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This is one of my pet peeves. What does it mean when a trainer declares in advance that his horse will "improve from the run"? (Coolmore are famous for it) As I understand it trainers are not supposed to use the race for training purposes. But this statement looks exactly like that is what they are doing. If a permit holder made that statement he would be "up before" in a flash.Is it because many permit holders don’t have proper gallops that they are not allowed to do it?
It means sod all.
Taranis – Nicholls (How far was he off his previous best if at all?)
Kalahari King – Murphy (I have his run rated within two pounds of his Arkle run)
Two obvious examples in the last two weeks.
I’ve said it for years and years "Never listen to a word a trainer or jockey says".
Well said,Ian. You’d have laid the mortgage on Miss Pross yesterday going by Tim Walford’s pre race interview with the voice of William Hill radio. I reckon they go on for the petrol/beer money.
It means sod all.
Taranis – Nicholls (How far was he off his previous best if at all?)
Kalahari King – Murphy (I have his run rated within two pounds of his Arkle run)
Two obvious examples in the last two weeks.
Too bloody true!
Every intention of backing KK on Saturday, couldn’t see it getting beat, until I heard Murphy.
My 13-y-o boy ignored him for a fiver @12s on course.He hasn’t stopped laughing at me since.
It means sod all.
Taranis – Nicholls (How far was he off his previous best if at all?)
Kalahari King – Murphy (I have his run rated within two pounds of his Arkle run)
Two obvious examples in the last two weeks.
Too bloody true!
Every intention of backing KK on Saturday, couldn’t see it getting beat, until I heard Murphy.
My 13-y-o boy ignored him for a fiver @12s on course.He hasn’t stopped laughing at me since.
Ha ha. Could’ve been worse, could’ve geen your wife.
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So wait, regarding Kalahari King – are you saying trainer put everyone away? if so thats a bad thing to say.
There was a long absence of the track but on the grand scheme of things you still had a G1 horse in a handicap.
I take it people were wary of Murphy saying he may need the run? we’ll he may have been working the horse at 80% with the intention of the race bringing him up to 100% for Cheltenham, do you expect the trainer to come out and say yes he’s ready, he should win – if he dont then people will still be saying oh trainers put us away, BLA BLA, horse aint fit bla bla
The odds were there for you to take advantage off, the trainer has done his job, his opinion was that he’ll improve for the run, your opinion should have been horse wouldnt be at the track if unfit, too classy to risk such a dangerous ploy, G1 horse in handicap.
Sorry i cannot accept the comments of Murphy put people away
So wait, regarding Kalahari King – are you saying trainer put everyone away? if so thats a bad thing to say.
There was a long absence of the track but on the grand scheme of things you still had a G1 horse in a handicap.
I take it people were wary of Murphy saying he may need the run? we’ll he may have been working the horse at 80% with the intention of the race bringing him up to 100% for Cheltenham, do you expect the trainer to come out and say yes he’s ready, he should win – if he dont then people will still be saying oh trainers put us away, BLA BLA, horse aint fit bla bla
The odds were there for you to take advantage off, the trainer has done his job, his opinion was that he’ll improve for the run, your opinion should have been horse wouldnt be at the track if unfit, too classy to risk such a dangerous ploy, G1 horse in handicap.
Sorry i cannot accept the comments of Murphy put people away
There are two possibilities :
a) Trainers are putting people away
b) Trainers train horses to fitness but don’t really know how fit they are until they run in a race.
Its not just the grade one horse in a handicap we also had it with Celestial Halo at Wincanton – and there are many more examples.
People will have their own view as to which they believe.
So what exactly does "He will improve from the run" mean? He will be better next time out? He won’t win this time? He is not fully fit and i am using the race course to train him? He will win even though he could be fitter? Don’t believe what you see today? How much will he improve from the run? Racing folk seems so like Shakespeare; they speak in cliches.
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Q. So what exactly does "He will improve from the run" mean?
A. He will be better next time out?
B. He won’t win this time?
C. He is not fully fit and i am using the race course to train him?
D. He will win even though he could be fitter?
E. Don’t believe what you see today?
F. How much will he improve from the run?IMO, this should be a poll on TRF
My answer would be
A
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Trainers train horses to fitness but don’t really know how fit they are until they run in a race.
Over the years, any number of very good trainers have admitted that to be the case. It obviously isn’t an exact science.
In Ferdy Murphy’s defence (which isn’t something I’ve said too often) Kalahari King didn’t have to be cherry ripe to win on Saturday, a point emphasised by his new handicap mark – 9lbs higher than he ran off then.There’s a simple solution to this – weigh the horses.
No guessing games and double-bluffs – just an objective measure of a horse’s likely fitness.
Of course weighing horses will make it harder for insiders to defraud the general public, which is why The Rabble will fight its introduction until their dieing breath.
Racing folk seems so like Shakespeare; they speak in cliches.
That’s The Bard well and truly told.
Can someone explain to me how weighing horses works? When are they weighed and where? Is it a day or two prior so that it can be printed on the race card, or the day of the race and announced at the course?
Easy to do in Hong Kong, as all the horses are in one place. And maybe someone could explain, giving particular examples, how an informed decision on a horse’s form can be deducted from it’s weight. I believe the Hong Kong jockey club makes this info available on their website http://www.hkjc.com, so it should be easy enough to pick a particular animal and demonstrate the methodology/thinking involved.
Walford said that Miss Pross was "10 kg too light" and "the race has come too soon." I believed him. Miss Newton Smith was also caught out by ATR on Monday.
If I was a trainer, and I was interviewed, I’d say "the horse is a big baby and has an each way chance" or "If he puts his best foot forward he’ll run a big race." Its safer that way.
The worst example of a trainer being spectacularly wrong was George Margarson one Nottingham evening meeting, tipping up a 50/1 unraced colt (Jiggalong?) to the watching RUK audience. Next thing I knew, the price had absolutely collapsed on the Blue – it was like the final scene in "Trading Places.
The horse was unplaced. He’s never been that bullish since. Its just not worth it.
When to listen to a trainer is a matter of opinion. I would not say ignore it every time.
When there’s a negative comment from connections about a horse’s wellbeing; it may be advantageous to look at the market’s reaction. Kalahari King was best priced 12/1 in the morning. You’d expect the price to drift with such comments. Yet an SP of 10/1 suggests there were plenty who thought him "fit enough".
To win like he did, Kalahari King not only ran to form, but improved on it.
Value Is EverythingThere’s a simple solution to this – weigh the horses.
No guessing games and double-bluffs – just an objective measure of a horse’s likely fitness.
Of course weighing horses will make it harder for insiders to defraud the general public, which is why The Rabble will fight its introduction until their dieing breath.
Spot on.
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