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As soon as I heard they were considering the Lowther, I posted here that I felt it was a mistake.
This fast ground 6F at York is a sprinter’s race, not a Guineas contender’s race.
Charlton was told by Ryan Moore to go canny with her. Charlton was told to go 7F with her by Frankie. God knows what third jockey Pat Smullen is going to tell Charlton but it won’t matter because clearly he thinks he knows better than the jockeys.
Some people thought I was havering but when Duffman gets a bad feeling about something it’s often for a reason.
4/11 Fav was a crazy price. I ended up doing Roly Poly at 10/1 each way as that seemed a sensible saver on the 6/4 Fair Eva.
Nice win for Queen Kindly but the quotes for the Guineas don’t make any appeal. There is a fair list of failed Lowther winners and stamina won’t be found in munching grass over the winter months.
A balls-up from Charlton I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just managed to watch the race back. I honestly wish smullen would stay over there. He is so clueless, the amount of times he comes over and gets horses beaten is phenominal! Gets out then and dosent know what to do with the horse decides to isolate her and unsettle her. Then starts riding her 3 furlongs out. Jesus he really is terrible, he should of got her out and tagged on the the main group like spencer. That was an appalling ride. A horse that isn’t in any sort of rhythm and settled has no chance.
I’m glad she was very short otherwise I would be a serious amount down rn. Feel sorry for all the nuggets who had wedges on her.
A balls-up from Charlton I feel.
And yet nobody forced you to back Fair Eva Steve. :lol:
As you rightly say, speed was always going to be paramount, particularly in a slower (slower not slow) run affair on a faster track than Ascot and on a firmer/faster surface. However, had they gone straight to 7f might have pulled too hard. Charlton is having winners, but not in the outstanding form he was at the time of the Princess Marg. Although beaten today it may benefit Fair Eva in future races…
Balls up by anyone who backed Fair Eva today.
Strangely, I’d rather she was beat today than tanking through the race, showing masses of speed and winning hard held. I’d now be surprised if Fair Eva does not stay a mile at three, something I could not say before todaay’s race.
Value Is EverythingI think fair eva is an out and out galloper and will always be slightly vulnerable on a speed track.
Moyglare would definitely have been the better option. Perhaps they’ll still go for it.
I think GT is right – it just looked like Fair Eva hadn’t got herself going in time.
It was the same story at Ascot as she briefly floundered when the pace quickened, before finding the overdrive as she faced the rising ground. I guess she still ran a little below form today but six furlongs looks like a bare minimum.
A balls-up from Charlton I feel.
And yet nobody forced you to back Fair Eva Steve.
As you rightly say, speed was always going to be paramount, particularly in a slower (slower not slow) run affair on a faster track than Ascot and on a firmer/faster surface. However, had they gone straight to 7f might have pulled too hard. Charlton is having winners, but not in the outstanding form he was at the time of the Princess Marg. Although beaten today it may benefit Fair Eva in future races…
Balls up by anyone who backed Fair Eva today.
Strangely, I’d rather she was beat today than tanking through the race, showing masses of speed and winning hard held. I’d now be surprised if Fair Eva does not stay a mile at three, something I could not say before todaay’s race.
It’s not about backing Fair Eva, one or two of us are complaining because we did not see this race as the right progression for this horse. Nothing to do with betting, I for one certainly didn’t pile on a 2/5.
Fair Eva would stay a mile NOW that is why she needed a gradual progression i.e. a seven furlong race next.
Charlton totally ignored the advice of two top jockeys – that is bad training in my book, not that he should’ve needed advice he should’ve been knowledgeable enough to know what to do in the best interests of the horse.
You called it Stevie – fair enough. A great win for Queen Kindly and if Fair Eva was going to lose to anyone I would rather it be to her own sister. I did think that her biggest dangers would come from her own siblings and so it proved.
I wouldn’t worry about the Guineas with FE. Very few horses go through their careers unbeaten and I would back her to bounce bak next time over further. I know connections are gutted and feel like she ran flat. It did appear that she travelled ok into the race and strangely it was the final furlong that was her weakest – i.e. she didn’t appear to be outpaced. Still, it was a disappointing effort and she has something to prove now.
I am delighted for Queen Kindly. She won’t be winning any Guineas as she is all about speed but I hope she can claim her Group 1 in the Cheveley Park though she will need to improve again as Roly Poly was giving her 3lbs.
As for Frankel, he has another winner and another Group winner – just not the one we thought!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
It’s not about backing Fair Eva, one or two of us are complaining because we did not see this race as the right progression for this horse. Nothing to do with betting, I for one certainly didn’t pile on a 2/5.
Fair Eva would stay a mile NOW that is why she needed a gradual progression i.e. a seven furlong race next.
Charlton totally ignored the advice of two top jockeys – that is bad training in my book, not that he should’ve needed advice he should’ve been knowledgeable enough to know what to do in the best interests of the horse.
I get what you’re saying IB, but it does not make any sense to me that someone so ADAMANT that this race would NOT suit the filly and should therefore NOT run… BACKED the bloody thing to WIN the race. For one thing it was an ante-post bet – therefore if connections had come to the same conclusion they’d not run and the bet would be lost.
Even if Steve backed Fair Eva @ 6/4 (40%), it means he thought 6/4 was value, and that includes the fact it was ante-post so 6/4 included the chance of not running which for cnnections does not come in to it.
If connections agreed with Stevie’s assessment of Fair Eva’s chance of winning a Group 2; then they’d be nuts NOT to run. ie They knew the test of speed might not be absolutely in their favour, but Fair Eva still had a great chance of winning a Group 2.
Value Is EverythingI wouldn’t know what to take from that race other than that QK is a proper fighter who didn’t get a clear run but battled through that tight gap then buckled down and stretched her neck. She’s not as flashy looking as Fair Eva, but she seems to have more physical substance.
As to Fair Eva, I think I know even less about her than after her last run. I’m still convinced she has plenty speed. She was slightly off the leaders early but that was a jockey decision I think and she was alongside the winner until QK met that trouble. Smullen certainly rode her like a good horse, getting to work in good time to overcome the flat spot she’s shown in the past, but this time she found little. Perhaps because they ran out of turf before she could crank it up in this hotter race.
Maybe she had a bit of an off day. Certainly too early to write her off as a top-notcher. Biggest issue in the immediate future might be finding her ideal trip.
As for Frankel, he has another winner and another Group winner – just not the one we thought!!
Indeed Joni, instead of one top class two year old filly, Frankel now has two.
Value Is EverythingI am not complaining about Fair Eva not winning today. That was part of the risk in taking the 6/4. Only mugs would have taken 4/11 today.
The worry is about how this will affect Fair Eva going forward from today.
Just because I consider a race to be questionable as a progression point for a tilt at the Guineas does not mean I feel it’s impossible for the horse in question to win the upcoming race along the way.
I’ll be happy going forward to be sitting with 6/4 on a horse about to go off 4/11. It didn’t work this time but it was sound enough logic as far as I am concerned.
Fair Eva might bounce back over further but the question about whether she could be beaten has been answered in the affirmative and that dents confidence for me.
Fair Eva has gone from 4/1 to 10/1 for the Guineas and that’s not the way I like to see things panning out.
Charlton seemed to be saying that he hasn’t had a filly like Fair Eva before but he’s managed to get her beaten already, maybe that’s why he looks like the Orson Welles of the training ranks.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fair Eva beat Nations Alexander today by further than when they met previously, and she beat Kilmah by much further (9L today vs 4L last time). Is it not simply the case that she met a better class of filly today than in her previous races?
Fair Eva beat Nations Alexander today by further than when they met previously, and she beat Kilmah by much further (9L today vs 4L last time). Is it not simply the case that she met a better class of filly today than in her previous races?
She’s met top class two year old sprinters in conditions that suit them not her. Yes Frankel would’ve won at any trip but he is the greatest horse I have ever seen. For lesser mortals when taken out of their comfort zone things get tough.
This is why Roger Charlton doesn’t (generally) win big races he’s an average trainer. If you look back early in this thread the one doubt I had about Fair Eva winning the Guineas was the fact that she was trained by Charlton.
Three races in he’s already stuffed the filly.
Financially it doesn’t matter backed at 20/1 layed back to double the stake at 4.3/1. Not everything though is about money.
I think it proved the point I made earlier that fillies go best when there is consistency in who rides them. Jamie Spencer gave Queen Kindly a great ride today and even though there was a point where she was short of room, he didn’t switch her left or right to make a challenge and possibly ruin her momentum, he sat tight and waited for the gap to widen and took her through. He is not always everyones favourite jockey but when he connects with a horse for example Big Orange and this filly there is non better.
Well done Jamie, Richard Fahey and Queen Kindly today you showed your flashy sister what a speed Queen is capable of. I did feel that the first three home ran a brilliant race pulling away from the rest of the field and now we know that Fair Eva definitely needs further, but……..
waiting in the wings is Mori daughter of Midday booked to run on 23rd September in the Rockfel Stakes at Newmarket and the Fillies Mile on 7th October, both also targets for Fair Eva and the latter also a target for Aljeezera…what a shame that Roger Charlton didn’t listen to advice given to him regarding Fair Eva I think he might have ruined what might have been an unbeaten record as a 2yo for the filly.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I think Sunspangled is right – she was beaten by two better fillies at the trip. Maybe something will come to light but I just think she was beaten fair and square. It was interesting listening to the paddock guy on Racing UK before the race. He was adamant that Queen Kindly looked more the sprinter and she was easily his paddock pick. He said that Fair Eva was a lovely looking filly but that she looked much more a type who will improve with age. He proved to be right about QK and I hope he will be right about FE. Today is a blip and she must bounce back next time but I am confident that she will. As for Roger Charlton, he may be sitting at home tonight wondering if he made the right call and time may tell that it wasn’t. Hopefully it won’t do the horse any harm and we can see her win again in the Moyglare.
Tomorrow sees the return of Cunco who finally gets to run over a mile. There is not much to choose between him and Mr Scaramanga (my favourite Bond villain!) – and I also think Rebel De Lope will be a big danger. Cunco is a naughty boy who ran poorly last time so he has plenty to prove. He wears a hood tomorrow and hopefully this will concentrate the mind and we will have another winner.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Fair Eva beat Nations Alexander today by further than when they met previously, and she beat Kilmah by much further (9L today vs 4L last time). Is it not simply the case that she met a better class of filly today than in her previous races?
I think that’s the view I am going to take unless I see something to the contrary – on the track. Roly Poly was giving 3lbs and you have to think that on pedigree any extra distance would benefit her more than both Fair Eva and Queen Kindly.
Contrary to the popular media cliche that he is ‘always in the right place’ Smullen has made a complete mess of things on more than one occasion this season but I couldn’t see that he did much wrong on Fair Eva.
I think it proved the point I made earlier that fillies go best when there is consistency in who rides them. Jamie Spencer gave Queen Kindly a great ride today and even though there was a point where she was short of room, he didn’t switch her left or right to make a challenge and possibly ruin her momentum, he sat tight and waited for the gap to widen and took her through. He is not always everyones favourite jockey but when he connects with a horse for example Big Orange and this filly there is non better.
Personally, I don’t think Spencer did anything better than James McDonald. I suspect plenty of punters would have been more than happy to see McDonald on board at Goodwood.
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