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Why I dont back horses

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Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 56 total)
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  • #287735
    Avatar photoanthonycutt
    Member
    • Total Posts 980

    How many other jockeys had terrible rides today? It’s hardly fair to Fallon for people to go through his rides with a fine tooth comb while everyone else isn’t subject to such scrutinisation.

    Incidentally, I think racing needs more controversial characters. I’m sure someone out there is writing ‘Fallon – The Movie’ & what a story it would be.
    Just look how popular Dick Francis/John Francombe novels are?

    #287737
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Anthony, you will see that I stated I dont mind bad jockeys who try, it is Fallons decisions on how he rode today that I am not happy with.

    He stood up when others would have challenged. Its all too easy for people like me to find fault with jockeys from the comfort of the armchair and I have said I stand open for correction but for me Fallon was terrible, he opted to stand up and give up riding once challenged. Surely a jockey rides to his optimum when challenged?????

    #287749
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    I would agree entirely that Fallon did not appear to make sufficient effort inside the final furlong. Certainly the finish was worthy of further comment and there should be no need to somehow feel guilty for raising the issue.

    #287753
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    The reason I don’t back horses is that we had Soft and Heavy ground everywhere, and still there were loads and loads of short-priced winners. I would have got wiped out if I had played major today. I think there should be an investigation into ths matter to protect the small punter, and the BHA should do something to make it harder for short-priced horses to win.

    #287756
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Just noticed there betfair removed somebodys post on this topic…

    Obviously betfair saw the race and are now concerned. Perhaps an investigation..

    Not for me to say, but strange how they removed it….

    An investigation into what?

    I would imagine the post that was removed was written by some fool who couln’t read a billboard let alone a race.

    Anyone who thinks Fallon pushed his mount into the lead at the furlong marker because he wanted to get beat has got mustard for brains.

    Horse was hanging wasn’t going to win and was never in any danger of losing second.

    So Fallon did the sensible thing, didn’t flog a dead horse which is sufficient reason not to do a AP McCoy impression for the punters.

    Punters who can only see pound signs and don’t make allowances for other factors in a race see red and everyone’s a crook…..makes me laugh to be honest.

    That apart Fallon would have to be bonkers to get up to any skulldugary with the whole world watching, would he not?

    #287758
    Avatar photorobnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8451

    Gerald

    That ends up as bit of a circular argument. The way to make sure short-priced horse don’t win so often is to make racing more competitve. But then if the racing is more competitive the prices won’t be so short anyway! Over an extended period horses win with the frequency their odds suggest.

    I think the problem today, particularly with the National Hunt meetings is that the going is still very testing. With flat racing a few stables are ahead of the game and those who have soft ground perfomers ready will make hay while the the sun doesn’t shine, as it were. Soft ground horses have been on the go over jumps all season, and the pool of horses available to run starts to reduce by this time of year. Before watering was in general use the problem of uncompetitive races was extreme in times of very dry weather.

    As regards Fallon’s ride I get the impression he was riding one who doesn’t produce much under pressure. A quick galnce at the form suggests his mount is an all or nothing type, a winner when all goesa well but blows completely out otherwise. I suspect orders were to kid Eye for The Girls home and unfortunately Fallon’s luck wasn’t in. It’s a hackneyed old phrase but ‘horses aren’t machines’ they are living beings with brains which have a different agenda to those looking on. Fallon may have ridden the race differently with hindsight, but then again maybe he ended up as close as he could have been.

    Rob

    #287762
    bagnallc
    Member
    • Total Posts 132

    Im bored with the crook comments.

    On this occasion maybe he did make a judgement of error but anyone who has every single moment of their career judged and analysed is bound to cock up occasionally. Plus although he may have got closer he wouldnt have won, personally i had no complaint about his ride which was probably to instructions.

    I appreciate the history etc, but as soon as theres anything at all to complain about, its the same old tired moaning and very rarely do they have any justification for the hysterics.

    #287766
    Avatar photoPompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2390

    I want the BHA to investigate the ‘Banking Crisis’, ‘The Conflict in the Middle East’ and ‘Wagon Wheels’ being half the size they used to be.

    I’m sure they are to blame for all three somehow….

    #287769
    Avatar photoKen(West Derby)
    Member
    • Total Posts 1063

    Joncol, if you want to see some really bad rides I suggest you watch the likes of Lucksin Downs. I stopped betting there ages ago simply because far too often many of the horses I backed were getting touched off on the line due to these cartoon characters and so-called jockeys standing up in the irons in the final furlong. In fact it got so bad at one point that I put in an official complaint to the BHA but surprise, surprise, they didn’t get back to me.
    Things got so bad at one point that I switched to greyhound racing. I found the dogs were an even bigger fiddle. You see, not many people realise or can see this but I’m convinced they have little goblin jockeys on their backs. I’ve often seem them purposefully steer the dog into another one, especially on the bends, and it always seemed to be the case that when my money was on one it would always be slowly away from the traps. I’m not imagining this but I know for a fact that the goblin jockey was pulling the dog’s tail. If you don’t believe me, next time you watch a dog race look closely at the number cloth..quite often you’ll see a little hand slip out. It’s all one big fiddle run by a criminal fairy ring in Ireland. "Yes, nurse, I’ll be with you in a minute, I’m just giving some good advice to Joncol."

    #287772
    Avatar photoCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4833

    That ends up as bit of a circular argument. The way to make sure short-priced horse don’t win so often is to make racing more competitve. But then if the racing is more competitive the prices won’t be so short anyway! Over an extended period horses win with the frequency their odds suggest.

    Returned prices on favourites wouldn’t bear that out Rob. I think we could be witnessing a fundamental change in the competitiveness of UK racing, betting exchange led. I’ll wait until the end of the current Flat season before drawing any firmer conclusions.

    The market is now THE biggest predictor of the outcome of horse races because of the ability for connections to anonymously place massive sums of money on horses

    I think Max could be spot on here. A 1 point bet on all favourites at actual BFSP over the last 9 months (over 7000 races) would have yielded a profit of 181 points before commission. ROI% at traditional SP on favourites is at -5.8% for the same period. The previous 19 months it averaged at almost -8%, a big reduction in takeout for the bookmakers on market leaders.

    Today again despite the decent sized fields, 27 handicaps brim full of dodge pot pokes and an army of bank holiday punters, the results followed a familiar pattern of follow the money/feck the form.

    Is the term "working mans price" becoming in general terms as dead as the Dodo?

    #287780
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8697

    Is the term "working mans price" becoming in general terms as dead as the Dodo?

    Not at all! Anyone who makes the effort would have found a horse who has been placed 4 times in the last five renewals of the Irish National,the only time "A New Story" failed was when he was hampered and unseated his rider 3 years ago! this fellow just so happened to win this years cross country race at Cheltenham at the age of 12! 20/1 is what i call a working mans price and there was plenty available today for one of the most genuine horses in training!

    #287782
    Avatar photoCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4833

    I did put the word "general" in there, TAPK. Specifics in amongst 7000 races are not what my post is about.

    Well done on your bet though. 8)

    #287790
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5228

    So Fallon did the sensible thing, didn’t flog a dead horse which is sufficient reason not to do a AP McCoy impression for the punters.

    I think most people would have probably have been happy to see the horse pushed out to the line in the style of a half-decent 7lb claimer.

    #287799
    Avatar photoThe Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8697

    Lambrini

    You"ve had a glass or two this evening Marb! :lol:

    #287806
    Avatar photoMaxilon 5
    Member
    • Total Posts 2432

    I think Max could be spot on here. A 1 point bet on all favourites at actual BFSP over the last 9 months (over 7000 races) would have yielded a profit of 181 points before commission.

    That’s an astonishing statistic, Cav. No funding system based on a bookmaking model could survive that. I’m amazed.

    #287809
    Avatar photoraymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6945

    Its the only race at Yarmouth you cant watch the replay of at the moment on ATR!!
    Coincidence? Methinks not!!

    #287825
    Avatar photoCav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4833

    That’s an astonishing statistic, Cav. No funding system based on a bookmaking model could survive that. I’m amazed.

    I forgot to mention that if you backed favourites blind in handicaps only, for the last 9 months (almost 4300 races), you’d be 205 points up at BFSP, the loss at traditional SP would be less than 5% ROI.

    Staggering stuff imo and possible indications of a longterm shift in how UK horseracing betting markets operate as the influence of the exchanges becomes all encompassing.

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