.

I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"

[Coggy]

I agree totally Ian re horses taking a hold , and her tiny size , and inability to restrain / settle them.
Prone to missing the break sometimes also.
Decent jockey , just massively over hyped.

[Sassoon1990]

Hollie Doyle for me, numerically speaking, is in the top 5 jockeys in the UK – every jockey makes errors, it’s an inevitable part of the job unfortunately. To describe her as ‘decent’ is to comfortably underrate her Cog.

[Author]

Posts