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Now now lads!!
Clive Cox was interviewed on Attheraces today and, after what seemed like an eternity, Chappers eventually broached the subject of next years Guineas. Clive Cox was of the opinion that the horse was all speed but that he had not entirely ruled out the possibility of trying him over further. I don’t think we will see him over further than 6f this year, so I am not going to back him for the 2000 Guineas. If he turns out to be a freak then so be it.
Thanks to everyone who replied.Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
His sire won over a mile and the dam while a moderate performer raced over a mile and was second over 12f while her sire Efisio did get a mile and was champion miler in Italy two years running. All in all the jury is out on whether Reckless Abandon will stay a mile but on pedigree there is no reason he won’t.
He didn’t hang left in the Morny so I wouldn’t make too much of the fact he did previously though he did have the rail to run against at Deauville.
Every horse in training has some evidence of stamina and it’s easy to make a case for 99% of 2yos staying further so I don’t see your case for him being able to get a mile?
If you’ve seen his action and conformation you’d be worried that he’ll hit a brick wall at 7f let alone strong run to a finish over 8f.
Keep dreaming.
/
Re: Peruvian Chief,
You gave up easily, probably the same traits your horses have too!
There’s also a question mark about whether Clive Cox’s horses are at their best in early May.
Is there?
Taken from the RP, the last five years’ % for Apr/May are:
2008 – Apr 11%/May 10% – Yearly total 8%
2009 – Apr 21%/May 26% – Yearly total 13%
2010 – Apr 4%/May 3% – Yearly total 8% (Xtension’s 2,000 Gns)
2011 – Apr 15%/May 14% – Yearly total 12%
2012 – Apr 14%/May 2% – Yearly total 12%In 4 of the 5 years the April % exceeded the yearly total. 3 out of 4 May percentages exceeded the annual total and in one of the two that didn’t Xtension ran in the 2010 2,000 Guineas.
The percentage call here would appear to indicate that the Cox horses are actually more likely to perform above the stable average during April and May. Admittedly this only reflects the past five years and a longer period may bear your theory out.
June or July seem to be the weaker months for Cox’s horses, as in all five years either June or July have returned a single figure percentage – both months doing so in 2008 and 2010.
Whether this has any bearing on Reckless Abandon’s future remains to be seen, but going all the way back to My Swallow in 1970, there is a high incidence of English winners of the Prix Morny failing to win over a mile in their subsequent races.
The comparison with French winners is interesting as a number of future classic winners (13) have used the Morny as a stepping stone.My guess is the rich tradition of the Prix Morny in France tends to see French handlers sending their classic aspirants to Deauville in August whereas the English trainers appear to me more predisposed to sending precocious sprinting types.
This is borne out most recently by the 2009 and 2010 renewals when the non-stayers Dream Ahead and Arcano managed to lower the colours of French trained future classic winners Special Duty and Tin Horse.
Of the ten British trained winners of the Prix Morny from 1970 (including champion 2-y-o My Swallow) not one managed to win at a mile. Seven ran in at least one mile classic, and failed to stay. Two never contested any race over a mile, and one, Dream Ahead failed to stay the trip in the St James’s Palace.
This is a worrying trend for anybody considering backing Reckless Abandon for the 2,000 Guineas, and when coupled with the reservations about his prospects of staying a mile on breeding, his classic prospects become even harder to envisage. That is not to say it isn’t worth having a go, as he can always revert to sprinting if, as seems likely, he fails to stay a mile – and as the previous poster reminded us Attraction is living proof of the rewards that await connections who are prepared to find out if their charge stays.
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